Climate Resilience for Energy Transition in Egypt

Temperature

Between 1901 and 2013 temperatures in Egypt increased by an average of 0.1°C per decade. The rate accelerated between 2000 and 2020 with a temperature increase averaging 0.38°C per decade, which was higher than the world average (0.31°C per decade). As a result, the number of cooling degree days (CDDs) increased dramatically – by around 300 during 2000-2020 – while winter heating needs declined by over 50 heating degree days (HDDs) in the same period. UNEP’s recent study shows that 50% of all electricity is already being consumed for air conditioning during the peak summer months in Cairo.

Climate projections show that Egypt will continue to experience a higher level of warming than the world average.1 Compared with the pre-industrial period, temperatures in 2081-2100 could be around 2.5°C higher in a low-emissions scenario2 and around 6°C in a high-emissions scenario.3 The warming, coupled with urbanisation and population growth, is expected to trigger a significant increase in extreme heat events and electricity demand for cooling.

Rising temperatures could add stress to Egypt’s power generation. Natural gas power plants, which account for around three-quarters of the country’s electricity supply, can be negatively affected by a warmer climate. Climate projections show that two-thirds of Egypt’s natural gas power plants are projected to see an increase of over 2°C in 2080-2100 compared with 1850-1900 under a low-emissions scenario (Below 2°C)2 and an increase of over 5°C in a high-emissions scenario (Above 4°C).3 Studies show that increased ambient temperatures could lead to a decrease in air mass flow entering the gas turbine compressor and consequently lower the performance of natural gas power plants.

The generation efficiency of solar PV and wind power plants, which are expected to grow rapidly in Egypt’s power mix, could also degrade in a warmer climate, particularly during heatwaves. Solar PV and wind power plants that are generally designed for conditions of around 25°C could become less efficient in higher temperatures, such as 35°C. Climate projections show that over 80% of existing and planned solar PV capacity would experience over 20 more days per year with a maximum temperature above 35°C under a low-emissions scenario (Below 2°C)2 and over 60 days under a high-emissions scenario (Above 4°C)3 in 2080-2100 compared with 1850-1900. This is significantly higher than the world average, where less than 40% of solar PV capacity would be exposed to the same level (i.e. an increase of more than 60 days under a high-emissions scenario).

Wind power plants’ level of exposure to a maximum temperature above 35°C is even higher: almost 100% of existing capacity would see an increase of over 20 days under a low-emissions scenario, and over 80 days under a high-emissions scenario. The exposure level of wind power plants to warming is particularly notable given that only 7% of wind power capacity around the world would reach that exposure level (i.e. an increase of more than 80 days with a maximum temperature above 35°C), even under a high-emissions scenario.

The combination of increasing electricity consumption for cooling and decreasing generation efficiency from gas, solar and wind power plants could add strain to Egypt’s electricity systems. Climate resilience measures could help its electricity systems cope better with the adverse impacts of rising temperatures and heatwaves; possible examples include incorporating climate impact assessment into energy planning, additional cooling systems for thermal power plants, innovative design to cope with higher temperatures, improved energy efficiency and behavioural change.

Precipitation

Climate projections show a potential decrease in mean precipitation in northern Egypt while the trend is still uncertain in the rest of the country. Despite the uncertainty, most climate models show that a higher level of global warming would lead to a higher level of variability in precipitation and water flow, bringing higher risk of floods. 

Egypt has annual average rainfall of less than 80 mm, but most precipitation falls along the north coast (Mediterranean) and the Red Sea. While most parts of Egypt have remained dry, the severity and frequency of flash flooding in some regions have increased in recent years. For instance, heavy rainfall in April 2018 flooded Greater Cairo causing power outages for over 20 hours. Similarly, in March 2020 heavy rains combined with strong winds hit several cities in north-eastern Egypt, damaging transformers, transmission lines and towers. Financial losses in the electricity sector due to this event exceeded USD 13 million. The INFORM Climate Index assessed level of floods in Egypt is significantly higher than the world average, although the average risk of flooding shown in the index can mask regional differences across Egypt. Due to the size of its territory, precipitation patterns in Egypt record high variability depending on location.

Regional variability in future precipitation would have different impacts on two power generation technologies: natural gas power and hydropower, which accounted for 84% and 8% of total electricity generation respectively in 2020. While most natural gas power plants in Egypt are projected to see a slightly or moderately drier climate in the future, hydropower power plants are expected to experience a slightly wetter climate by 2100.

Climate projections show that around one-third of existing natural gas power plants would be exposed to an increase in consecutive dry days of over 10 in 2080-2100 compared with 1850-1900 in a low-emissions scenario (Below 2°C)2 and over 20 in a high-emissions scenario (Above 4°C).3 This level of exposure is notably higher than the global average: only 5% of gas power plants globally would be exposed to an increase of over 10 in 2080-2100 in a low-emissions scenario (Below 2°C), and 8% would see an increase of over 20 in a high-emissions scenario (Above 4°C).

