Energy security context, framework and overview

The strategic importance of Southeast Asia in the global energy landscape has been steadily growing for many years, and the trajectory shows no signs of reversing. The region is projected to account for nearly 20% of the increase in global energy demand to 2035 under today’s policy settings. At the same time, recent geopolitical tensions, including the conflict in the Middle East, have highlighted Southeast Asia’s exposure to energy imports and global energy price volatility.

Against this backdrop, this report – agreed under the ASEAN IEA Work Plan and prepared in co‑ordination with ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) – is particularly timely as governments across the region consider policy and investment strategies amid the strong prioritisation of energy security.

Reflecting the growing importance of Southeast Asia and the deepening partnership between the IEA and ASEAN, the IEA has significantly expanded its engagement across the region. This includes its co‑operation with four ASEAN member states that are Association countries of the IEA: Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. This engagement was further strengthened with the opening of the IEA Regional Co‑operation Centre in Singapore in late 2024, the IEA’s first office outside Paris.

Energy demand trends

Southeast Asia is one of the world’s fastest-growing regions. Its GDP grew by nearly 5% in 2024 and is projected to rise by an average of 4% per year through to 2035, supported by the region’s role as a global manufacturing hub.

As ASEAN economies have expanded, their total energy demand has risen by 40% since 2015, reflecting the region’s growing industrial, transport and household energy needs.

Industry is the largest end-use sector in Southeast Asia and has been the main driver of energy demand growth since 2015, supported by expanding manufacturing activity, non-energy-intensive industries and non-ferrous metal production. Transport has also been a major source of demand growth, particularly for oil, with rising road freight activity, higher incomes, limited public transport alternatives and growing vehicle ownership shaping mobility needs across ASEAN countries. In buildings, rising incomes, urbanisation and expanding access to electricity and clean cooking have reshaped household energy demand.

Electricity demand has increased by more than 60% since 2015, driven by wider access, higher industrial consumption, urbanisation, and rising demand for cooling and other appliances. About 97% of households now have access to electricity, putting the region on track to achieve universal access by 2030. Over the coming decade, electricity demand is expected to grow faster than overall energy demand.

Composition of the energy mix

Rising energy demand has driven major shifts in Southeast Asia’s energy mix over the past decade. Between 2015 and 2025, total ASEAN energy demand increased by more than 40%, driven by strong economic growth and rising electricity demand. To meet this growing demand, energy supply expanded across all major fuel and energy sources. In 2025, coal and oil each accounted for around 30% of the total energy supply – 540 million tonnes of coal and roughly 9 mb/d of oil respectively – while natural gas contributed close to one-fifth, corresponding to 200 bcm of gas. Bioenergy and waste accounted for around 12%, wind, solar and other renewables for around 7%, and hydro for around 3%. LPG consumption, which has grown strongly over the past decade, in particular in Cambodia and Indonesia, makes up about 5% of total final consumption in the region (around 300 mb of total annual consumption in 2025). Taken together, the ASEAN energy mix is gradually diversifying, even as fossil fuels remain central to meeting demand.

Investment trends provide another indication of how the region’s energy system is evolving. Fossil fuels accounted for 60% of total energy investment over the past decade, with coal receiving the largest share. Investment in coal-fired generation has increased steadily over the past two decades, bringing installed capacity to 121 GW last year. However, annual clean energy investment in the region increased from USD 30 billion to USD 47 billion over the last decade, with annual fossil fuel investment falling from USD 70 billion to USD 50 billion during the same period.

At the same time, Southeast Asia is becoming more important in clean energy supply chains. In 2023, Malaysia, Thailand and Viet Nam were the largest solar PV manufacturers after the People’s Republic of China (hereafter, “China”). The region also holds substantial critical mineral resources. Indonesia produces more than 60% of the world’s nickel and attracted over USD 50 billion of greenfield mining investment between 2014 and 2023, more than 90% of the global total. Chinese investment has been central to the expansion of Indonesia’s nickel refining sector, reaching USD 30 billion in 2024, and Chinese companies now account for around 75% of the country’s refining capacity.

Import dependency ratios

Import dependency in the ASEAN region differs markedly by fuel. While crude oil and oil products remain significant sources of import dependency for many ASEAN economies, natural gas and coal continue to exhibit regional net export positions, albeit with a wide variation between countries. These differences reflect variations in resource endowment, production capacity and energy consumption patterns across ASEAN member states. This section provides the current backdrop for the fuel security assessments that follow.

