Forthcoming export-oriented coal projects in our database have a total capacity of 493 Mtpa at the time of writing, 63 Mtpa higher than in our previous report. This increase in the project pipeline is due to improved research on Indonesia rather than more projects actually being developed. This report classifies projects as either more advanced or less advanced based on whether they have received the necessary approvals and permits in their respective countries. The capacity of less-advanced projects declined from 275 Mtpa to 210 Mtpa. Some projects failed to obtain environmental approvals due to legal challenges and public opposition. From the 2024 list, 15 projects have been cancelled or shelved in 2025.

Several less-advanced projects have transitioned into more-advanced stages, as many were awaiting administrative approvals and environmental licences. This transition, combined with the addition of new advanced projects in Indonesia, has increased the project pipeline by 127 Mtpa. In 2025, seven projects became operational, adding a total capacity of 26 Mtpa. As a result, the net growth of the more-advanced pipeline amounts to 101 Mtpa.

In terms of annual tonnage capacity, the projects are concentrated in Australia (58%), followed by Russia (13%) and Indonesia (8%). Due to the still limited transparency in some countries, these figures should be interpreted with caution.

Some trends observed last year have continued. In Russia producers are advancing infrastructure development in the Far East to support specific coal projects. In Africa there is renewed interest in projects in Mozambique. Australia is progressing with met coal developments, while market conditions have driven the sale of several assets to larger mining firms. In the United States the new administration has adopted a more favourable stance towards coal, introducing measures to promote production and demand, which is expanding the project pipeline.

Activity in mergers and acquisitions, which was driven by high coal prices between 2022 and 2024, slowed significantly in 2025. Nevertheless, some transactions have gone ahead, notably in Queensland, Australia. In 2024, BHP and Mitsubishi divested from the Blackwater and Daunia met coal mines and sold them to Whitehaven Coal Ltd, which later sold 30% of its stake in Blackwater to Nippon Steel (20%) and JFE Steel (10%). Stanmore also sold part of the southern section of its Wards Well coal deposit to Peabody in late 2024 and acquired Eagle Downs in August 2024, an asset that is undergoing further development studies prior to construction.

In June 2024, Anglo American began the divestment of its met coal assets in Queensland. Zashvin agreed to purchase one-third of Anglo’s share in Jellibah Group, concluded in January 2025. Peabody agreed to buy Anglo American’s Queensland mines; however, this was terminated on 19 August 2025, as was the related sale of the Dawson mine to PT Bukit Mandur Mandiri Utama.

In Indonesia, Adaro Energy has rebranded as AlamTri Resources and officially transferred 75% of its ownership of PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia, which includes Adaro Indonesia and Balangan Coal Companies, through a public offering to existing shareholders.

The proportion of thermal coal in more-advanced projects has slightly decreased while remaining unchanged in less-advanced projects. The share of thermal coal projects at the more-advanced stage would have been smaller if not for improved data transparency on projects in Indonesia. The reduction in capacity for less-advanced thermal coal projects is attributed to cancellations or shelving; the remaining thermal coal projects are located in Australia, Indonesia and Mozambique, targeting the Chinese and Indian markets.

Met coal’s share of less-advanced projects has declined due to their transition into more-advanced stages. The announcement of a coal mine expansion in Mozambique has increased the pipeline of less-advanced projects with a combined met and thermal coal output. In the short to medium term, steel production from iron ore will continue to rely on met coal, as alternative inputs are not expected to achieve large-scale adoption yet. This reliance is driving continued development of met coal projects. Currently, two-thirds of the more-advanced pipeline is focused on met coal extraction, although many of them will also produce thermal coal.

Australia remains the predominant location for new and expanding export-oriented coal mining projects, with a total of 44 projects at both the less-advanced and more-advanced stages. Projects at the more-advanced stage are categorised as mixed coal developments, followed by thermal and met coal. Less-advanced and newly proposed projects are dominated by thermal and mixed coal. Australia accounts for 56% of the global coal project pipeline, although this figure should be interpreted with caution due to the high level of transparency in project reporting compared with other major coal exporters. Five projects have recently moved from the less-advanced to the more-advanced stages: Caval Ridge Mine Horse Pit Extension, Jellinbah Central North Extension, Lake Vermont Meadowbrook Project, Mandalong Southern Extension and Mount Thorley Warkworth Extension.

