National Climate Resilience Assessment for Mozambique

Climate and geography

Situated in the southeast of the African continent, Mozambique experiences a mostly tropical to sub-tropical climate, with two distinct seasons: cool and dry weather between May and September and hot and humid weather between October and April. Mozambique has a significant elevation difference from the mountainous west to extensive coastal lowlands in the east. Central and northern parts of the country are dominated by the Zambezi river, the largest of the country’s 25 rivers. Mozambique’s coastline stretches 2 700 km along the Indian Ocean. Nearly half of the country’s population of 32 million inhabit the two coastal, northern provinces Zambezia and Nampula and the country’s biggest cities and ports, including the capital Maputo and Beira, that border the sea. Mozambique’s poverty rate is amongst the highest in the world, nearly 75% in 2020, with most of the country’s poor living in rural areas in the north.

Energy sector

Mozambique is an energy exporter. Almost all coal and well over half of produced natural gas and electricity were exported in 2022. The country was the second largest coal producer in Africa in 2024. Railways to harbours and neighbouring countries are the primary infrastructure for bulk coal transport. Driven by high prices, Mozambique doubled its coal exports in 2022 and coal export revenues accounted for about 13% of its GDP in 2023. The Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL) announced in 2024 plans to more than double the capacity of its Benga coal mines in Tete, investing up to USD 200 million until 2028. Mozambique’s gas resources are among the largest in Africa. Since the mid-2000s, Mozambique has extracted natural gas in the Pande and Temane fields of which about 80% is exported via pipeline to South Africa. To boost energy exports, the government approved three LNG projects, all of which lie in the Rovuma Basin, offshore of the northern province of Cabo Delgado. The first project, the Coral South FLNG (Floating LNG), started operation in November 2022, strongly increasing domestic production. According to government projections, annual state income from gas exports could reach up to USD 95.7 billion if all three major LNG projects are developed. However, revenues are likely to remain below USD 1 billion until project developers recover investments and begin paying corporate income taxes in the 2030s.

Mozambique generated 83% of its electricity using hydropower in 2022, largely relying on the 2.1 GW Cahora Bassa Dam on the Zambezi river. An additional dam in Tete is planned to be operational in 2031. Natural gas from domestic fields accounts for 15% of electricity generation. Mozambique plans to expand the capacity of renewable electricity sources. Under its new Energy Transition Strategy, the country envisages the deployment of 1 GW of new solar PV and up to 0.5 GW onshore wind capacity by 2030. Despite abundant energy resources, Mozambique faces significant challenges in reliably providing electricity – only about 40% of the population has access. Power outages result from a combination of worn-out transmission infrastructure, rising consumer demand and exposure to severe weather events. The country’s Energy Transition Strategy calls for connecting the two currently isolated transmission systems in the central north and south and reinforcing them to support a 15-25% share of variable renewables by 2030.

Temperature

In the last two decades, Mozambique has experienced a lower surface temperature rise than the global average. In the future, Mozambique is projected to continue this trend in a scenario where the increase of global temperature rise is kept below 2 °C (Below 2 °C). In the Above 3 °C scenario, in which global warming exceeds 3 °C from pre-industrial levels, Mozambique could experience, on average, 1.2 °C higher temperatures than the global average.1

While Mozambique's warming remained below a global average of 0.37 °C per decade over the period of 2000 to 2023, it has accelerated reaching a rate of 0.28 °C per decade over this period. Mean land surface temperature over the 2019-2023 period reached 24.4 °C, which was 0.6 °C above the level of the 2000-2004 period.

As a result of warming, cooling degree days (CDDs) in Mozambique increased at a rate of 17 CDDs per year over the 2000-2024 period. In 2024, Mozambique experienced 1 401 CDDs, 40% more than in 2000. Over the same period, the number of heating degree days (HDDs) stayed low given the country’s tropical climate, with a slight decrease of 0.6 HDDs per decade. The increase in temperatures in Mozambique can lead to an increase of cooling demand for industries and buildings.