Crude oil is a major source of import dependency in many ASEAN member states. Although Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam and Thailand remain exporters of crude oil, regional oil output has declined by around 40% since its peak in the 1990s. Since 2015, crude oil imports have risen by more than 30%, increasing exposure to international markets and external supply risks. Oil products present a related but distinct source of exposure. Regional refineries meet much of Southeast Asia’s refined product demand, providing some buffer against disruption in product markets. However, this downstream resilience remains constrained by reliance on imported crude as refinery feedstock, with around 45% of refined oil products derived from Middle Eastern crude. This dependence, compounded by relatively inflexible refineries configured to process medium and heavy Gulf crudes, represents a structural weakness in the region's energy system.

ASEAN remains a net gas exporter, but if current trends continue the region could become a net importer of gas by the end of the decade. Natural gas is largely supplied from within the region, with around 90% of demand met by production within ASEAN, mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. LNG accounts for more than 85% of the region’s net gas export balance. However, LNG imports have increased steadily in recent years, reflecting growing import requirements in several ASEAN member states. Countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia both import and export LNG due to regional supply–demand mismatches, infrastructure constraints and long-term export commitments. As domestic production declines and import requirements grow, ASEAN’s gas export surplus is expected to narrow, with the region becoming a net gas importer towards the end of the decade.

Coal presents a markedly different picture. ASEAN remains a net coal exporter, but this position rests heavily on Indonesia, which accounts for nearly 90% of regional production and acts as a key balancing supplier in international coal markets. Despite this regional export position, several ASEAN member states, including the Philippines and Viet Nam, are increasingly reliant on imported coal (often from within the region) for their power sector needs, while limited regional coking coal resources make imports critical for steelmaking and metals processing.

While these indicators provide a regional perspective on energy security, they can mask important differences between ASEAN member states. Resource endowments, infrastructure and fuel trade patterns vary considerably across the region, meaning that national energy security outcomes may differ from the regional picture. The indicators below therefore complement the regional analysis by highlighting these country-level differences.

Recent disruptions to global energy markets, including the 2022 global energy crisis caused by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the more recent conflict in the Middle East, have brought the energy security implications of fuel import dependency to the forefront. Prior to the Middle East conflict, around 60% of Southeast Asia's crude oil imports and one-third of its natural gas imports originated from the Middle East. The resulting disruption to fuel markets exposed vulnerabilities linked to import dependency, limited diversification and concentrated supply routes, contributing to higher energy prices, inflationary pressures and broader economic risks across the region.

While import dependency provides a useful indication of exposure to external energy markets, fuel security outcomes also depend on factors such as supply diversification, infrastructure resilience, stockholding and the ability to respond to disruption. These broader considerations are examined further in the individual fuel and technology chapters of this review.

Energy intensity and efficiency

Energy intensity and efficiency trends are important indicators of how effectively ASEAN economies use energy as demand continues to grow.

ASEAN's energy intensity has improved modestly, easing from around 3.15 GJ to an estimated 3.01 GJ per thousand USD between 2015 and 2025, but improving more slowly than the global average. At the same time, energy use per capita has continued to climb, from around 38 GJ to 49 GJ, reflecting rising demand across the region's economy.

Against rising energy demand, energy efficiency has become a growing policy focus across ASEAN. Ten of the eleven ASEAN member states have established energy efficiency or energy savings targets extending to between 2030 and 2060, while under the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2026-2030, the region aims to achieve a 40% reduction in energy intensity based on total primary energy supply by 2030, compared with 2005.

While these targets set a common direction, progress varies across sectors. In industry, most ASEAN member states have introduced mandatory energy management requirements, audits and energy-saving measures, with targeted incentives such as tax relief for efficient machinery in Thailand and dedicated financing in Viet Nam. In transport, governments across the region are accelerating EV uptake, but progress in improving the efficiency of conventional vehicle fleets has been slower, with mandatory fuel economy standards for both light- and heavy-duty vehicles still largely absent. In buildings, energy codes that deliver sector-wide savings are in place across most ASEAN member states, although there remains significant scope to strengthen implementation and enforcement to unlock deeper efficiency gains.

Energy efficiency’s role in strengthening resilience and reducing import exposure is examined further in the Energy efficiency and demand management chapter.

