State of the transition

Emissions

  • Total CO2 emissions are higher today than in 2015. Reductions in recent years have come from declines in global production, while direct CO2 emissions intensity remains unchanged.

  • Both need to fall in the coming years to get on track for net zero by 2050, with contributions from improved material efficiency, greater use of alternative fuels and supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs), and CCS.

Cost

  • Production costs1 for early commercial plants for near-zero emissions cement using CCS are estimated to be 75-150% higher than today’s conventional plants, varying by region.

  • This cost premium will need to be addressed to meet the pace of the IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE Scenario). Complementary measures such as material efficiency and increased use of SCMs – when paired with CCS – could potentially lower the cost of the transition.

Deployment

  • Since last year2, capacity for near-zero emissions3 cement by 2030 has grown by 30% to about 35 Mt, driven by new projects and greater clarity on how 3 Mt of announced near-zero emissions capable1 capacity would operate, leading to its re-allocation.

  • Capacity for the remaining near-zero emissions capable projects remained unchanged at 7 Mt.

  • Despite this progress, the project pipeline falls short of the pace of the NZE Scenario by 2030. Closing the gap will require collaborative efforts.

Success statements

Existing definitions for near-zero and low-emissions cement and concrete are adopted across all regions and any adaptations are globally interoperable, and existing emissions measurement methodologies are made more transparent, interoperable and net zero compatible, with coherent chain of custody rules

Why is it important to achieve the success statement to reach the sectoral breakthrough goal?

Definitions and standards that establish emissions intensity thresholds for near-zero and low-emissions cement and concrete production can underpin many enabling mechanisms. These can feed-in to product-level thresholds, which can support further emissions reductions as well as material efficiency measures.

  • Coalescence around existing definitions – and promotion of their use – could avoid the creation of more proposals and associated challenges to clarity.

  • Emissions measurement methodologies provide a framework for measuring and accounting emissions to support the development of definitions and standards, among other uses

  • Interoperable and net zero compatible 5 methodologies can improve clarity and reduce reporting burden. Existing schemes offer a robust basis, but some require revisions to make them fit for purpose, and a method to translate among methodologies is needed.

  • Chain of custody schemes help track materials and attributes through supply chains, and alternative schemes are emerging as mechanisms to provide flexibility and encourage action on decarbonisation. In all cases, robust reporting and verification are important to avoid double-counting emissions reductions and ensure additionality, as are rules for consistent emissions accounting and appropriate, transparent marketing of materials.

  • Greater clarity on the process and responsibilities for revising existing methodologies can accelerate and guide convergence towards greater alignment, especially in policy applications.

Quantitative indicator for success

  • Number of countries using interoperable definitions or standards for near-zero and low-emissions cement or concrete in the development and implementation of policy measures.

  • Share of production potentially covered by voluntary labels for near-zero and low-emissions cement or concrete.

Qualitative examples of collaboration

  • At COP 29, the Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) launched their Global Ratings for Cement and Concrete, designed for interoperability with existing definitions like the Industrial Deep Decarbonisation Initiative (IDDI)’s definitions for near-zero and low-emissions cement. In parallel, the German Cement Works Association (VDZ) developed the Cement Carbon Class in alignment with these definitions. In addition, Cement Concrete and Aggregates Australia are launching an adaptation of the definition in Australia.

  • ConcreteZero established the equivalency of its Low Embodied Carbon Concrete Threshold across multiple global rating systems, providing a template towards improved interoperability of definitions.

  • Efforts are underway to develop chain of custody guidelines and robust book-and-claim systems, including by the GCCA, and by RMI and the Center for Green Market Activation. In the case of the latter, a draft framework for a book-and-claim system was published in August 2025.

  • Multilateral fora (e.g. the IEA Working Party on Industrial Decarbonisation, Climate Club, OECD Inclusive Forum on Carbon Mitigation Approaches, IDDI) are facilitating co-operation between governments on definitions and measurement methodologies. The Climate Club Members Statement at COP 29 affirmed the emerging common understandings on definitions and convergence among scientific, public and private initiatives on thresholds.

  • The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Protocol recently announced a partnership to harmonise their existing GHG standards and co-develop new standards for emissions measurement and reporting, serving as a potential positive step towards greater interoperability for emissions measurement that could be taken forward in the cement and concrete sectors.

Near-zero and low-emissions cement and concrete demand commitments are considerably expanded and include new markets and end-use sectors, and commitments are converted to firm offtake and advance purchase agreements

Why is it important to achieve the success statement to reach the sectoral breakthrough goal?

  • Signalled demand for near-zero emissions cement and concrete is a major pull factor to establish lead markets, helping de-risk early deployments and encouraging scale-up. The impact could be even greater when complemented with parallel demand for low-emissions materials and material efficiency measures, which can encourage progress on near-term emissions reductions and growth of markets for lower-emissions materials.

  • Demand for near-zero and low-emissions cement and concrete is limited to small offtakes and falls short of the pace and scale needed for the industry transition.

  • Demand commitments, especially when aggregated, can amplify market signals and accelerate the process of securing offtakes. Public procurement commitments can be a key lever.

