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World Energy Outlook 2025 Executive summary
…solutions. Others focus more on ensuring ample supplies of traditional fuels.There are fractures in the international system and uncertainties over the outlook for trade, but energy trade is more important than ever. Abundant supplies of oil, solar panels, batteries and, before long, liquefied natural gas (LNG) create strong incentives for producers to seek out international markets.There is less momentum than before behind national and international efforts to reduce emissions, yet climate risks are rising. 2024 was the hottest year on record and the first in which global temperatures exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) above pre-industrial levels…
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World Energy Outlook 2025 Setting the scene
…of energy increased in 2024 to meet the world’s rising energy needs. Electricity use expanded rapidly across a range of sectors. Deployment of renewable power generation again broke records in 2024, meeting more than 70% of the increase in electricity demand. Consumption of each of the fossil fuels rose. Global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reached another all-time high. The energy sector faces many uncertainties. The global economy is projected to grow at an average rate of 3% in the 2024-2030 period, but changes in the global policy environment and trade outlook could lead to different…
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Global Energy and Climate Model Understanding GEC Model scenarios
Overview The IEA’s medium- to long-term outlook publications – including the World Energy Outlook (WEO) and Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) – use a scenario approach relying on the Global Energy and Climate (GEC) Model to examine future energy trends.Each scenario has the same starting point and is based on the latest data for energy supply and demand, markets, technology costs and policies, as well as the same pathways for future population and economic growth.The energy system described and explored in each scenario evolves in a distinctive pathway that delivers energy services with a different mix of technologies and…
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World Energy Outlook 2022 Outlook for energy demand
…stronger push for renewables in the power sector and faster electrification of industrial processes, vehicles and heating. As many of the solutions to the current crisis coincide with those needed to meet global climate goals, the crisis may end up being seen in retrospect as marking a critical turning point in the drive for both energy security and emissions reductions. Key findings A gloomy economic outlook leads to lower projections of energy demand growth in this Outlook than in last year’s edition. High energy prices, heightened energy security concerns and strengthened climate policies are putting an end to a…
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Global Energy and Climate Model About the Global Energy and Climate Model
…function – was developed. A decade later, the Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) model – a technology-rich bottom-up model – was developed for use in parallel to the WEM.Over the past four years, the IEA has worked to develop a new integrated modelling framework: the IEA’s Global Energy and Climate (GEC) Model. This model is now the principal tool used to generate detailed sector-by-sector and region-by-region long-term scenarios across IEA's publications.The GEC Model brings together the unique modelling capabilities of the WEM and ETP models. The result is a large-scale, bottom-up…
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Global Energy and Climate Model Macro drivers
…a country and regional level are based on the IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2025), with global GDP projected to grow by 3% annually over this period. After 2030, GDP growth assumptions are based on Oxford Economics forecasts and the application of the Solow growth model. The Solow model estimates future GDP on a country and regional basis by accounting for labour supply, capital stock, and total factor productivity (TFP). TFP growth reflects catch-up dynamics in lower income countries and convergence towards advanced economy levels. In GEC Model 2025 scenarios, the global economy is assumed to grow by 2.6%..…
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Global Energy and Climate Model Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)
…to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. In the WEO-2024, the APS includes all recent major national announcements as of the end of August 2024, both 2030 targets and longer-term net zero or carbon neutrality pledges, regardless of whether these announcements have been anchored in legislation or in updated Nationally Determined Contributions. In the APS, countries implement their national targets in full and on time. The outlook for exporters of fossil fuels and low-emissions fuels, such as hydrogen, is shaped by what full implementation of all targets means for global demand. The APS also assumes that all country…
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Breakthrough Agenda Report 2025 Power
…in 2024 – a step up from 2023, when they accounted for two-thirds of total growth.Global renewable power capacity is expected to reach 2.6 times its 2022 level by 2030, falling short of the COP 28 pledge of tripling renewable energy capacity. Success statements The rapid deployment of clean power generation continues and expands considerably in all regions of the world Why is it important to achieve the success statement to reach the sectoral breakthrough goal?Electricity generation continues to have the highest emissions in the energy sector, with around 13.9 Gt CO2 emitted in 2024.Renewables…
- Executive summary
- Power
- Hydrogen
- Road transport
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Global EV Outlook 2026 Executive summary
…though the end of EV tax credits coincided with a drop in sales at the end of the year. Meanwhile, some emerging markets saw steep increases in electric car sales. In Southeast Asia, annual sales more than doubled to reach a sales share of nearly 20%, led by Viet Nam, Indonesia and Thailand. In Latin America, sales grew by 75%, led by Brazil and Mexico. More than 100 countries recorded electric car sales growth in 2025, and in one-third of these, they represented at least 10% of new car sales. Chinese automakers supplied 60% of global electric car sales…
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World Energy Outlook 2022 Outlook for electricity
…4% of oil, 52% of all renewables and nearly 100% of nuclear power. It also accounted for over one-third of all energy-related CO2 emissions in 2021. Key findings Global electricity demand rises by 5 900 terawatt-hours (TWh) in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and over 7 000 TWh in the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) by 2030, equivalent to adding the current level of demand in the United States and the European Union. In advanced economies, transport is the largest contributor to increased electricity demand as the market share of electric cars rises from about 8% in 2021…