The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) has a long pedigree in the International Energy Agency (IEA) family of scenarios. It was introduced in 2019 with this name, but it has much in common with the previous New Policies Scenario that dates back to the 2010 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO). The intention of this scenario is to reflect the prevailing direction of travel for the energy system based on a detailed reading of the latest policy settings in countries around the world. It takes into account specific energy, climate and related industrial policies that have been adopted or put forward, as well as policy intentions not yet codified into law but supported by markets, infrastructure and financial conditions.

Like the Current Policies Scenario, the STEPS is an exploratory scenario in that it does not target a predetermined outcome. Instead, it sets the starting conditions and sees where they lead. As such, it does not assume that aspirational goals, such as those included in some Nationally Determined Contributions, are achieved. It is grounded in what policies are actually in place or planned across different sectors of the energy economy.

This does not make the STEPS a forecast – as said on many occasions, the IEA does not have a long-term forecast. Policies and circumstances will undoubtedly change, and we do not seek to anticipate or predict those changes. The aim of this scenario is simply to provide a coherent, rigorous, data-driven framework for assessing how the energy sector might evolve, to better inform the important decisions that are being taken today.

The methodology for the STEPS has been consistent over time, but the modelling approaches have evolved across successive iterations of the scenario. Among other things, there has been a concerted effort to develop insights into energy supply chains, including those for critical minerals. Work on electricity has been underpinned by granular hourly modelling of the operation of power systems, and by detailed consideration of new sources of demand such as data centres and artificial intelligence (AI). New geospatial analysis is now a regular feature of IEA modelling and analyses.