Existing pledges would cut fossil-fuel methane emissions by 40% by 2030, but only half are backed by detailed policies and regulations

Methane pledges cover 80% of global fossil fuel production, with the largest initiative being the Global Methane Pledge (GMP). Countries that participate in the GMP commit to work together to collectively reduce global methane emissions from human activity (across all sources, not limited to energy) by at least 30% below 2020 levels by 2030. Cutting the world’s methane emissions by 30% over the next decade would have the same impact on global warming by mid-century as immediately shifting the global transport sector to net zero CO2 emissions.

In 2024, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Guatemala and Madagascar joined the GMP, bringing the total number of participating countries to 159 (plus the European Union). The GMP now covers more than 50% of global methane emissions from human activity. Yet while membership in the GMP continues to grow, most signatories have yet to take concrete action. 

Methane emissions reductions in the fossil fuel industry from current policies, plans and pledges to 2030

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Existing high-level pledges on methane would suggest a reduction of approximately 55% in oil and gas methane emissions by 2030. However, implementation is still lacking: detailed methane policies and regulations would cut emissions by only around 25% by 2030.

Commitments to cut methane emissions from the coal sector are more limited, with an even larger implementation gap. High-level pledges would lead to a 30% reduction in coal mine methane emissions by 2030, while policies and regulations currently in place would only lower emissions by just under 15% by 2030. 

Recent changes in methane policies and regulations

A number of countries have recently introduced new measures on methane emissions:

  • Canada issued draft regulations to establish a national cap-and-trade system for greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas sector. These regulations are expected to further incentivise Canadian oil and gas operators to cut their methane emissions.  
  • China established a new air pollution standard for coalbed methane, requiring coal mine operators to capture gas that has a methane concentration of 8% or higher and a flow rate of 10 m³/min or more. This gas must be utilised or stored in gas tanks. If the gas cannot be utilised or stored, it must be destroyed.
  • Brazil issued guidelines through its National Energy Policy Council that promote the decarbonisation of oil and gas activities, including minimising flaring and eliminating routine flaring. The guidelines also call for measures to reduce methane leaks from oil and gas operations.
  • Kazakhstan is developing regulations to reduce methane emissions from the fossil fuel sector, including by eliminating non-emergency methane venting, requiring leak detection and repair (LDAR), and establishing a measurement, monitoring, reporting and verification (MMRV) framework.
  • The European Union adopted its Methane Regulation on emissions reduction in the energy sector, which includes mandatory MMRV requirements for emissions at the source level, both for operated assets as well as non-operated assets.

In the United States, a reconsideration of methane rules issued under the previous administration has been announced. Congress has also overturned a rule issued by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that implemented the “Waste Emissions Charge” mandated by the Inflation Reduction Act.  

Nearly 100 countries have completed or are developing national methane action plans. This includes 37 countries that are being supported by the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) through participation in the CCAC’s Methane Roadmap Action Programme.

The IEA has prepared two detailed “how-to” guides for countries looking to develop new methane policies and regulations: one for oil and gas emissions and another for coal mine emissions

Implementing tried-and-tested policies globally would lower oil and gas methane emissions by more than half by 2030

A number of tried-and-tested policies for reducing methane emissions have been successfully applied in various countries and contexts worldwide. These policies include limiting flaring and venting, requiring LDAR programmes, and introducing technology standards. They do not require extensive systems for measuring methane emissions and can serve as an effective first step to methane mitigation.

Were every country to implement these tried-and-tested policies, we estimate that global methane emissions from oil and gas operations would shrink by more than half. If additional policies (such as emissions pricing, financing instruments, and performance standards) were also adopted globally, this would lead to a 75% reduction in methane emissions from oil and gas operations.

Certain countries have already implemented these policies successfully, providing a model for other countries aiming to reduce their methane emissions. For example, Norway banned non-emergency flaring in 1971 and imposed a tax on natural gas venting and flaring in 2015. Thanks to these measures, Norway has driven methane emissions from fossil fuel operations to very low levels – and it now has the lowest emissions intensity of any country. If all countries managed to match Norway’s emissions intensity, global methane emissions from oil and gas operations would fall by more than 90%. Meanwhile, Nigeria and Colombia have also recently enacted regulations that introduce tried-and-tested policies, including restrictions on cold venting and LDAR requirements.

Global oil and gas methane emissions, emissions reduction from tried-and-tested policies, and estimated emissions with Norway’s performance level, 2024

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The ongoing round of Nationally Determined Contributions is an opportunity for countries to strengthen methane commitments

The current round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due in 2025 represents an opportunity for countries to indicate how they will move from pledges to action on methane abatement. In 2024, only about 30 NDCs mentioned specific measures for reducing energy-related methane emissions, while just nine included quantitative targets for these reductions. With the 2025 NDC update, countries have a chance to set specific quantitative targets for methane reduction, including sector-specific targets for energy.

