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Oil Market Report - February 2026
…Petrochemical feedstock products will represent more than half of this year’s gains, compared with only a third in 2025 when transport fuels dominated growth.World oil supply plunged by 1.2 mb/d in January to 106.6 mb/d, as severe winter weather disrupted North American operations, while outages and export constraints curtailed Kazakh, Russian and Venezuelan flows. Following gains of nearly 3.1 mb/d in 2025, world oil output is now forecast to rise by 2.4 mb/d in 2026, to 108.6 mb/d, with growth roughly evenly split between non-OPEC+ and OPEC+…
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From farms to fuel: Ukraine’s biomethane opportunity for energy security and European decarbonisation
…emissions gas. Home to the largest agricultural land area in Europe, Ukraine has the resource potential to become one of the continent’s leading biomethane producers, supplying both its domestic market and the EU via an already existing pipeline infrastructure.The first exports of biomethane come at a critical moment. Repeated Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have exposed the vulnerabilities of centralised energy supply. Although biomethane relies on the same gas distribution and transmission infrastructure as natural gas, its production is inherently more decentralised than domestic natural gas extraction, reducing exposure to disruptions affecting individual production sites. Biogas and…
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Oil Market Report - August 2025
…crude oil prices were largely unchanged in July, with North Sea Dated oscillating around $70/bbl as easing trade tensions and tighter sanctions against Russia were set against the outlook for a comfortably supplied market. By early August, however, prices tumbled by $3/bbl to $67/bbl after OPEC+ announced plans to fully unwind its 2.2 mb/d voluntary output cuts by September. Beneath the calm Oil prices have been caught in the crosshairs of fast-changing market dynamics. While new sanctions on Russia and Iran threaten to impact trade flows, weaker economic growth is poised to temper demand…
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Oil Market Report - September 2025
…Brent futures falling by about $2/bbl m-o-m to $67/bbl. Geopolitical concerns intensified amid dwindling hopes for a near-term peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. However, the prospect of looming oversupply dampened any positive price impetus, as investor sentiment towards oil remained strongly bearish. Pushed and pulled Oil markets are being pulled in different directions by a range of forces, with the potential for supply losses stemming from new sanctions on Russia and Iran coming against a backdrop of higher OPEC+ supply and the prospect of increasingly bloated oil balances. China continues to stockpile crude oil…
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Oil Market Report - October 2025
…while oil on water dropped 8 mb. Preliminary data for September show sharply higher oil stocks, led by a 102 mb build in oil on water.In calm trading, benchmark crude prices were little changed in September, as a looming supply surplus dampened the bullish impact of heightened Ukraine tensions and fresh sanctions against Russia and Iran. Price volatility continued to languish at historical lows. At the time of writing, ICE Brent futures were trading at around $64/bbl – down approximately $11/bbl year-to-date. Stocking up The oil market has been in surplus since the start of the…
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Oil Market Report - November 2025
…5 mb/d in 2026 on average to reach 108.7 mb/d. Non-OPEC+ accounts for 1.7 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d of the growth, respectively.A slew of unplanned outages, scheduled maintenance and continued disruptions to Russia’s downstream operations, pushed refinery margins to a two-year peak in Europe and Asia in early November. Global refinery runs slumped by 2.9 mb/d m-o-m to 81.5 mb/d in October but are set to increase sharply towards year-end. Runs are forecast to rise by 710 kb/d in 2025 and…
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Oil Market Report - December 2025
…mb/d and 108.6 mb/d, respectively.After weathering significant unplanned refinery outages in November, tightness in refined product markets has eased, but sanctions in 1Q26 will provide fresh challenges. The stark contrast between surging crude supplies and unexpectedly tight product markets has pushed refinery margins back to levels last seen in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Runs forecasts for 2026 have been increased to 84.4 mb/d, with growth raised to 750 kb/d.Global observed inventories rose to four-year highs in October, at 8 030 mb. Stock builds averaged 1.2 mb…
