Oil 2025

Global oil markets have so far had a turbulent 2025. Heightened trade tensions and uncertainty have weighed on the world economy and, by extension, oil demand growth. Combined with the recent OPEC+ decision to accelerate the unwinding of oil production curbs that have been in place for several years, these factors have recently pushed international oil prices to four-year low in April and early May. At the same time, shifts in energy policies are affecting oil producers and consumers alike, with oil supply security remaining high on the international energy policy agenda.

Oil 2025 looks beyond the short-term horizon covered in the IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report (OMR) to provide a comprehensive overview of evolving oil supply, demand, refining and trade dynamics through 2030. This Report presents detailed forecasts and analysis of oil demand fundamentals across fuels, sectors and regions as well as the supply outlook from planned upstream and downstream projects around the world. The results provide valuable insights on the prospects for spare oil production capacity, product supply and trade flows through 2030. Oil 2025 also explores the implications of surging output of natural gas liquids (NGLs) in an era of petrochemical-driven demand growth.