In April 2024, the Queensland government approved the environmental impact statement for the Lake Vermont Meadowbrook Project, an extension of Lake Vermont mine, with an expected capacity of 5.5 Mtpa, and mine operations are planned to start in December 2028. Similarly, after securing all mining licences in early 2024, Mount Thorley entered phase two of construction and aims to begin operations in 2029.

Three new mines were added to the IEA database at the more-advanced level. Plumtree North Mine, a project in Queensland, is meant to expand the capacity of Bowen Coking Coal’s Burton Complex by 5.5 Mtpa. According to Bowen’s 2025 mid-year report, construction is ahead of schedule and it is expected to be operational in 2026. The Moorlands coal project was also recently acquired by Wintime and TerraCom, with a clear timeline to develop and construct the mine during 2025 and 2026. Lastly the New South Wales government approved the extension of the Boggabri mine in early 2024 to produce up to 8.6 Mtpa, with reports of construction underway to bring the project online by 2026.

Low thermal coal prices are affecting the development timeline for thermal projects. Stanmore halted operations at its Marvis Downs mine within the Millenium complex due to a challenging ramp-up and low production volumes. Moreover, environmental policies and legal decisions have stalled the construction and permitting of projects. The New South Wales Court of Appeal blocked the Mount Pleasant life extension on a technicality relating to the Independent Planning Commission’s planning consent failing to assess adequately the effect of Scope 3 emissions on the mine’s locality. Others, such as the Newstan Mine Extension that would have produced up to 3.2 Mtpa, were withdrawn from consideration as a State Significant Development Project. Despite these conditions, one project did progress in 2025: the construction of the Carborough Downs Extension was completed and began operations, producing up to 5 Mtpa.

In response to punitive sanctions from Western countries, Russia remains committed to supporting its coal industry by redirecting exports to China and India. Currently, 63% of its coal-hauling rail traffic is directed to the eastern route. Reflecting a more favourable market outlook, the share of met coal projects has grown rapidly compared with thermal coal projects. Due to a challenging financial environment, Russian Railways has delayed construction of phase three of the Eastern Polygon Expansion, aimed at facilitating the movement of freight from Siberia to China and the Far East. This project would increase transport capacity from 180 Mtpa to 270 Mtpa by 2032.

In southern Siberia bordering Mongolia, the Elegest project – intended to produce 8 Mtpa of met coal – was shelved in 2021 during construction. However, plans for the Elegest–Kyzyl–Kuragrino railway line, which would connect Russia, Mongolia and China, are still under consideration by local authorities. In the Russian Far East, the Elga Expansion 2 was approved in 2025 and is set to add capacity of 25 Mtpa. As part of the proposals, the Pacific Railway has been built to link the mine to the Port Elga Coal Terminal on the Sea of Okhotsk. The railway was completed in November 2024 and has continued to ramp up coal transport from the Elginsky deposit throughout 2025. The project was officially inaugurated in September 2025. This railway is now the longest privately owned railway in Russia, spanning 531 km and capable of transporting up to 50 Mtpa if a track doubling project proceeds.

In the Khabarovsk region of eastern Russia, additional railway chords for the northern and southern sections of the Pravoberezhny coal mine are being developed to deliver thermal coal directly to Urgal and Chegdomyn railway stations. In the north, the development of the Taymyr Industrial Cluster has led to the construction of the Yenisei Seaport Coal Terminal and two deepwater ports, Chaika and Severny, with a capacity of 5 Mtpa and 20 Mtpa respectively. Further projects include a three-stage plan to restore and extend sections of the Skovorodino–Reynovo railway, creating a new line on the Gorely–Skovorodino section, and the construction of an international bridge to China across the Amur River to support traffic following the reopening of the Dzhalinda–Mohe land crossing.

