International coal trade grew by 3% in 2024, reaching a new record of 1 544 Mt. This growth was driven by increases in both thermal coal (up 26 Mt to 1 176 Mt) and met coal (up 21 Mt to 368 Mt). Coal trade accounted for approximately 18% of global coal demand, with thermal coal making up more than three-quarters of total traded volumes. Seaborne trade continued to dominate, representing over 90% of global coal trade in 2024.

The Asia Pacific region further strengthened its dominance, accounting for 85% of global coal imports in 2024. China led global imports in 2024 with 548 Mt, an unprecedented figure for any country in history, followed by India (237 Mt) and Japan (162 Mt). Together, these three countries represented over 60% of global coal imports. On the export side, Indonesia remained the top exporter with 555 Mt, primarily thermal coal, followed by Australia (363 Mt) and Russia (198 Mt), which directed 75% of its exports to Asia in 2024. Combined, these three countries accounted for nearly 74% of global coal exports in 2024.

After years of growth, global coal trade is expected to decline by 5% to 1 468 Mt in 2025, reversing the previous upward trend. Thermal coal trade is set to decrease by 6% to 1 111 Mt, while met coal trade is expected to contract by 3% to 357 Mt. This shift is primarily driven by China, where abundant stocks and sluggish demand have driven its imports down by around 58 Mt to 489 Mt. Similarly, in India domestic thermal coal production is flat while demand is weak, keeping imports at around 235 Mt. Chinese Taipei, Korea and Japan, with negligible domestic production, are also expected to reduce coal imports in 2025. Meanwhile, the European Union is expected to maintain their coal import levels at 70 Mt, effectively pausing the structural decline seen in recent years.

Mirroring trends in importing countries, Indonesia, which is Asia’s key swing supplier, is expected to reduce its coal exports by at least 9% in 2025, bringing volumes down to 505 Mt. Similarly, Australia and Colombia are expected to experience export contractions, with volumes falling by 4 Mt and 11 Mt, respectively, largely due to persistently low international coal prices that continue to undermine production economics. Furthermore, South African exports are forecast to decline modestly by 1 Mt.

Looking ahead to 2030, global thermal coal trade is expected to continue its downward trajectory to a level of 936 Mt. This trend is primarily driven by developments in China and India. In China slightly declining coal demand combined with strong domestic production is likely to reduce the need for imports. Similarly, India’s ongoing expansion of domestic thermal coal output is expected to outpace demand growth, further curbing import requirements. At the same time, many Western countries are advancing their coal phase-out strategies, contributing to a broader decline in global thermal coal trade.

In contrast, the outlook for met coal is somewhat more resilient. After the decline in 2025, met coal trade in 2030 returns to 2024 levels. We revised our previous forecast upwards largely due to slower than anticipated deployment of low-carbon steelmaking technologies, such as hydrogen-based direct reduction furnaces.