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Oil Market Report - May 2026
…prices, a weaker economic environment and demand-saving measures will increasingly impact fuel use.Global oil supply declined by a further 1.8 mb/d in April to 95.1 mb/d, taking total losses since February to 12.8 mb/d. Output from Gulf countries affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels. Higher production and exports from the Atlantic Basin provide some relief. Assuming flows through the Strait gradually resume from June, global oil supply is projected to decline by 3.9 mb/d on average in 2026…
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Oil Market Report - November 2025
… Highlights World oil demand growth rebounded to 920 kb/d in 3Q25, mainly due to stronger deliveries in China. The third-quarter increase was more than double 2Q25’s 430 kb/d y-o-y expansion, as the macroeconomic picture broadly improved on easing trade tensions. Worldwide 2025 gains of 790 kb/d y-o-y are led by the United States, China and Nigeria, up by about 120 kb/d y-o-y each. Global growth will maintain this rate in 2026, at 770 kb/d y-o-y.The relentless upturn in global oil supply paused in October…
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Oil Market Report - July 2025
…Disconnects Benchmark crude oil prices rose by around $7/bbl on average in June, trading in a wide range between $65/bbl and $80/bbl. Israel’s air strikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets sent prices soaring mid-month, with North Sea Dated briefly surpassing $80/bbl before returning to pre-conflict levels after a ceasefire accord was reached. At the time of writing, Dated was trading just above $72/bbl, down $15/bbl on a year ago.Escalating geopolitical tensions were set against a backdrop of an apparently oversupplied market. In June, global oil production rose by 950…
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Oil Market Report - August 2025
…d in 2Q25 occurred entirely in the non-OECD. Consumption in the OECD was flat, with Japan at multi-decade lows.Global oil supply was largely unchanged in July at 105.6 mb/d, with a 230 kb/d fall in OPEC+ output offset by an equal increase in non-OPEC+. Higher OPEC+ targets announced for September help boost global oil supply growth to 2.5 mb/d this year and 1.9 mb/d in 2026, of which non-OPEC+ accounts for 1.3 mb/d and 1 mb/d, respectively.Global crude runs will approach an all-time…
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Oil Market Report - April 2026
…and analysis from the April OMR Highlights Oil demand is expected to contract by 80 kb/d this year, as the Iran war upends our global outlook. This is 730 kb/d less than in last month’s Report and a forecast 1.5 mb/d 2Q26 decline would be the sharpest since Covid-19 slashed fuel consumption. Initially, the deepest cuts in oil use have come in the Middle East and Asia Pacific, mainly for naphtha, LPG and jet fuel. However, demand destruction will spread as scarcity and higher prices persist.Global oil supply plummeted by 10.1 mb…
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Oil Market Report - March 2025
…as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. Highlights Growth in global oil demand is set to accelerate to just over 1 mb/d this year, from 830 kb/d in 2024, reaching 103.9 mb/d. Asia accounts for almost 60% of gains, led by China where petrochemical feedstocks will provide the entirety of growth. Amid an unusually uncertain macroeconomic climate, recent delivery data have been below expectations, leading to slightly lower estimates for 4Q24 and 1Q25 growth at 1.2 mb/d y-o-y.World oil supply rose by 240 kb/d in…
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Gas Market Report, Q2-2026
…a significant amount of new LNG capacity that had been on track to come online in the second half of this decade. While gas producers are making efforts to increase supply, the demand side is set to play a key role in balancing the market – particularly in Asia, where fuel switching is already picking up alongside energy-saving measures.The current energy crisis highlights the need to further strengthen the architecture of global gas supply security. The International Energy Agency (IEA) continues to support this process, including through the permanent Working Party on Natural Gas and Sustainable Gases Security (GWP).
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Luxembourg 2026
Energy Policy Review Government action plays a pivotal role in ensuring secure and sustainable energy transitions. Energy policy is critical not just for the energy sector but also for meeting environmental, economic and social goals. Governments need to respond to their country’s specific needs, adapt to regional contexts and help address global challenges. In this context, the International Energy Agency (IEA) conducts Energy Policy Reviews to support governments in developing more impactful energy and climate policies.This Energy Policy Review was prepared in partnership between the Government of Luxembourg and the IEA. It draws on the IEA’s extensive…
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Oil Market Report - January 2026
…of $60.07/bbl mid-month – the weakest since early 2021. Buffer zone The new year got off to a turbulent start as geopolitical tensions rose around Iran and Venezuela, bringing new uncertainties regarding their future oil exports. Brent crude oil prices jumped by $6/bbl to around $66/bbl in the early weeks of January before easing to $64/bbl at the time of writing.Oil exports from both Iran and Venezuela were already under pressure. Iranian loadings dropped by 350 kb/d from October’s recent high to 1.6 mb/d over November and December, with volum...
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The Implications of Oil and Gas Field Decline Rates
…outlook for oil and gas supply and, by extension, for market balances.The International Energy Agency (IEA) has long examined this issue, and a detailed understanding of decline rates is at the heart of IEA modelling and analysis, underpinning the insights provided by the scenarios in the World Energy Outlook.This new report – based on analysis of the production records of around 15 000 oil and gas fields around the world – explores the implications of accelerating decline rates, growing reliance on unconventional resources, and evolving project development patterns for the global oil and gas supply landscape, for energy security and for…
