In 2024, global coal production hit a record high of 9.1 billion tonnes, largely driven by increased output in China, India and Indonesia. China retained its position as the world’s leading coal producer, maintaining output at 4 666 Mt. Coal remains the primary energy source in both China and India, making domestic production a cornerstone of their energy security strategies. Following supply shortages in 2021, both countries have ramped up coal production for several years in a row.

At 9 111 Mt, global coal production in 2025 is projected to remain at 2024’s level. This marks a plateau before entering an expected downturn later in the decade. The decrease reflects weaker output in major exporters such as Indonesia (output at 778 Mt) and Australia (output at 446 Mt), where lower prices and weaker import demand weighed on supply. China has maintained growth but at a slower pace, reaching 4 730 Mt as authorities implemented summer supply cuts to manage inventories amid low prices. India’s production is projected to remain broadly stable at 1 089 Mt, supported by captive and commercial mines despite seasonal disruptions. In contrast to previous years, US output has risen to 473 Mt, driven by policy measures that improved mine economics and supported unit availability. The European Union is expected to maintain a constant output level of 242 Mt, centred on lignite to meet power generation needs, although its structural decline persists.

Over the forecast horizon, global coal production is expected to decline gradually from the 2025 level, trending down to 8 641 Mt by 2030. The reduction is led by China, although it comes with uncertainties, followed by smaller but more certain declines in the European Union and the United States, as phase-out schedules and cost pressures accelerate. However, US policy support slows the pace of contraction, with a possibility that the actual decline may be even smaller. Output contracts in Indonesia as rising domestic demand is outpaced by shrinking exports, and China’s output declines in line with lower consumption. India remains the main source of incremental growth, supported by captive and commercial blocks, but this is insufficient to offset reductions elsewhere. Overall, global supply trends lower during the second half of the decade.