Due to limited transparency, there is no public confirmation that any ongoing coal mining projects have been completed in 2025. However, several projects have transitioned from less-advanced to more-advanced status: Pravoberezhny Stage 2, Tikhova 2 Expansion and the Taymyr Sryradasaysky coal mine. The plan to expand the Pravoberezhny coal mine to produce up to 13 Mtpa by 2029 was confirmed in August 2024. Similarly, MMK-Ugol has already begun construction to expand Tikhova to 3 Mtpa in 2024. The Sryradasaysky coal mine is part of the Taymyr Industrial Cluster and has started production during construction, shipping 0.5 Mtpa to China in 2023. AEON Corporation continues to extend the mine’s resources and export capacity by developing supporting infrastructure to ramp up production to the intended 7 Mtpa by 2026.

South Africa leads the project pipeline on the African continent with 12 ongoing projects totalling 31 Mtpa of combined capacity. Among these, advanced projects are primarily focused on met coal, while less-advanced projects are concentrated on thermal coal. Two projects came online between late 2024 and early 2025: the Elders coal mine extension and the Ikoti coal mine. The Elders coal mine extension, an underground mine in Mpumalanga owned by a subsidiary of Thungela Resources, began thermal coal production in Q4 2024 and is expected to ramp up to 3 Mtpa in 2025. The Ikoti coal mine produced its first thermal coal from its underground section on 6 December 2024.

Several projects have transitioned from less-advanced to more-advanced stages, including Gila (Koppie) coal mine, Kusipongo (Udomo) mine, Makhado Phase 2, and Ukwenama coal mine. Kusipongo and Gila have received permits and are expected to begin construction soon, with operations starting in mid-2026 and 2027, respectively. MC Mining has announced significant progress on the second phase of the Makhado mine and expects operations to commence in 2026.

The Khwezela South extension owned by Thungela Resources will not proceed according to their end-of-year annual report in 2024. The Gugulethu coal mine that became operational last year has commenced phase 2 of its construction, which is the development of its underground operations. The Zibulo extension is a new more-advanced mine that is going to extend Thungela’s underground operations until 2038, producing up to 5 Mtpa. Other projects on the horizon may be the restart of Tim Tebeila’s coal mining operation in the Waterberg coalfield in Limpopo, with an estimated 30 billion tonnes of coal reserves, announced on 26 May 2025.

The deep water port – jointly announced last year by Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Botswana for a location at Techobanine Point in Mozambique – has been undergoing profitability studies since Q3 2025. If constructed, the port would help reduce congestion at Durban and Richards Bay ports. Early feasibility reports indicate that, to remain viable, the port would need to handle 20 Mtpa of coal, a volume that the three countries combined currently cannot supply. The corresponding Mmambula–Lephalale Railway would connect Botswana’s Mmambula coalfields with South Africa’s Lephalale region. In March 2025, Botswana Railways organised the Mmambula–Lephalale Rail Link Investor Forum to attract investment for the project. Meanwhile, expansion of the Matola coal terminal and the Macuse port and rail projects is underway. Lastly, since the Steel Authority of India’s announcement in September 2024 to expand the Benga coking coal mine in Mozambique, there have been no updates or reports on the progress of this expansion.

It is difficult to fully assess the number and capacity of new mining projects in Indonesia, as many are not identified until they begin operations. A rough estimate indicates that the current number of projects stands at 14, with a total capacity of 62 Mtpa, which is significantly higher than in last year’s report. However, these figures should be interpreted with caution due to still relatively weak transparency.

