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Oil Market Report - July 2025
…showed global oil stocks rose further, mainly in oil on water and the non-OECD.North Sea Dated crude increased by $7/bbl m-o-m to an average $71.35/bbl in June after trading in a wide $65-$80/bbl range. Israel’s mid-month air strikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets sent prices soaring, with Dated briefly surpassing $80/bbl but easing after a ceasefire was agreed. The decision by OPEC+ to further accelerate the unwinding of production cuts failed to move markets in a meaningful way given tighter fundamentals. Disconnects Benchmark crude oil prices rose…
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Energy crisis threatens world’s most vulnerable as cooking fuel shortages grow
The Energy Crisis hits the Homefront: A growing shortage of cooking fuels The Middle East crisis has highlighted the energy security risks for a fundamental need: the ability to cook a meal The conflict in the Middle East has triggered a global energy crisis of unprecedented magnitude. The daily volumes of oil lost to global markets in March 2026 surpassed the peak supply losses of the two major oil shocks of the 1970s combined.Previous energy crises affected economies and societies in profound ways, often forcing households to ration fuel for their cars and heating for their homes. The 2026…
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Oil 2025
…shifts in energy policies are affecting oil producers and consumers alike, with oil supply security remaining high on the international energy policy agenda.Oil 2025 looks beyond the short-term horizon covered in the IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report (OMR) to provide a comprehensive overview of evolving oil supply, demand, refining and trade dynamics through 2030. This Report presents detailed forecasts and analysis of oil demand fundamentals across fuels, sectors and regions as well as the supply outlook from planned upstream and downstream projects around the world. The results provide valuable insights on the prospects for spare oil production capacity…
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Oil Market Report - November 2025
…October data showed global stocks increased further, led by additional gains in oil on water.North Sea Dated crude fell by around $3/bbl m-o-m to $65/bbl in October. This was the grade’s fourth consecutive monthly decline amid concerns about weak fundamentals and looming oversupply. Dated barely held above $60/bbl mid-month – a four-year low – before rebounding by $5/bbl on the view that Washington’s sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil may curtail Russian oil flows. At the time of writing, Dated was trading around $62/bbl. Imbalances Global oil market balances are looking…
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Sheltering From Oil Shocks Introduction and context
The conflict in the Middle East has created the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. The volume of fuel supply offline now is higher than the supply loss during the oil shock of 1973 that led to the IEA’s creation and any disruption since then. Beyond the direct damage to energy infrastructure in the region, the crisis has led to a near halt in tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude and oil product flows through the Strait have fallen from around 20 million barrels per day (mb/d) before the conflict to…
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Oil Market Report - August 2025
…OECD industry stocks fell by 28.8 mb in June to hover near decade-lows of 2 758 mb, 88 mb below a year ago.Benchmark crude oil prices were largely unchanged in July, with North Sea Dated oscillating around $70/bbl as easing trade tensions and tighter sanctions against Russia were set against the outlook for a comfortably supplied market. By early August, however, prices tumbled by $3/bbl to $67/bbl after OPEC+ announced plans to fully unwind its 2.2 mb/d voluntary output cuts by September. Beneath the calm Oil prices have been caught in the…
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Designing an effective strategic stockpiling system for critical minerals
…important protective measure to safeguard countries from supply shocks and disruptions while they develop new, diversified sources of supply. Strategic stockpiles provide a way for countries to strengthen economic and national security, while also helping to deter future export controls and limiting their impact. Strategic stocks are an insurance policy against short-term disruptions Strategic stocks – held specifically for emergency purposes with the involvement of the government – have demonstrated effectiveness across various sectors. A notable example is the oil market, where stockpiles have played an important role in mitigating severe economic impacts for decades. After the oil shock of 1973…
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State of Energy Policy 2026 Executive summary
…five years. These events have brought long-standing energy security concerns back into sharp focus while exposing new vulnerabilities. They also highlight energy’s central role in geopolitics, with recent shocks driving an exceptionally active period of energy policy-making across both conventional and emerging dimensions of security, reminiscent of the wide-ranging and extensive policy responses to the oil crises of the 1970s.While no single narrative defines the shifts seen in 2025 in energy policy, the cost of living, competitiveness and resilient supply chains emerged as central themes alongside long-standing policy priorities relating to energy security, efficiency…
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7 certainties about energy for this age of uncertainty
…the IMF and Stanford University, has hit unprecedented levels in recent months.But in this time of flux, there are still some important trends that we can identify with some confidence. Here are seven that can help us keep our bearings: The world has entered the age of electricity Oil and gas will still be widely used for many years to come, but the use of electricity is growing twice as a fast as overall energy demand. It’s the key energy input to the most dynamic parts of the global economy – such as AI, data centres and high-tech…
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The Middle East and Global Energy Markets
…market impacts of the conflict in the Middle East and continues to closely monitor the latest developments.The disruption to oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy infrastructure across the region have major implications for energy security and affordability – and for the world economy. The IEA's Executive Director has said the combined impacts amount to "the greatest threat to global energy security in history." The war in the region that began on 28 February has impeded energy trade flows through the Strait, creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market…