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Manufacturing and Trade Model
…and Trade (MaT) Model was first developed for the 2024 edition of Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) to produce scenario projections of manufacturing and trade across six key energy technology supply chains. These cover solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, electric cars, batteries, electrolysers and heat pumps. This model is now used to generate detailed sector-by-sector and region-by-region long-term scenarios in IEA publications such as the World Energy Outlook and Global EV Outlook.The MaT model is part of the IEA’s broader modelling framework and is closely linked to the Global Energy and Climate Model (GEC)…
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Wind
…Although wind power continues to face supply chain issues, rising costs and permitting delays today, global capacity is still expected to nearly double to over 2 000 gigawatts (GW) by 2030 as both advanced and developing economies tackle these barriers.
Around 85% of capacity additions for wind are set to be onshore, with capacity expected to rise by more than 730 GW (or 45%) through 2030. Offshore wind additions of 140 GW are expected over the same period. Further boosting offshore capacity, which is particularly sensitive to macroeconomic and supply chain pressures, would require effective auction design and supportive policy.
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Energy Security
…lessen in many parts of the world in the coming decades as clean energy transitions advance, the threat posed by oil supply disruptions will not disappear anytime soon.Even once global demand starts to decline structurally, oil will remain an important part of the energy mix for some time. There is also good reason to believe that oil supply disruptions are even more likely to occur in the coming decades than they are today. This is due to an elevated risk of supply-demand imbalances, increasing supply concentration for both crude oil and oil products, a highly uncertain geopolitical outlook…
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Bioenergy
Led by bioenergy, renewable fuels could approach 6% of energy demand from industry, buildings and transport in 2030
By 2030, renewable fuels are set to account for 5.5% of energy consumption from the industry, building and transport sectors. Demand is due to expand in all regions, but it is concentrated in China, Brazil, Europe, India and the United States, which collectively support more than two-thirds of the forecasted growth. All five countries and regions have dedicated support policies for several – and, in some cases, all – renewable fuels. These vary by fuel, sector and country, but they often include…
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Global Energy and Climate Model Macro drivers
…Out to 2030, our GDP assumptions at a country and regional level are based on the IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2025), with global GDP projected to grow by 3% annually over this period. After 2030, GDP growth assumptions are based on Oxford Economics forecasts and the application of the Solow growth model. The Solow model estimates future GDP on a country and regional basis by accounting for labour supply, capital stock, and total factor productivity (TFP). TFP growth reflects catch-up dynamics in lower income countries and convergence towards advanced economy levels. In GEC Model 2025 scenarios, the global economy…
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Oil 2025 Executive summary
…market outlook. Since the start of the year, major economic forecasters have cut their outlooks for world GDP growth in 2025 by roughly half a percentage point to around 2.8% and see a below-trend pace of about 3% annually for the remainder of the decade, with knock-on implications for oil demand. With conflicts in the Middle East region at risk of intensifying and trade negotiations ongoing, uncertainties surrounding our forecasts are substantial. At the same time, a decision by the OPEC+ producer group, led by Saudi Arabia, to start unwinding oil production curbs in May 2025 is…
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The Implications of Oil and Gas Field Decline Rates Executive summary
…thorough understanding of the rate at which production from existing oil and gas fields declines over time is more important than ever. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has long examined this issue. Decline rates – the annual rate at which production declines from an existing oil or gas field – underpin our analysis of market balances and investment needs across all outlook scenarios.Nearly 90% of annual upstream oil and gas investment since 2019 has been dedicated to offsetting production declines rather than to meet demand growth. Investment in 2025 is set to be around USD 570 billion, and if this persists…
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Electricity 2026 Demand
…Amid robust growth, the next five years will add on average 50% more electricity demand per year than over the past decade. The brisk pace will be supported by growing industries, electric vehicles, space cooling, and data centres, among many other end uses. Electricity consumption is now projected to grow at least 2.5 times faster than overall energy demand, hastening the world’s transition to an electricity-based economy. In tandem, the relationship between electricity demand and economic growth is undergoing a paradigm shift. Traditionally, electricity use has closely tracked economic expansion, excluding periods of global financial crises. However…
- Executive summary
- Demand
- Supply
- Grids
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The future of energy security
…with Tan See Leng, Singapore’s Minister for Manpower and Minister-in-Charge of Energy, Science and Technology, and Leila Benali, Morocco’s Minister of Energy Transition and Sustainable Development. Speaking on the sidelines of the IEA’s 2026 Ministerial Meeting, they discuss the fast-evolving energy security challenges facing their countries and the measures they are taking to tackle them. IEA Chief Energy Economist Tim Gould also joins the episode to highlight key findings from the recent World Energy Outlook 2025 report, which explores the potential implications of a shifting and multifaceted energy security context for decision-makers worldwide.
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New podcast episode explores future of energy security with Singapore and Morocco’s energy ministers
…Energy, Science and Technology, and Leila Benali, Morocco’s Minister of Energy Transition and Sustainable Development. Speaking on the sidelines of the IEA’s 2026 Ministerial Meeting, they discuss the fast-evolving energy security challenges facing their countries and the measures they are taking to tackle them. IEA Chief Energy Economist Tim Gould also joins the episode to highlight key findings from the recent World Energy Outlook 2025, which explores the potential implications of a shifting and multifaceted energy security context for decision-makers worldwide.The Everything Energy podcast offers fresh perspectives on a wide range of leading global energy…