Energy crisis threatens world’s most vulnerable as cooking fuel shortages grow

The conflict in the Middle East has triggered a global energy crisis of unprecedented magnitude. The daily volumes of oil lost to global markets in March 2026 surpassed the peak supply losses of the two major oil shocks of the 1970s combined.

Previous energy crises affected economies and societies in profound ways, often forcing households to ration fuel for their cars and heating for their homes. The 2026 crisis is being felt across the globe – and households in emerging and developing economies are now facing a particularly severe challenge: whether there is enough fuel simply to cook a meal, and whether they can still afford it.

At the centre of this sits liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), the world's most widely used cooking fuel. Around 3.4 billion people across the developing world use LPG as their primary source of energy for cooking. As of 2025, 30% of all seaborne LPG exports transited through the Strait of Hormuz.

Developing Asia accounts for the largest share of LPG use for cooking, with almost 2.4 billion people using it as their main cooking fuel. India and Indonesia have relied heavily on LPG in successful campaigns to expand clean cooking access, shifting more than 800 million people away from using wood, charcoal, kerosene and other harmful fuels since 2010. Today, 90% of Indonesian households rely on LPG for cooking, as do 80% of households in India. However, both countries are net importers of LPG, with Middle East producers supplying a significant share of their needs. In 2025, around two-thirds of the LPG consumed in India transited through the Strait of Hormuz.

In March 2026, as shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz plunged amid the Middle East conflict, the volumes of LPG exported through the strait fell by around 80%, dropping from 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) on average in 2025 to 0.3 mb/d. Almost all of the LPG exported from the Middle East in 2025 was delivered to Asia. Nearly 60% of the volumes exported to Asia served cooking needs across households, restaurants, street food vendors and other commercial or public establishments. This amount was sufficient to meet the cooking needs of 820 million people. The remainder was mostly used for water heating and as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry, a segment dominated by China, where there is some flexibility to switch to alternative feedstocks when more cost-effective.

India’s LPG imports have been particularly affected, dropping by more than half over the first two months of the conflict, a loss of around 430 kb/d. The government responded by instructing domestic refineries to maximise LPG output, adding an estimated 180 kb/d. Additional demand-side measures have been introduced to limit the impact on household cooking (see table further down). Companies have also secured some supplementary supply from alternative sources, but a vessel from the United States needs around 40 days to reach Mumbai, compared with 4 to 5 days from the Strait of Hormuz. The amount of LPG India can hold in storage, meanwhile, covers just over 10 days of consumption, providing only a limited buffer during supply disruptions. The reported impacts include commercial consumers not being able to access their pre-conflict LPG volumes, and both commercial and household consumers facing significantly higher prices on unregulated markets. According to the latest available information, the government has issued orders to ensure commercial customers receive at least 70% of their pre-conflict LPG volumes. Local media have also reported increased population movements from cities to rural areas, where some consumers expected to be able to access cooking fuels, including wood and charcoal, more easily.

The impacts of the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz on cooking fuels have been felt beyond India. Few countries have strategic LPG reserves, and total known LPG storage capacity – including commercial import, export and domestic facilities – ranges between 10 and 75 days of national consumption. However, not all of this storage can be accessed to meet local demand in times of crisis. Recognising this vulnerability, several countries across Africa and developing Asia, including Rwanda and Viet Nam, had already begun expanding their domestic LPG reserves in recent years. As the current crisis has evolved, many others have announced similar plans (see table further down).

To counter the impacts of the disruptions to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, the IEA on 11 March launched the largest ever release of emergency oil stocks by its Member countries, bolstering the supply of oil products, including LPG, available on the market. The IEA also published on 20 March the Sheltering from Oil Shocks report, highlighting specific measures that governments can take to help ensure LPG remains available to households for cooking.

Known damage to LPG-related infrastructure sites in Qatar, Oman and Iran has already resulted in a production loss of around 170 kb/d. Eight additional LPG-related sites in the region have reportedly been hit, but the full extent of the damage to them is unknown at this stage.

Prices for LPG imports surged sharply across all major benchmarks in March, with India and East Africa peaking at 90% above their 2025 average and West Africa at 70% above. The price spike in West Africa was not driven by any local supply shortage, as the region sources almost none of its LPG from Gulf countries. It reflects the global nature of LPG markets, where supply disruptions in one region rapidly affect prices in others. African LPG importers were therefore not spared from the price shock. This has eroded the affordability of LPG for households in countries where prices are deregulated. It has also increased fiscal pressures where governments or state‑owned enterprises have often absorbed the higher costs.

Based on IEA estimates, 45% of people cooking with LPG in sub-Saharan Africa are now spending at least 1 percentage point more of their income on cooking fuel than before the crisis. Poorer households, many of which are more recent adopters of clean cooking solutions, face steeper impacts. One in eight households has seen spending on LPG take up at least an additional 10% of their income – with many of them likely to revert to using charcoal or wood in the long run in areas where supplies remain accessible. The price spikes are also creating headwinds for extending clean cooking access to households lacking it. Before the crisis, LPG represented the most cost-effective solution for providing clean cooking access to over 60% of households across sub-Saharan Africa.

In response to the heightened volatility in global fuel markets, governments have adopted a range of measures to shield consumers from the impacts. Since the onset of the crisis, the IEA has been tracking these policy responses, showing that most interventions have focused on price stabilisation, including price caps and direct fuel subsidies. The IEA has developed a tool to help governments assess the impacts of different tax and tariff reforms on both affordability and fiscal costs, including how such measures can be more effectively targeted toward households most in need. (see below section on tool)

Many policy responses are increasingly aimed at encouraging households to shift away from imported fuels, particularly toward electricity for cooking. Countries such as India and Indonesia have introduced measures to reduce the upfront cost of electric cookstoves and have seen a corresponding surge in electric appliance purchases.

Similar trends are emerging in parts of Africa. Across the continent, around 80% of households using LPG for cooking already have access to electricity – although only about one-third benefit from a reliable supply, which remains a critical precondition for households to be willing to switch to electric cooking. More broadly, tackling upfront equipment costs remains central to improving affordability. In sub-Saharan Africa, zero‑rating VAT for purchasing clean cookstoves across technologies could enable around 10 million more people to adopt clean cooking solutions, complementing efforts to expand reliable electricity access.

To both safeguard existing access amid the crisis and continue to bring clean cooking solutions to households who lack them, the IEA is hosting a second Summit on Clean Cooking in Africa in Nairobi on 9-10 July 2026. The first Summit mobilised USD 2.2 billion in commitments, of which USD 470 million has already been disbursed. Building on this progress, the upcoming Summit aims to secure new commitments and advance policy efforts to strengthen fuel security and accelerate the provision of clean cooking access to all.