PT Maruwai coal expansion by Adaro Minerals has recently been approved for a feasibility study around the Lampunut deposit in Central Kalamantan to increase production. PT Indo Bara Pratama has also begun hiring staff for the Indo Bara Pratama mine in East Kalamantan, indicating that it has obtained the permits applied for in 2022. Other projects identified at the more advanced stage include the Kaltim Mineral coal mine and stage 2 of the SDE coal mine. Kaltim Mineral, owned by Resource Alam Indonesia, is reported to be in the construction phase since acquiring its mining permit in 2013. Stage 1 of the SDE coal mine, owned by Qinfa Mining Industri and Widyanusa Mandiri, was completed in 2024 and is now producing 6 Mtpa. The second stage, which involves the underground segment, is underway and will increase the mine’s capacity to 15 Mtpa by 2026. Finally, Geo Energy revealed plans to raise the production capacity of the Triaryani coal mine to 25 Mtpa over the coming years.

Infrastructure development continues to support specific mining projects. The Pari coal mine is complemented by the construction of a hauling road and a coal loading port on the Mahakam River. The MBJ Integrated Infrastructure Project, consisting of a 95 km hauling road and a river jetty, is also progressing. In 2025, Geo Energy signed two lease contracts with TRV and Astaka coal mining companies to use the MBJ haul road. The MBJ project is designed to support the growth plans of the Triaryani mine, and Geo Energy has secured additional investment from ResInvest ranging between USD 50 million and USD 100 million. PT Bukit Asam is accelerating the construction of train loading stations and coal handling facilities 6 and 7 in Tanjung Enim, South Sumatra, with completion targeted for Q2 2026. Meanwhile, Bayan Resources is building floating transshipment facilities, with two expected to become operational by the end of 2025.

In the North American region most projects are focused on met coal production. The total number of mines in the project pipeline has risen to 15 with an aggregate capacity of 34 Mtpa.

Various projects have made progress in Canada during 2025. In Alberta the moratorium on coal exploration was removed in the Grand Cache and has allowed projects like the Blackstone project to come back into contention. Valory Resources considers it of high priority to develop this mine, which is currently in the exploration phase. Valory also acquired Summit Mine 14 from Summit Coal in April 2025, and swiftly resubmitted applications for mining licences and permits, which await approval. Grassy Mountain was granted environmental approval by the Alberta Energy Regulator in May 2025. HD Mining’s Murray River mine project is substantially under development and plans to be operational by 2029. The Tenas coking coal project in British Columbia was recently fully acquired by Bathurst Resources. Anglo American has pulled many of its projects, including Roman Mountain in British Columbia, to focus its portfolio solely on its remaining Australian assets. Lastly, the Quintette mine, owned by Conuma Resources and with a capacity of 1 Mtpa, came online in September 2024.

The support of the US Administration is among the drivers of new investment. US producer Ramaco Resources has recently purchased the Maben Coal property in West Virginia. Ramaco has already started one new surface mine on this property, Maben Highwall Mine No. 3, and is also permitting and designing additional deep mines at this complex: the Beckley Crystal Mine, Slick Rock Sewell Mine, Allen Creek No. 1 Mine and the Maben No. 1 Mine. Once fully developed, the Maben Coal property could produce as much as 2 Mtpa of met coal from this complex. Alliance Resources’ River View Complex in Kentucky is a met mine that started operations at the end of 2024, acting as an extension of the Henderson Mine. In the second quarter of 2025, Warrior Met Coal commenced sales from its Blue Creek project in Alabama, which is designed to reach production capacity of 4 Mtpa and is the only greenfield mine adding capacity.

In Mongolia the project pipeline has grown to 16 Mtpa with a total of three projects. Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi, a subsidiary of Erdenes Mongol, came under fire in 2024 due to claims of embezzlement and was under investigation throughout 2024. A change of management resulted in bringing two coalfields online. Three remaining mines are in development phases and plan to be operational in 2026, producing up to 10 Mtpa.

In Poland a dispute between GreenX Metals and the Polish government over its two blocked projects, Jan Karski and Debiensko, was finally settled in October 2024, with the court providing a concession for Jan Karski and ruling against GreenX with respect to Debiensko. It is unclear whether GreenX will continue with the Jan Karski project, but the Polish coal producers JSW and Silesian Coal have separately applied for exploration permits for the Debiensko site. The Polish government recently approved an investment in the construction of underground infrastructure to transport coal from the mining sites to the Jaworzno power plant.