Energy security needs to be assessed across fuels, technologies and systems. Recent energy market disruptions have reinforced the importance of secure, affordable and sustainable energy supply, while also showing that energy security risks are becoming more interconnected. Traditional risks linked to fuel availability, import dependency, infrastructure adequacy and emergency preparedness remain central. At the same time, new risks are emerging from electricity system transformation, growing dependence on critical minerals, clean energy supply chains, climate impacts and cyber resilience. This report therefore applies a common framework across the chapters, while recognising that not every dimension is equally relevant for every fuel or technology.

For the purposes of this review, energy security is understood to be the ability to ensure the uninterrupted availability of energy at affordable prices, while maintaining the flexibility and resilience needed to manage shocks and longer-term stresses. The framework below sets out the main factors considered throughout the report. It should be read as a common reference point rather than a checklist applied mechanically to every chapter. The oil, gas and coal chapters use the framework most directly, while the electricity, critical minerals, and energy efficiency and demand-side management chapters apply it in ways that reflect their specific role in the wider energy system.

The framework considers five interconnected dimensions: supply-side security, demand-side readiness, exposure to economic and price risk, system resilience, and emergency planning. Together, these dimensions provide a structured lens for assessing ASEAN countries’ exposure to fuel and technology risks, their ability to reduce or shift demand during stress periods, the affordability implications of energy market shocks, the resilience of infrastructure and systems, and the preparedness of institutions to respond during crises. They are not meant as a measurement tool to assess the energy security situation quantitatively.

The assessment focuses primarily on a five-year horizon. This timeframe is long enough to capture expected changes in demand, supply, infrastructure, investment and policy implementation, and short enough to remain relevant for current government mandates and near-term regional co‑operation. Where relevant, the report also refers to longer-term transition objectives, such as net zero targets, coal retirement plans, clean energy supply chains and strategic stockholding goals, but the main emphasis is on risks and policy options that can be addressed in the coming five years. The longer-term outlook to 2050 is covered in the IEA’s Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2026.

The six thematic chapters that follow cover the main areas of the ASEAN energy system. The oil, gas and coal chapters follow a broadly similar structure: each starts with recent market developments and a five-year outlook, before assessing security risks related to supply, import dependency, infrastructure, price exposure, system resilience and emergency preparedness. The chapters on electricity, critical minerals, and energy efficiency and demand-side management are less directly comparable, as each addresses a different part of the energy system and therefore applies the common energy security assessment framework in a more tailored way.

Oil and biofuels security review. This chapter examines ASEAN countries’ growing oil demand, declining regional crude production and continued reliance on imported crude and refined products. It also reviews refining capacity, biofuels, five-year supply–demand trends, oil stockholding arrangements, demand-side response and the scope for stronger regional emergency preparedness.

Natural gas and low-emissions gases security review. This chapter assesses the role of natural gas in the ASEAN energy system, including gas demand and production, LNG and pipeline trade, low-emissions gases and the outlook to 2030. It focuses on rising LNG import needs, exposure to global gas market risks, infrastructure adequacy, demand-side flexibility, system resilience and emergency planning.

Coal and solid biofuels security review. This chapter reviews coal demand, reserves, production, trade and infrastructure across ASEAN countries, highlighting the region’s overall net export position and the large differences between ASEAN member states. It also considers the implications of coal use in power generation and industry, import dependency for some ASEAN member states, metallurgical coal exposure, stockholding practices and the interaction between coal security and transition planning.

Electricity and renewables security review. This chapter examines electricity demand and supply trends, the adequacy, reliability and resilience of power systems, and the security implications of increased electrification and rising shares of variable renewables and distributed resources. It considers system flexibility, grid integration, affordability, climate resilience, supply chains for solar PV and wind, and the role of regional co‑operation through power system interconnections.

Energy efficiency and demand-side management. This chapter assesses how energy efficiency and demand-side measures can reduce energy security risks by lowering demand growth, easing import dependency and improving system flexibility. It reviews progress on energy intensity, policy frameworks and sector-specific measures in buildings, appliances, transport and industry, as well as the emerging role of demand-side flexibility in electricity systems.

Critical minerals security review. This chapter focuses on ASEAN countries’ role in critical mineral supply chains, with particular attention paid to resource endowments, mining and processing capacity, investment conditions and policy frameworks. It assesses how critical minerals can contribute to economic development and clean energy supply chains, while also identifying risks related to supply concentration, permitting, infrastructure, financing and environmental and social governance.