Climate projections indicate that Mozambique's land surface temperatures are likely to keep rising. In the Below 2 °C scenario, the land surface temperature would warm by 1.96 °C by the end of the century compared to the pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). In the Above 3 °C scenario, the land surface temperature is projected to experience 4.2 °C of warming by the end of the century. In this scenario, all the country's provinces would warm by at least 3.8 °C and six provinces (Niassa, Tete, Manica, Gaza, Zambezia and Sofala) would exceed 4.2 °C of warming. 

Rising temperatures in Mozambique could increase the risk of heatwaves. In the Below 2 °C scenario, the country would experience 24 additional days with a maximum temperature above 35 °C by the end of the century, more than doubling the average number of days in the pre-industrial period. In the Above 3 °C scenario, the country is expected to experience 65 additional days over 35 °C by the end of the century. In the same scenario, Mozambique could experience 23 additional days of extremely hot weather, with maximum temperatures exceeding 40 °C, a large jump from 4 days in the pre-industrial period. The inland provinces of Tete, Manica and Gaza are likely to face the greatest risk of heatwaves. 

High temperatures reduce the transmission capacity of electricity grids. Standard transmission lines and equipment are constructed for a maximum current-carrying capacity around 25 °C and require derating when ambient air temperature strongly exceeds these levels. In addition, persistent high temperatures increase the risk of short circuits due to insulation degradation or powerline sagging. If climate change (as in the Above 3 °C scenario) is not mitigated, over 80% of the existing electricity network is projected to experience 60 or more additional days above 35 °C maximum temperature.

Natural gas combustion and to a lesser extent combined-cycle power plants accounted for over 15% of Mozambique’s electricity generation in 2022. These show decreased performance under high ambient temperatures. The mass of air passing through turbines is a key factor influencing performance, and hotter temperatures decrease the mass per the same volume of air. Although the impact is likely to be limited under a low-emissions scenario (Below 2 °C), under a high-emissions scenario (Above 3 °C) over 40% of current natural gas power plant capacity is projected to experience an additional 40 hot days (of maximum temperature above 35 °C) or above by 2100 compared to 1850-1900.

High temperatures can also reduce the output of solar power generation. With panel temperature exceeding 25 °C, efficiency typically declines by 0.3-0.5%, depending on plant types and materials used. Heat can also have adverse effects on the life span of battery cells and other electronic components which accompany solar panels. While solar PV represents less than 3% of Mozambique’s generation capacity, the country plans to deploy 1 000 MW of new solar PV by 2030 and 7 500 MW by 2050.

When planning for new capacity, Mozambique needs to consider the expected decreases in output from gas power plants and solar power due to higher temperatures. The country must also factor in the necessary support capacity to integrate solar output.

Precipitation

Mozambique is highly vulnerable to floods due to its geographical location downstream of nine major river basins. Between 1960 and 2005, seasonal variability in precipitation substantially increased, exacerbating both droughts and flood events. The country experienced 12 droughts and 20 flood events between 1980 and 2019. Average annual precipitation decreased 3.1% per decade in Mozambique from 1960 to 2006. Due to the decreasing mean precipitation, the probability of having one dry day following another increased in March-May and September-November over the 1960-2005 period in the north of the country. This prolonged dry season, with its concomitant delay in the beginning of the rainy season, was particularly evident in the northern region. In some locations, the start of the rainy season was delayed by an average of 10 days per decade. At the same time, the intensity of heavy rainfalls rose by 2.6% per decade over the 1960-2005 period.

In both the Below 2 °C and Above 3 °C scenarios, seasonal variability in precipitation is projected to increase by the end of the century, further exacerbating the risks of both floods and droughts. Projections indicate a reduction of precipitation during the dry season, between June and November, and an increase in precipitation for the rainy season from December to February. Climate change is likely to bring more frequent floods to Mozambique. In the Below 2 °C scenario, maximum one-day precipitation is expected to increase by 9.9% by the end of the century relative to the pre-industrial level. In the Above 3 °C scenario, this increase would reach 19.1% by the end of the century, with marked regional variations at the provincial level, with a change ranging between 14% and 26.9%. The inland provinces of Niassa and Tete would be more affected, with increases of 26.3% and 23.9%, respectively.