The increasing number of consecutive dry days and the overall shift to a drier climate would become a concern for natural gas power plants. Currently, a majority of gas power plants in Egypt continue to rely on freshwater for cooling. A drier climate combined with population growth, economic development and geopolitical factors adds stress to gas power plants by increasing competition for freshwater. To tackle this issue, Egypt’s power sector is already exploring more water-efficient options or alternative water sources for cooling its gas power plants. The three most recently opened natural gas power plants, completed in 2018, are all designed to minimise the use of fresh water. The 4.8 GW Beni Suef power plant introduced a closed-loop cooling tower system that reuses cooling water. The 4.8 GW New Capital power plant adopted an air-cooling system with 12 giant fans, used for the first time in Egypt. The 4.8GW El Burullus power plant included wet cooling towers, which operate using water from the Mediterranean Sea instead of freshwater.

While natural gas power plants are projected to see a slightly or moderately drier climate, most hydropower plants in Egypt are likely to experience a wetter climate with increasing precipitation and water flow. As a result, Egypt is projected to see a higher hydropower generation capacity factor. Compared with the hydropower generation capacity factor of 2010-2019, that of 2060-2099 is projected to increase by 2.4% under a low greenhouse gas concentration scenario4 and by 7.5% under a higher emissions scenario.5

However, a wetter climate in areas with hydropower plants does not always bring positive impacts. The projected increase in heavy rainfall and pluvial floods could physically damage hydropower plants with sediment and floating debris. In a high-emissions scenario, the majority of Egypt’s hydropower plants are likely to be exposed to at least a 40% increase in their one-day maximum precipitation in 2080-2100 compared with 1850-1900. This level of exposure in Egypt is significantly higher than the world average, where only around 10% of hydropower plants would experience such level of increase in their one-day maximum precipitation. 

Sea level rise

More than 30% of the Nile delta is a lowland area (less than 2 metres above sea level) and faces severe risk of hazards such as coastal erosion, storm surge and flooding. Climate projections show that the sea level around the Mediterranean could rise by 0.4 metres in a low-emissions scenario2 and 0.7 metres in a high-emissions scenario3 in 2081-2100 compared with the 1995-2014 period. Estimates in Egypt’s first updated NDC show that sea level rise may reach 1 metre in some coastal areas of Egypt. In this case, several places in the Nile Delta, the northern coast and Sinai could be submerged by 2100.

This is particularly alarming since 95% of Egypt’s population lives in the Nile Valley and Delta and many energy infrastructure assets are located along the coast and in the Nile Delta. Respectively, 39% and 7% of installed gas and oil power plant capacity is located in areas below 10 metres above sea level. Most gas-fired power plants located in low-elevation areas (below 10 metres above sea level) are projected to be exposed to over 0.4 metres of sea level rise in a low-emissions scenario, and over 0.6 metres of sea level rise in a high-emissions scenario in 2081-2100.

Oil refineries in coastal areas are also exposed to sea level rise and associated impacts such as storm surge and flooding. Around 50% of refineries in Egypt are located in low-elevation areas, which is higher than the world average (34%). Among the refineries in low-elevation areas, almost 70% are projected to be exposed to over 0.4 metres of sea level rise in a low-emissions scenario (Below 2°C)2 in 2081-2100. In the high-emissions scenario (Above 4°C),3 all of the refineries in low-elevation areas would be subject to over 0.6 metres of sea level rise.

Scientific assessments of sea level rise and its physical impacts on power plants and refineries can guide measures to cope with the projected sea level rise. Egypt has already conducted a scoping study, Integrated Coastal Management in the Northern Coast of Egypt, and identified areas exposed to the physical impacts of coastal erosion, coastal flooding and other hazards under a high-emissions scenario.6 Based on the results of the scoping study, further assessments of risks to power plants and refineries will help energy companies and investors incorporate sea level rise risks into their plans for future operation. In addition, as Egypt’s NDC proposes, the development of an Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan and implementation of coastal protection measures (e.g. maritime walls, submersible barriers, soil fixation, artificial nourishment with sand, anti-flood structures and nature-based solutions) could contribute to enhancement of overall resilience against sea level rise.

Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change have become a priority in the government’s national policies and strategies over the past decade. The National Climate Change Council (NCCC) was founded in 2015 as the national authority in Egypt concerned with climate change and a focal point for the UNFCCC. The same year, Egypt’s first NDC was released, which covers the energy sector not only in terms of mitigation but also in the context of adaptation action packages. The document identifies challenges such as the negative impacts of rising temperatures on the efficiency of conventional power plants and photovoltaic cells; the risk of changing rainfall rates on hydropower generation; and the potential impact of sea level rise on power plants and networks located along the coasts. It proposed measures for adaptation, including an assessment of climate change impacts with the aim of finding safe locations for the construction of future power plants, together with building institutional and technical capacity and supporting research and technological development to enhance the climate resilience of the power sector.

