Global electricity consumption is expected to increase at the fastest pace in years over the 2025-2027 forecast period of this report, fuelled by growing industrial production, rising use of air conditioning, accelerating electrification, and the expansion of data centres worldwide. Global electricity demand rose by 4.3% in 2024 and is forecast to continue to grow at close to 4% out to 2027. Over the next three years, global electricity consumption is forecast to rise by an unprecedented 3 500 TWh. This corresponds to adding more than the equivalent of a Japan to the world’s electricity consumption each year. This is also a sharp acceleration over the 2.5% increase in 2023, when strong gains in China, India and Southeast Asia were tempered by declines in advanced economies. 

Most of the additional demand for electricity through 2027 will come from emerging economies, which are expected to make up 85% of the growth. More than half of global electricity demand growth in 2024 came from China, where it grew by 7% in 2024, similar to the previous year. Electricity demand in China is forecast to increase on average by 6% annually out to 2027. India, Southeast Asian countries and other emerging markets are also expected to record strong demand growth, supported by economic expansion and rising air conditioner ownership. India’s electricity demand is forecast to grow at an average 6.3% annually over the next three years, stronger than the 2015-2024 average growth rate of 5%. While many emerging economies are seeing robust electricity demand growth, Africa is lagging. Although significant progress has been made in recent years, 600 million people in sub-Saharan Africa still do not have access to reliable electricity. 

Electrification is progressing rapidly in China, where the share of electricity in final energy consumption (28%) is much higher than in the United States (22%) or the European Union (21%). China’s electricity consumption has been growing faster than its economy since 2020, underscoring the speed at which electrification across all sectors is taking hold. In the three-year period 2022-2024, industry accounted for almost 50% of electricity demand growth, with the commercial and residential sectors combined making up another 40%. The industrial sector became more electricity intensive, with one-third of the growth in demand coming from the manufacturing of solar PV modules, batteries and electric vehicles. In 2024, these industrial sectors consumed more than 300 TWh of electricity annually – as much as Italy uses in a year. Over our forecast period, the industrial sector will continue to make up the largest share of China’s demand growth. At the same time, the rising stock of air conditioners, growing electric vehicle charging demand and the expansion of data centres and 5G networks will continue to play a significant role in China’s increasing electricity consumption over the next three years.

Electricity consumption by data centres in China could double out to 2027, though projections indicate a wide range of uncertainties. We estimate that data centres in China consumed over 100 TWh of electricity in 2024. Future projections from Chinese institutions indicate a wide range of possible demand levels from data centres in 2027, highlighting the need for further data collection and analysis on the sector. Compared with other major drivers of electricity demand in China, data centres’ contribution to growth over 2022-2024 was limited, accounting for around 3% of the additional demand. However, their share of growth, based on the projections by Chinese institutions, could increase to 6% over the next three years. 

While the electricity consumption of advanced economies as a whole remained almost unchanged in 2024 compared with 2021, they are expected to account for 15% of global demand growth over the 2025-2027 period. Many advanced economies – such as Australia, Canada, the European Union, Japan, Korea and the United States – are expected to see electricity consumption rise through 2027 following increases in 2024. In advanced economies, electricity demand – both in total and per capita – has stayed relatively flat or even declined since 2009 even as the economies themselves have continued to grow. This dynamic in advanced economies reflected a combination of increased efficiency gains across all end-use sectors, most notably in lighting and appliances, as well as the restructuring and relocation of heavy industries over the past several decades. Now, once again, electricity demand in advanced economies is expected to start rising significantly alongside economic growth, bucking the trend of the past 15 years. This is driven by higher consumption from the deployment of electric vehicles, air conditioners, data centres and heat pumps, among other end-use technologies.

In the United States, the world’s second-largest electricity consumer after China, demand rebounded in 2024, growing by 2% to reach a new high. This followed a 1.8% decline in 2023 due to mild weather and weaker manufacturing activity. We expect US electricity demand to grow at an average annual rate of 2% over the 2025-2027 period, which is equivalent to adding the total electricity demand of California over the next three years. This is an upward revision from our forecast in January 2024, and is largely due to higher consumption from the data centre sector. The other significant contributors to electricity demand growth in our forecast are households, electric vehicles and the industrial sector, notably large new consumers such as semiconductor manufacturers.

Electricity demand in the European Union is recovering from the economic slowdown that has affected the region in recent years, but it is not expected to return to 2021 levels before 2027. EU electricity consumption declined by 3% in 2022 and again in 2023, taking it down to levels last seen two decades ago. The modest growth of 1.4% in 2024 was supported by the residential and commercial sectors, led by increased use of heat pumps and electric vehicles and higher demand from data centres. By contrast, industrial electricity consumption remained relatively flat, having fallen by around 6% in both 2022 and 2023. While primary metals and various chemical sectors saw higher output and increased electricity demand compared with the previous year, the gains were offset by declines in the automotive, machinery and related industries. Electricity prices for energy-intensive industries in the European Union in 2024 were well below the record highs seen in 2022 and slightly lower than in 2023. But they were still, on average, double those in the United States and 50% higher than in China.

Record-high electricity generation from renewables and nuclear is expected to meet all the additional global demand over the next three years. Renewables – such as solar, wind and hydropower – are set to meet about 95% of the electricity demand growth in our forecast period. In 2025, they are forecast to provide more than one-third of total electricity generation globally, overtaking coal. Renewables are expected to more than meet demand growth in advanced economies, reducing fossil fuel-fired generation. In China, rapid expansion of renewables is expected to meet around 90% of new electricity demand, though weather-related events and unexpected electricity consumption changes can affect this trend in individual years. 