We have identified 65 GMP signatories for whom cutting domestic methane emissions by 30% would represent a greater reduction in greenhouse gas emissions than what is included in their pre-2025 NDCs. Many of these NDCs indicate methane emissions would follow a “business as usual” scenario. Economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions in these 65 countries would rise in aggregate by a little over 10% between 2020 and 2030. However, if these countries achieved a 30% reduction in domestic methane emissions through national policies and regulations, their total greenhouse gas emissions would instead decline by 10% during this period, resulting in the elimination of 1.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide‑‑equivalent (CO2-eq) emissions by 2030. This would be broadly equivalent to eliminating all emissions from international aviation and shipping.

Change in greenhouse gas emissions for selected countries under pre-2025 NDCs and through domestic implementation of the Global Methane Pledge, 2020-2030

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Some countries have already released their updated NDCs for the period up to 2035. New NDCs from Brazil, Canada, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom all include measures for reducing methane emissions from the energy sector. To measure progress on these targets, countries can report on their methane emissions in a consistent and transparent manner as part of their Biennial Transparency Reports.

Action by importing countries can help drive significant methane emissions reductions in exporting countries

Many high-emitting countries have yet to commit to reducing their methane emissions. To date, Algeria, China, India, Iran, Russia, Syria, Thailand and Venezuela have not joined the GMP. Together, these eight countries account for nearly 45% of global energy-related methane emissions. Many of these countries export oil and gas to GMP participants.

Methane emissions from fossil fuel consumption in selected countries and regions, 2024

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Trade and diplomatic action by importing countries has the potential to drive significant reductions in methane emissions in exporting countries. Importing countries have several tools at their disposal to incentivise methane abatement in exporting countries:

  • Trade measures: Importing countries can set performance standards for imported oil and gas products, requiring these products to fall below a specified methane-intensity threshold. For example, starting in 2030, the EU Methane Regulation will require oil, gas and coal placed on the EU market to comply with a specified methane intensity threshold. Another option is to impose import taxes or fees on products with high emissions, for example through a carbon border adjustment mechanism.
  • Economic incentives: Importing countries can commit to purchasing gas that would have otherwise been vented or flared. They can also create preferential marketplaces or related price premiums for fossil fuels with low methane emissions. This can be supported by providing funding that is conditional on the implementation of measures to capture and commercialise methane.
  • Technical and institutional support: Importing countries can support the development and implementation of methane policies, regulations and technologies in exporting countries. For example, the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) has signed arrangements with PETRONAS (Malaysia’s national oil company, or NOC) and Pertamina (Indonesia’s NOC) to advance collaboration on methane emissions measurement and reduction.
  • Measurement, monitoring, reporting and verification (MMRV) standards: Countries can develop common MMRV standards for methane emissions. This would help avoid loopholes and reduce the regulatory burden for companies. In 2023, 12 countries and the European Commission created a Working Group to develop an international framework for measuring, monitoring, reporting and verifying greenhouse gas emissions along international natural gas supply chains. Similarly, in July 2023, Japan and Korea (alongside partners) launched the Coalition for LNG Emission Abatement Toward Net-Zero (CLEAN) initiative, a public-private project under which LNG buyers from Japan and Korea collect information from suppliers on the status of methane reduction efforts.     
  • Diplomatic action: Importing countries can use diplomatic means to encourage exporting countries to abate methane emissions, including through joint work programmes and other forms of collaboration.

Technology is available to detect super-emitting events, but policy responses are lacking

Advances in monitoring technologies – notably satellites – have been key to enabling the detection of large emission events. While satellite technology is not perfect (with readings being more difficult offshore or in mountainous, snowy, icy, overcast and high-latitude regions), current satellites and data processing techniques can detect and measure a range of emissions events – from major leaks over large areas down to small leaks at the facility level. Analysis from Carbon Mapper, which looked at more than 2 000 plumes globally, indicates that these sources are often recurrent. In the oil and gas sector, it is estimated that around one quarter of leaks are recurrent (i.e. a leak was detected on multiple occasions at the same location).

Data from the European Space Agency’s satellite Sentinel-5P, processed by the analytics firm Kayrros, identified 906 super-emitter events at oil and gas facilities across 47 countries in 2024. When accounting for the level of satellite coverage, we estimate that these events led to the release of around 4.6 Mt of methane into the atmosphere. The five countries with the highest number of satellite-detected events in 2024 were Turkmenistan (287 events); the United States (190 events); Russia (154 events); Algeria (39 events); and Iran (38 events). In Russia, the number of observed events almost doubled compared with 2023. The highest single emitting event was detected at a facility in Texas (United States) in October 2024, followed by two events in Turkmenistan.

Preventing and swiftly addressing major leaks or releases is a key opportunity to rapidly reduce methane emissions. In 2022, the UNEP’s International Methane Emissions Observatory (IMEO) launched the Methane Alert and Response System (MARS), which uses satellite data to identify large methane emissions. When a large emitting event is detected and validated, IMEO notifies the relevant country’s government. If the facility in question is determined to belong to a member of UNEP’s Oil and Gas Methane Partnership 2.0, IMEO will also notify the relevant operator. 