Egypt updated its NDC in June 2022, including a review of the implementation of adaptation measures7 proposed in the first NDC. The updated NDC suggests additional adaptation actions in five sectors: water resources and irrigation; agriculture; coastal zones; urban development; and tourism. Although the climate resilience of the energy sector is not specifically addressed in the updated NDC, the cross-cutting measures (e.g. the improvement of weather forecasting and early warning systems to minimise the impacts of extreme weather events; structural anti-flood interventions) would contribute to the general enhancement of adaptation ability and resilience.

Egypt has focused on climate change adaptation and resilience in many other national policies, such as the Sustainable Development Strategy: Egypt Vision 2030 launched in 2016, the National Climate Change Strategy 2050 published in 2022, and the National Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction 2030 published in 2011 and updated in 2017.

The Sustainable Development Strategy: Egypt Vision 2030 (SDS) represents the national long-term political, economic and social vision for 2030. In this strategy, energy and the environment are identified as two of the ten key pillars. Under the energy pillar, energy security and carbon emissions reduction are emphasised, while the environmental pillar focuses on water management and coastal protection.

The National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS) 2050 was developed at the request of the NCCC, with the objective of creating a reference point for integrating the climate change dimension into general planning across all sectors in a way that supports the achievement of the country’s desired economic and development goals with a low-emissions approach. In order to enhance Egypt’s adaptive capacity and resilience to climate change and to alleviate the associated negative impacts, the NCCS proposes to enhance climate change action governance, preserve and expand green spaces, consider gender differences in adaptation programmes, enable policies and tools such as climate-risk insurance and green bonds, and integrate climate adaptation and resilience into infrastructure projects, minimising loss and damage to the country’s assets and ecosystems.

In the NCCS, the energy sector is seen as central to achieving sustainable economic growth and low-emission development in the country. It aims to increase the share of all renewable and alternative energy sources in the energy mix. The government has set a target for renewable energy to meet 42% of total electricity production by 2035, confirmed in both the NCCS and Egypt’s updated NDC.

Although the climate resilience of the energy sector is not the exact target of such measures, the planned diversification of power generation technologies could also improve climate resilience by reducing dependency on a single energy source. Other measures proposed in the NCCS (e.g. promoting small-scale decentralised systems, energy storage technologies such as batteries, and expanding interconnections) would also have positive effects by enhancing geographical diversification and improving energy sector climate resilience.

Besides climate and energy policies, climate resilience has been addressed in the National Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (NSDRR) 20308 with the objective of substantially reducing damage to critical infrastructure and disruption to basic services due to different types of disasters, including those related to climate change. The energy sector is presented as one of the most affected sectors, together with the environment, agriculture, water, housing and infrastructure. As one of the measures to enhance overall resilience, financing and investment in disaster risk reduction are suggested. Investment in renewable energy sources, the creation of a disaster risk fund, the incorporation of climate adaptation into national strategies and plans, and the implementation of disaster risk resilience projects are identified as indicators. In addition, enhancing preparedness, response, reconstruction and rehabilitation are also proposed.

For successful implementation of the proposed measures for energy sector climate resilience, a robust mechanism to track and monitor progress is essential. Despite the achievements made in identifying effective measures for climate resilience, discussions on monitoring implementation are still underdeveloped, especially for the energy sector adaptation and resilience. For instance, progress in the energy sector’s adaptation measures was rarely discussed when the second NDC reviewed the implementation of adaptation measures in other sectors (e.g. food security, urban areas and coastal zone management). Reviewing and tracking progress of the identified adaptation measures of the NDCs, NCCS and NSDRR would contribute to successful implementation and help the energy sector improve its resilience measures further. In particular, monitoring achievements in climate change impact assessments, diversification of energy technologies, financing and investment in climate resilience, and institutional and technical capacity building, could provide a useful snapshot of the current status and develop further actions to fill existing gaps.

Making the energy sector decision-making process climate-risk informed will be also critical for climate change adaptation. Egypt is projected to experience a higher increase in annual mean temperature and extreme heat events than the world average, while facing an increasing variability in precipitation and a sea level rise. Climate projections show that certain locations can be more exposed to climate hazards and some energy technologies tend to be more vulnerable to such hazards. To minimise adverse impacts of climate change on energy security, decision makers in the energy sector need to consider climate risks when they determine the energy mix, locations, generation and cooling technologies, and strategies for operation and maintenance.

This work was supported by the Clean Energy Transitions Programme, the IEA’s flagship initiative to transform the world’s energy system to achieve a secure and sustainable future for all. In particular, this publication was produced with the financial assistance of the Government of Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.