The changes in precipitation patterns are projected to cause more frequent and severe droughts in Mozambique. The number of consecutive dry days is likely to increase in both the Below 2 °C and Above 3 °C scenarios by respectively, 4.5 and 13.2 days. At a provincial level, Niassa is likely to experience the largest increase in the number of consecutive dry days by 2100 compared with the pre-industrial period (1850-1900): 9.6 days in the Below 2 °C scenario, and 21.4 days in the Above 3 °C scenario.

As Mozambique generates more than 80% of its electricity from hydropower relying on the Cahora Bassa reservoir, the increasing seasonal variability in precipitation can pose a risk to the country’s electricity security. Traditional hydropower plants generate their maximum amount of electricity when the streamflow remains stable throughout the year close to the designed capacity. A prolonged drought drastically dropped the water level at the Cahora Bassa dam to 19% of its storage capacity in January 2025, the lowest level in 30 years, reducing the plant’s generation output; upstream rainfalls were however expected to ease the situation.

If no additional resilience measures are implemented in time, IEA models project that Mozambique’s hydropower capacity factor may decline by around 14% by the end of the century in the Above 3 °C scenario. Even under the Below 2 °C scenario, Mozambique’s hydropower capacity factor may decline by 9%. The projected decline in hydropower generation could have a critical impact on the electricity system in Mozambique given the important role of hydropower in providing reliable electricity, facilitating integration of other renewable sources and expanding electricity access.

Heavy precipitation and floods have also contributed to the damage to Mozambique’s electricity networks in the past, leading to widespread outages. In February 2023, heavy rainfall caused flooding Maputo city and province, leaving 18 000 people without electricity. In March 2024, floods in the same region led to an electricity grid outage, affecting 15 000 people. Given that climate models indicate that intense rainfalls are likely to increase in Mozambique, planning future electrical lines to avoid floodplains, increasing the reinforcement of pylon foundations, and building a more networked grid and increased redundancy are key measures. According to climate projections, almost half of the installed electricity grid would be exposed to an increase of over 10% in one-day maximum precipitation by the end of the century in a low-emissions scenario (Below 2 °C), while nearly 60% of the electricity grid would see a 20% increase in a high-emissions scenario (Above 3 °C).

Mozambique’s coal production is likely to be exposed to increasing heavy rainfall and in the Above 3°C scenario, would witness an increase in maximum one-day precipitation of more than 10% by mid-century. Floods and excessive precipitation can affect or even suspend mining activities by increasing the risk of mine inundation and waterlogging. In addition, floods can hamper coal transport via rail or road and decrease coal quality with wet coal. In 2018, heavy rains affected the coal production capacity of Vale’s two mines in Mozambique, leading to a downward revision of annual coal production forecasts by 1 million tons (6.2%). 

Tropical cyclones and storms

Mozambique’s long coastline is prone to tropical cyclones, making landfall during the rainy season between October and March about once per year. Since 2019 alone, Mozambique has been affected by 13 tropical cyclones, causing widespread damage. Research estimates that climate change will further increase the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in Mozambique.

Mozambique is giving significant attention to the impacts of tropical cyclones on their energy sector, including such cyclones as key extreme weather concerns in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Mozambique’s Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

New offshore hydrocarbon projects off Mozambique's northern coast invest in cyclone-resilient technology. For instance, the Coral South FLNG project installed a permanently moored vessel with a large-diameter internal turret designed to withstand a once in a 100-year storm. In contrast, Mozambique’s electricity networks are particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones. In recent years, the country’s state-owned energy company, Electricidade de Moçambique (EDM), incurred substantial revenue losses and infrastructure damage while hundreds of thousands of customers face power outages each year.

Sea level rise

Mozambique's 2 700 km long coastline may be subject to sea level rise, floods and tropical cyclones, exposing more than 60% of the country's population living in coastal areas. Some of the country's biggest cities, such as Maputo, Beira and Quelimane, are located on the coast and are particularly vulnerable. Under the Below 2 °C scenario, sea level rise could reach 0.21 m in Mozambique by 2050 compared to 1995-2014 levels and 0.24 m in the Above 3 °C scenario. In 2100, these levels could reach 0.48 m and 0.72 m respectively. The projected sea level rise could intensify the impact of storm surges on coastal regions, raising the probability of flooding in low-lying areas. In 2019, cyclone Idai’s winds caused a storm surge of up to 6 metres into low-lying residential and agricultural areas, contributing to the flooding of the coastal city of Beira. Some studies show that the damage caused by tropical cyclone Idai was intensified partly due to climate change including sea level rise. 