Lastly, the Escarpment Project in New Zealand has been brought out of care and maintenance and an application to expand the mine has been lodged under the country’s new fast-track approval process.

Coal remains the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel and the largest contributor to anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. In 2024, coal combustion was responsible for approximately 15.8 Gt of CO₂, accounting for over 40% of energy-related emissions, including those from industrial processes. Of this, around 11.3 Gt originated from coal-fired power generation, which consumes roughly two-thirds of global coal production.

Beyond CO₂, coal combustion emits a range of pollutants, including particulates, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, contributing to local air pollution. While most emissions occur during combustion, coal mining also releases CO₂ and methane directly. The latter is a potent greenhouse gas on its own, with significantly higher warming potential than CO₂. Methane emissions from coal seams, unless captured or flared, are released directly into the atmosphere. Capturing methane prevents the release of this potent greenhouse gas and allows additional revenues if the gas can be sold or used. Flaring converts methane to CO₂, reducing its climate impact by an order of magnitude in CO₂-equivalent terms.

In most cases, the carbon in coal is released as CO₂ when burned, except for small amounts retained in products (e.g. coal-based plastics) or lost through incomplete combustion. To estimate emissions, the key factor is carbon content: assuming complete combustion and excluding feedstock use, one tonne of coal emits its carbon content multiplied by 3.7 as CO₂.

Relating coal’s energy content to CO₂ emissions is more complex due to coal’s heterogeneity. The IPCC provides default average emission factors: 95 kg CO₂/GJ for bituminous coal and 101 kg CO₂/GJ for lignite.

Another metric is the CO₂ intensity of electricity generated from coal, which depends on both the fuel’s emissions factor and the plant’s efficiency. For instance, a plant operating at 43% efficiency using bituminous coal emits approximately 795 kg CO₂/MWh, while a 35% efficient lignite plant emits around 1 039 kg CO₂/MWh. Co-firing with low-carbon fuels such as biomass or ammonia can reduce overall emissions per MWh, although in IEA accounting, biomass and ammonia produce no CO₂ emissions and the remaining emissions are allocated to coal.

Carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) offers a pathway to reduce emissions from coal use. However, current deployment remains limited. Overall, global CO₂ capture capacity across all sectors and fuels is around 50 Mt CO₂/year, with two-thirds of this capacity located at natural gas processing facilities. As of October 2025, global operational CO₂ capture capacity at coal-using facilities stands at approximately 10 Mtpa. representing just 0.06% of total coal-related emissions. In effect, nearly all coal consumed globally remains unabated. Around half of this capacity is linked to power and heat generation, while roughly 40% is associated with coal gasification plants used for fuel production.

North America continues to lead in total installed capture capacity, accounting for more than half of the global total. The region hosts three of the four largest operating projects: in United States, the Great Plains synfuel project, with a capacity of 3 Mt CO₂ per year, and the Petra Nova coal power project, which resumed operations in 2023 and captures 1.4 Mt CO₂ annually; and in Canada, the Boundary Dam coal power project capturing 1 Mt CO₂ per year.

China ranks second in total installed capacity, but currently leads in new installations. Between 2024 and 2025, China increased its installed capture capacity by nearly 50%, highlighted by the commissioning of the Huaneng Longdong Energy Base project in September 2025. This facility, with a capture capacity of 1.5 Mt CO₂ per year, is now the world’s largest carbon capture project at a coal-fired power plant. Most operational commercial-scale capture projects (> 100 000 t CO₂/year) are located in China, with a combined target capacity of 2.35 Mt CO₂/year.

Looking ahead, announced projects may add 51 Mtpa of CO₂ captured from coal-based plants by 2030. Most projects are in the United States (32 Mtpa) and China (17 Mtpa), with power generation as the main use case (38 Mtpa). However, the majority of this capacity remains at an early stage of development, with only China constructing around 1.4 Mt currently.

Despite this, CCUS is expected to play a critical role in the energy transition, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors such as iron and steel and cement. Without significant CCUS deployment, coal’s role in a low-carbon future will be severely constrained.