  • Broad coverage of commitments can build momentum for market scale-up across all contexts. Uptake could be accelerated by revision of construction and building codes to allow greater use of cements using alternative raw materials while meeting performance and safety requirements.

  • Firm offtakes and advance purchase agreements provide greater certainty for suppliers, facilitating final investment decisions (FIDs) and the establishment of supply chains.

Quantitative indicators for success

  • Cumulative number of public and private offtakes or purchase agreements for near-zero emissions cement and/or concrete.

  • Number of countries in which public and/or private organisations have made demand commitments for near-zero emissions cement and/or concrete, or in which government policies to incentivise private purchases have been implemented.

Qualitative examples of collaboration

  • Existing public and private sector initiatives (First Movers Coalition, ConcreteZero, IDDI) for near-zero and low-emissions cement and concrete demand aggregation are enabling market formation through focused efforts to support their members in translating demand commitments into offtakes. Today, over 40 organisations have made commitments under these initiatives. Further momentum was built at COP 29 with a joint call to action for governments to take the IDDI Green Public Procurement Pledge.

  • FMC First Suppliers Hub is facilitating new offtakes through its buyer-supplier matching platform, which now has over 40 offerings for lower-emissions cement and concrete. More recently, RMI and the Center for Green Market Activation launched the Sustainable Concrete Buyers Alliance to aggregate demand.

Scaled-up delivery programmes for international financial and technical assistance have enabled large-scale projects across all regions, building on pilot assistance programmes and learnings from RD&D and early commercial near-zero emissions cement projects

Why is it important to achieve the success statement to reach the sectoral breakthrough goal?

  • Emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) are not well represented in the project pipeline for near-zero emissions cement and concrete, due in part to conditions for first-of-a-kind investments that are typically less favourable than in advanced economies. Financial and technical assistance could help enable deployment.

  • Many existing assistance programmes are still at an early stage and require successful piloting before being scaled up. Stronger engagement in matchmaking platforms improves delivery of assistance to help fast-track large-scale projects in EMDEs.

  • Learnings from the first wave of large-scale near-zero emissions cement projects – mainly in advanced economies – could de-risk and facilitate subsequent deployments in EMDEs. Likewise, collaboration on RD&D, including with EMDEs, could support development of emerging solutions.

  • Deepened engagement in knowledge exchange initiatives with the aim to improve the quality and efficacy of information exchange can enable faster innovation and drive down deployment costs.

  • Expansion of targeted assistance programmes and bilateral strategic partnerships can offer more tailored support and, in the case of the latter, can foster stronger bilateral relations and co-operation that can create reciprocal benefits.

Quantitative indicator for success

  • Number of large-scale projects for near-zero emission cement reaching FIDs in EMDEs that are engaged in assistance programmes and/or relevant bilateral partnerships.

  • Amount of venture capital funding invested in the cement and concrete sector globally and by region.

Qualitative examples of collaboration

  • The COP 29 Global pledge for scaling international assistance for industry decarbonisation committed USD 1.3 billion in support from several governments and initiatives.

  •  The Global Matchmaking Platform (GMP) was launched at COP 29, to make support for industrial decarbonisation more accessible for EMDEs. To date, over 20 countries have been engaged through the GMP.

  • Through a partnership between ITA and Brazil, three cement decarbonisation projects were selected for support in Brazil, with the goal to advance them to reach FID.

  • Thanks to GCCA’s 2050 Net Zero Roadmap Accelerator Program, nearly 50% of production outside of China is now covered by decarbonisation roadmaps, with current efforts focused on EMDEs.

References
  1. Levelised cost of production (LCOP). Estimated LCOPs are based on regional averages, accounting for variation in energy inputs and costs by region, and do not include explicit policy supports, e.g. carbon pricing or subsidies. Regional variation in capital and non-energy operating expenses is not considered. Energy prices, intensities, and fuel mixes from 2024 are used for calculation of LCOPs. The box shows the range of expected typical LCOP values; whiskers show the average LCOP in higher- and lower-cost regions.

  2. Near-zero emissions projects are those that have reached a sufficiently advanced development stage, and meet the criteria in footnote 3. Concept-stage projects are considered only near-zero emissions capable due to greater uncertainty of its completion.

  3. “Near-zero emissions” refers to projects that will operate at an emissions intensity consistent with near-zero emissions from the start, as defined in the IEA report Achieving Net Zero Heavy Industry Sectors in G7 Members.

  4. “Near-zero emissions capable” is capacity that operates with the same core process equipment as near-zero emissions capacity and will attain a substantial reduction in emissions intensity (compared to current conventional technologies) from the start – but initially fall short of the emissions intensity for near-zero emissions – with clear plans to reduce emissions further to a level consistent with near-zero emissions at a later date and with technical capabilities such that it can reach near-zero emissions without substantial additional capital investment in core process equipment.

  5. Interoperability means that different methodologies are coherent and can work alongside one another (e.g. it becomes possible to compare the results of two methodologies on an equivalent basis), enabling clear and consistent communication and interpretation, even though methodologies may not be exactly the same due to different purposes and/or scopes. Net zero compatibility means that measurement methodologies can be applied to the full range of technologies that are needed for the net zero transition and are designed in a way that incentivises choices in favour of the net zero transition.