International trade in coal rose by 10% in 2023, reaching a total of 1 510 Mt. Growth was recorded in the trade of both thermal coal (up 100 Mt) and met coal (up 42 Mt). Trade accounted for about 17% of global coal demand and more than three‑quarters of traded coal was thermal coal. Seaborne trade accounted for more than 90% of all traded coal in 2023, although land-based trade saw an increase during the year.

The Asia Pacific region once again increased its share of global coal imports, accounting for 84% of the total coal trade during 2023. In contrast, coal trade within the Atlantic Basin experienced a decline. This was propelled by Western bans and sanctions on Russian coal, lower overall demand in Europe, and strong growth in demand for coal imports in Asia, particularly China.

China saw the highest imports of coal in 2023 at around 481 Mt, followed by India (248 Mt) and Japan (167 Mt). Combined, these three countries received almost 60% of global coal imports in 2023. The largest exporters were Indonesia (521 Mt), serving mostly thermal coal, Australia (353 Mt) and Russia (211 Mt), with a combined share of almost three‑quarters of global coal exports in 2023. Both Chinese imports and Indonesian exports reached levels never achieved by any country before. Notably, Russian exports saw a significant shift to the east during 2023, following the EU ban on Russian coal imports in 2022. While two‑thirds of Russian exports were directed to Asian markets in 2022, this share surged to about 84% during 2023.

In 2024 we expect the global trade in coal to have reached a new all-time high of 1 545 Mt. Thermal coal trade is estimated to have risen by 27 Mt to a total of 1 178 Mt, while met coal trade is projected to have gained 18 Mt, reaching 368 Mt. The growth in imports has once again been led by China, where imports hit record high levels in September, growing 12% during the first three quarters. It is estimated to have surpassed 500 Mt of coal imports for the first time in 2024. This volume is more than twice that of the second-largest importer, India. In addition, it is likely that Viet Nam joined the top five importers during 2024, surpassing Chinese Taipei. Imports into Viet Nam are expected to have gained almost 19% in 2024 amid strong demand and stable domestic production. By contrast, Russian coal trade has faced increasing difficulties in 2024 amid Western sanctions, infrastructure disruptions and profitability issues, with total exports expected to have decreased by 6%.

Through to 2027 we anticipate the global coal trade to experience a reversal of trend, initiated by China and India. In the case of China, flat coal demand with healthy domestic production is set to lower the demand for imports. In India the ongoing push for domestic thermal coal production is expected to outpace the growth in demand. While other countries in Southeast Asia are estimated to see growing demand for thermal coal imports, this should be balanced by plans to phase out coal-fired power generation in many Western countries causing their imports to decrease.