Actionable Methane Alert and Response System notifications for the oil and gas sector

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Since its launch, MARS has detected more than 7 000 methane plumes and has issued around 2 000 notifications to governments and operators. But while IMEO has sent multiple notifications, fewer than half have been acknowledged by recipients, and IMEO received an explanation on the event’s source in only 15 cases, a response rate of just 1%.

Addressing and resolving super-emitting events requires action from both governments and operators. Governments and OGMP 2.0 operators can designate a MARS focal point to receive notifications from IMEO. To date, 20 countries have done so. Governments can help by ensuring that focal points are well supported to respond quickly upon notification and have the appropriate legal authority to mitigate the event. Prompt reaction to MARS notifications has delivered methane reductions in Algeria, Argentina, Azerbaijan, Nigeria and the United States.

Governments can also establish emergency response plans for responding to notifications. Emergency response plans may include procedures for determining which operator is involved based on the event’s location, as well as obligations for operators to investigate the event’s source, mitigate the event, and avoid similar events in the future. Plans may also establish mitigation timelines and reporting obligations.  

Emergency response mechanisms can also rely on other sources to identify super-emitting events. For example, the U.S. Super Emitter Program currently requires a facility’s owner or operator to initiate an investigation within five days of receiving a notification from the EPA, based on remote sensing technologies operated by certified third-party entities. The owner or operator must report the results of this investigation to the EPA within 15 days of receiving the notification, including an explanation of the event’s source (if the owner or operator was able to identify it).

Emissions from abandoned facilities can be significant, but are often overlooked in policies and regulations

Abandoned wells and mines can be significant sources of methane emissions. While emissions may diminish after production stops, they do not disappear entirely and can persist at a steady rate for a prolonged period of time. Methane can leak through cracks, fissures and gaps, particularly when a well or mine has not been properly plugged or sealed. Governments can play a critical role in curbing methane emissions from these sources, which often increase in the absence of regulatory safeguards, including by incorporating methane requirements in closure and decommissioning plans.

Tackling methane emissions from abandoned wells and mines requires developing clear mitigation strategies that distinguish between different classes of facilities. One key distinction lies between wells and mines for which an operator is accountable and those for which no operator can be identified – for example because the operator has become insolvent or has ceased to exist (referred to as “orphaned” facilities).

In cases where an identified operator is responsible, governments can require operators to perform closure activities for assets being decommissioned. In the case of oil and gas wells, this can take the form of plugging and well integrity monitoring. For coal mines, mine flooding is an effective way to reduce methane emissions as it stabilises the hydrostatic pressure on the coal seams. In cases where flooding is not safe or technically feasible, mines can be sealed and drainage systems put in place to capture the emerging gas.

To help finance decommissioning activities for abandoned wells and mines, governments can require operators to set aside funds throughout the asset’s life. Governments can also follow Alberta’s model of establishing an annual industry-wide minimum spending requirement, which is then divided between each oil and gas operator.

Regulators can also promote the capture and utilisation of methane from abandoned coal mines. An important element of methane recovery is establishing clear ownership and transfer rights to the resource. In Germany, ownership and transfer procedures for abandoned mines were established in the 1990s and the country is now home to the most active abandoned mine methane industry in Europe. Incentives for capturing abandoned mine methane can take the form of grants or subsidies for project implementation, feed-in tariffs for the electricity produced, or the inclusion of projects in carbon offset crediting schemes. The German Renewable Energy Sources Act provides a guaranteed fixed payback tariff for 20 years through feed-in tariffs or fees paid for electricity produced from approved abandoned mine methane projects.

In the case of orphaned wells and mines, governments can inventory these facilities to identify which ones emit the largest amounts of methane. For example, the United States established a programme to identify and inventory orphaned wells on federal lands, including measuring and tracking their methane emissions. Canada, New York and Western Australia have undertaken similar inventories. Similarly, under the EU Methane Regulation, Member states have until August 2025 to establish inventories of non-producing wells and mines, identify responsible parties, and take mitigation steps where emissions exist.

To reduce methane emissions from orphaned wells and mines, governments can provide public funding for plugging, flooding or sealing. For example, in 2021, the United States allocated USD 4.7 billion for plugging orphaned wells on federal, state, tribal and private lands. Pennsylvania has used this funding to set up its own grant programme, while the Texas Railroad Commission has used it to issue solicitations for contracts under its existing State Managed Plugging Program. Closure projects could also be made eligible for carbon credits, allowing project operators to trade these credits on carbon markets.

To help finance public funding for closure activities, one option is to rely on fees collected from operational assets. Alberta imposes an annual Orphan Well Levy on companies operating oil and gas assets within the province, which is then transferred to the Orphan Well Association to offset closure costs. Western Australia has set up a Mining Rehabilitation Fund for abandoned mines across its territory, which is financed in part through annual levies collected from active mine operators.