The rapid expansion of ever cheaper solar PV is expected to account for roughly half of global electricity demand growth to 2027, up from 40% in 2024. Globally, solar PV generation hit the 2 000 TWh mark in 2024, producing 7% of global electricity generation, up from 5% in 2023. Over the next three years, roughly 600 TWh of additional electricity will be generated from solar each year, equivalent to Korea's annual consumption. Solar PV is thriving globally, setting records in both emerging markets and advanced economies. Electricity generation from solar PV surpassed that from coal in the European Union in 2024, with its share in the generation mix exceeding 10%. China, the United States and India are all set to see solar PV’s share reach 10% over the forecast period as well. The strong growth trend in solar PV is accompanied by continued expansion in wind generation, which is forecast to meet around one-third of additional global electricity demand in 2025-2027.

Nuclear power generation will reach a new high in 2025 and continue to rise steadily over the following two years, setting further records. The strong growth will be fuelled by the recovery in French nuclear power output, restarts in Japan and new reactors entering operation in China, India, Korea and other countries. The growth trend in nuclear generation also reflects a strong comeback for the technology in policy circles, highlighting its importance as a stable backbone in low-emissions energy systems for an increasing number of countries. 

Over the 2025-2027 forecast period, global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from electricity generation are expected to plateau after increasing by 1% in 2024. This is a slight slowdown compared with the rise of 1.4% in 2023, owing to the expanding use of renewables and a levelling off in fossil fuel-fired generation. However, at about 13 800 million tonnes of CO₂ in 2024, emissions from electricity generation remain the highest of any sector. Global coal-fired generation is expected to stagnate over the forecast period, after increasing by 1% in 2024. Declining emissions in the European Union and the United States are mostly offset by increases in India and Southeast Asia in our forecast period. Nevertheless, the strong expansion of low-emissions energy sources in many regions will reduce the share of global coal-fired generation below 33% for the first time this century over the forecast period. Trends in China, where more than half of world’s coal-fired electricity generation takes place, will continue to be the largest source of uncertainty, since weather events or economic fluctuations can considerably affect coal-fired generation in individual years.

Natural gas-fired generation globally is expected to see moderate-but-steady average annual growth of around 1% in 2025-2027, following a 2.6% surge in 2024 and a 1.3% increase in 2023. Declining gas-fired output in Europe and the Americas amid growing generation from clean energy sources is set to be more than offset by strong increases in the Middle East and Asia. In the Middle East, robust electricity demand growth and oil-to-gas switching in the power sector will be major drivers. At the same time, rising electricity consumption in Asia will lead to higher gas-fired generation, which will remain important for power system flexibility needs. Even in regions where we expect gas-fired generation to decline, its role in providing flexibility to the system and acting as backup capacity will be essential for maintaining security of supply.

In the European Union, India, the United Kingdom and the United States, wholesale electricity prices fell by around 20% on average in 2024 compared with the previous year. This was broadly in line with the fall in global energy commodity prices. Nevertheless, prices in these regions – except for the United States and the Nordic region in Europe – are still significantly above their pre-Covid levels.

Though still relatively uncommon in many power markets, some regions have seen increasing occurrences of negative wholesale prices in recent years. These include the Australian regions of Victoria and South Australia, southern California in the United States, and a growing number of European countries. Negative prices broadly signal insufficient flexibility in the system due to technical, regulatory or contractual reasons. Negative prices can, in some cases, serve as an incentive for more flexible supply and demand, as well as the use of storage solutions. However, the price signals alone may not suffice for investing in increased system flexibility. Adequate regulatory frameworks, market designs and tariff structures are also essential for promoting more flexibility in the system.

Several short-lived Dunkelflaute events, when electricity generation from wind and solar PV combined reached very low levels, resulted in extremely high price spikes during several hours in the winter of 2024/2025 in Northern Europe. The price spikes only had a very limited impact on average prices but acted as important signals to incentivise flexible generators to produce more and for flexible consumers to reduce their consumption, as well as facilitating efficient imports and exports of electricity. Such events can act as potential stress tests for the system, and the recent occurrences were managed successfully without any impact on the supply of electricity, highlighting the resilience of the power systems and the underlying short-term market structures. 

Extreme weather events such as storms, droughts and heatwaves led to widespread power disruptions in 2024. The United States saw large-scale power outages in early January due to massive winter storms that affected a wide area ranging across multiple states. Hurricanes were particularly frequent in the Atlantic in 2024, which affected many US states and Caribbean countries during the summer, causing extensive damage and power supply disruptions. Victoria, Australia, was similarly hit by a major outage due to a storm that damaged transmission infrastructure. At the same time, reduced hydropower output due to droughts strained power systems across the world, with Ecuador and Colombia strongly affected by El Niño weather effects. Mexico faced supply tightness during elevated electricity demand periods amid heatwaves and low hydropower generation. Such events highlight the need to increase resiliency against the impacts of extreme weather on power systems.

Having sufficient dispatchable capacity and storage, among other flexibility options such as demand-side response and interconnections, will be essential for enhancing electricity security. As both electricity supply and demand become more weather dependent, temporary periods with reduced weather-dependent supply may put significant strain on the power system. This is especially the case if such events coincide with elevated electricity demand due to extreme weather such as winter storms or intense heatwaves and fuel supply disruptions or outages in power plants. When planning for resource adequacy to reliably meet electricity demand with available supply, taking into consideration the unpredictable nature of weather events is becoming increasingly important.