Mozambique released its first National Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy (NCCAMS) in 2012, covering the period of 2013-2025. The NCCAMS is a high-level strategic document that lays out an agenda for key adaptation and mitigation focus areas. The strategy presents eight strategic areas for intervention,2 including infrastructure, with electricity networks being included as a priority focus together with roads, bridges, viaducts, conduits, water supply and treatment. The NCCAMS calls for: updates to approaches on land-use planning; mapping vulnerable and at-risk infrastructure; and preparing for increased natural hazards due to climate change, including cyclones, floods and sea level rise.

Building upon the NCCAMS, the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) was published in 2023 and aims to integrate climate change adaptation into planning processes at all levels of the public sector. To increase the climate resilience of public infrastructures, the NAP proposes mapping disaster-prone infrastructure, designing schemes for effective management of public infrastructures and providing sufficient finance to cover increased construction costs for resiliency improvements as well as the rehabilitation of public infrastructures.

The NAP also flagged an increase in distributed renewable energy, such as minigrids, as a key measure to extend energy access in rural areas and to ensure reliable supply when central energy systems are disrupted by extreme weather events. To improve access to renewable energy, the NAP focuses on implementing the Electricidade de Moçambique (EDM) Strategy 2018-2028 which supports developing the energy mix and system infrastructure. The NAP estimates the cost of improving access to renewable energy at USD 1.5 billion.

Other climate policies also assess the energy sector’s climate resilience. For instance, the Second National Communication to UNFCCC (NC2) published in 2022, identifies main constraints for the energy sector’s adaptation and resilience. The NC2 points out that electricity infrastructure (transmission, towers, poles) is usually installed without considering risks of extreme weather events and a changing climate. To address the issue, the NC2 calls for training and capacity development programmes. For the energy sector specifically, the NC2 suggests that the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy (MIREME) and Ministry of Land and Environment (MTA) work on the development of climate resilience capacity-building programmes and projects in the energy sector.

Similarly, the updated NDC for the period of 2020-2025 mentions the reformulation of codes for the construction of infrastructure, including energy distribution networks to enhance its resiliency. Besides climate and energy policies, Mozambique has addressed a broad concept of climate resilience through the Disaster Risk Reduction Master Plan (PDRRD) 2017-2030, which proposes integrating disaster risk management into all public investments and territorial planning at all levels of government. Additionally, the PDRRD calls for financial protection mechanisms, such as risk transfer instruments, sovereign insurance and the establishment of a Disaster Management Fund. Accordingly, the government approved the creation of the Disaster Management Fund (DMF) in 2017 to finance post-disaster preparedness, response, recovery and reconstruction activities. It entered into operation in 2019. In addition, in 2022, the government adopted the Financial Protection Plan against Disasters (PPFD) 2022-2027 to strengthen the financial response capacity against such events.

These policies provide a broad overview of adaptation and resilience, but more detailed guidelines for how to improve energy sector resilience have yet to be drafted. Developing a comprehensive adaptation plan for the energy sector can help identify key measures to mitigate risks and propose a portfolio of measures that improve resilience while balancing associated incremental costs.

Hydropower poses a particularly crucial risk that would benefit from immediate steps to update operational, monitoring and planning processes. For instance, requesting funding for better river flow monitoring and predictive weather systems could help Mozambique better evaluate changes in water availability and better manage dam operation in coordination with irrigation, inland waterway navigation needs, flood management, and water and environmental quality.

Mozambique can also update emergency response protocols. For instance, the Early Action Protocol (EAP) for cyclones, which was created through a collaboration with the National Institute of Disaster Management, National Meteorological Institute and National Directorate of Water Resources and Management, has helped mitigate damage and enhanced the preparedness of communities to withstand cyclones since it was first activated for tropical storm Chalane in 2020. Implementing capacity-building programmes and fostering exchanges with other national and regional meteorological institutions, disaster relief administrations, and energy regulators and designers of emergency protocols could be a starting point for collaborative actions of diverse stakeholders to enhance their understanding of climate impacts and resilience.