Guyana has become a dynamic upstream oil market, transforming from a non-producer to an emerging oil exporter within the decade. Since the first discovery of oil in the Stabroek Block in 2015, six large-scale developments have been approved, turning the area into a central pillar of the country’s economic strategy. Production is expected to exceed 1.3 million barrels per day by 2027, making Guyana one of the largest per-capita oil producers globally. The government’s production sharing contract allocates 14.5% of total crude output to the state, with the remainder used to cover costs and remunerate contractors.

The Whiptail project is the sixth development in the Stabroek Block and contains more than 850 million barrels, accounting for roughly 8% of its total recoverable resources. Once production starts in 2027, Whiptail will add up to 250 000 barrels per day of new capacity, expanding output by almost 40% from today’s levels, further consolidating Guyana’s rapidly expanding offshore sector. As with the preceding developments (Liza Phases I–II, Payara, Yellowtail and Uaru), Whiptail is developed under a long‐term partnership between ExxonMobil (45%, operator), Hess (30%) and CNOOC (25%).

For China, this project represents the continuation of a significant upstream presence in the region. With Stabroek resources now estimated above 11 million barrels, CNOOC’s 25% interest gives it exposure to one of the world’s most commercially attractive new oil provinces, with around one-quarter of total resources attributable to the company.

Guyana in 2021 passed the Local Content Act to protect local interests in oil development. The Act requires oil companies, including CNOOC, to use local labour and suppliers in 40 specific categories, such as catering, transportation and manufacturing. In 2024, around 70% of the workforce on the Stabroek oil field project was local.

Whiptails’ total development cost is estimated at USD 12.7 billion, of which CNOOC is responsible for roughly USD 3.18 billion in proportion to its 25% stake. This covers both capital expenditure and operating costs consistent with the production sharing contract. CNOOC’s cumulative investment across all six Stabroek projects has now reached around USD 17.7 billion, making the Guyana basin the company’s largest overseas upstream commitment.

While ExxonMobil retains operatorship, CNOOC participates fully in investment decision-making and bears its proportional share of capital and operating costs. Since the developments in the Stabroek Block are financed directly from the partners’ balance sheets rather than through non-recourse project debt, CNOOC’s exposure moves in line with changes in project costs, oil-price dynamics and future operating performance. This differs from many clean energy projects, where high shares of project-finance debt and fixed offtake arrangements can insulate sponsors from part of the underlying risk.

CNOOC’s continued expansion in Guyana reflects a broader shift in the composition of China’s outbound energy investment. Historically, China’s overseas upstream spending was led by China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) and China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), whose activity peaked around 2013 before declining sharply. Since 2018, however, CNOOC has steadily increased its international commitments, acquiring stakes in major fields in Brazil, Abu Dhabi, Iraq and Uganda, and emerging as China’s largest overseas upstream investor in EMDE since the COVID pandemic.

The company’s strategy emphasises participation in high-quality, low-cost basins operated by international majors, often alongside long-term production sharing agreements. The Stabroek Block epitomises this approach: it offers some of the lowest breakeven costs among new global oil developments, rapid project cycles, and a strong operator track record. CNOOC’s role therefore strengthens China’s access to diversified energy supply while embedding the company in multi-partner arrangements in key emerging markets.

At the same time, the case highlights how China’s outbound finance spans the full energy spectrum, including upstream projects that help secure access to global oil supply chains as domestic energy transition unfolds. These upstream projects do not directly support energy transitions in EMDE, but they shape the global supply landscape and demonstrate how different categories of Chinese official actors – SOEs, sovereign funds and banks – engage with host countries across the full energy spectrum.