In 2023 global coal demand increased to a record 8 687 Mt, marking a 2.5% y‑o‑y increase. This rise was primarily driven by countries heavily reliant on coal, such as China and India. Additionally, low hydropower output fuelled the demand for coal in power generation, which climbed by 2.5% to 5 855 Mt. Non-power coal use grew by 2.3%, reaching 2 833 Mt.

China, the world’s largest coal consumer, accounted for over 56% of global demand in 2023. The country’s coal consumption increased by 6% to 4 883 Mt, with the power sector accounting for 63% of its coal demand. India, the second-largest consumer, saw a 10% rise in coal demand, reaching a total of 1 245 Mt.

For 2024 global coal demand is projected to grow by 1.0%, setting a new all-time high of 8 771 Mt. The slower coal demand growth in Asia, partially offset by falling demand in advanced economies, results in slower global growth. Global coal demand continues its shift eastward, with China, India and ASEAN countries expected to consume three-quarters of total demand in 2024, a significant increase from around 35% at the start of the century.

In absolute terms, the most significant increases in 2024 are anticipated to have been in India (up 70 Mt, or 6%) and China (up 56 Mt, or 1.1%), together with others like Indonesia and Viet Nam. Conversely, the largest declines are expected to have taken place in the European Union (down 42 Mt, or 12%) and the United States (down 18 Mt, or 5%), with the electricity generating sector the main driver. Forecasts for the Russian Federation (hereafter “Russia”), the fourth-largest coal consumer, remain uncertain due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, which also makes Ukraine’s coal outlook unclear.

For our forecast period up to 2027 we anticipate coal demand to move in a narrow range. While growth in India and ASEAN countries counterbalance declines in the European Union and the United States, China continues to be the major determinant of global coal demand. In the electricity sector, despite the formidable expansion of renewables, strong electricity demand is expected to keep coal-fired power generation at similar levels to 2024.