Colombia is the third-largest country in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) by population, with 53 million inhabitants. Its economy has grown steadily since 1971, even during the “lost decade” experienced by LAC in the 1980s, and with very few exceptions during global crises. GDP has increased by an annual average of 2.4% since 2015, outpacing the regional average of 1.2%. This growth has been accompanied by tangible improvements in indicators of living standards for Colombia’s population: access to clean cooking and electricity have significantly improved, both standing at more than 90% in 2024; the country’s poverty rate has fallen from 24% in 2000 to below 8%.

In Colombia’s economy, exports are mostly driven by natural resources and less by high-value goods. While the service and agriculture sectors account for a high share of Colombia’s GDP, fossil fuels still comprised 10% of GDP and 45% of total exports in 2024, despite declining production trends. Colombia is currently the sixth-largest coal exporter globally and the fourth-largest oil exporter in the region, meaning its economy is exposed to fuel price volatility. Exporting primary materials and importing higher-value goods such as refined products or cars places Colombia as a net importer in monetary terms.

Over 75% of Colombia’s total energy demand was met by fossil fuels in 2024, of which oil comprised more than 40%, followed by natural gas and coal. Oil is the main fuel used to meet transport demand at 90%, while coal plays a core role in meeting industry’s needs at 40%; electricity feeds 40% of energy demand from buildings. Overall, electricity accounted for 18% of Colombia’s final consumption in 2024. Hydropower represented around two-thirds of the country’s electricity generation over the past decade, although the annual share fluctuated by as much as 10 percentage points as weather patterns caused by El Niño and La Niña cycles affect rainfall and temperature, impacting reservoir levels.

Economic and population growth have resulted in Colombia’s total energy demand almost doubling between 2000 and 2024. As three-quarters of this growth has been supplied by fossil fuels, energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased by more than 50% over the same period. Energy-related emissions comprised around 30% of its total GHG emissions in 2021. Other key sources of emissions are from land use, land-use change and forestry, which represented almost 40% of the total in 2021. Agricultural emissions represent 20% of the 2021 total.

Colombia’s Long-Term Strategy E2050, published in 2021, sets out an overarching objective to achieve net zero GHG emissions by 2050. Colombia aims to meet this target by reducing its energy-related 2050 GHG emissions by 90% compared with 2015; the remaining 10% of emissions are to be captured or offset through land-based CO2 sequestration.

At the request of and in consultation with the Government of Colombia, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has prepared this report, “An Energy Sector Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions in Colombia”. The work was carried out in close collaboration with the Mining and Energy Planning Unit (Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética [UPME]) and the Ministry for Mines and Energy (Ministerio de Minas y Energía [MME]). The IEA’s contribution complements – and has benefited from – the high-quality modelling and analysis already being conducted in Colombia to identify pathways towards a net zero emissions target.

There is no single pathway to net zero emissions for Colombia. This report presents a pathway to reach this goal, not the pathway. Our analysis is centred on the IEA’s Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), in which Colombia reaches its net zero pledge by 2050 alongside all other countries meeting their announced long-term net zero emissions targets.

Colombia’s end-use consumption per capita is structurally low – a quarter of the OECD average: it has a high ownership rate of two/three-wheelers versus thirstier cars for its congested cities; non-energy-intensive industries account for a high share of industrial demand; and its climate means few households require space heating. Colombia has plentiful undeveloped resources to supply clean energy. Potential remains in the country’s well-developed hydropower sector, enabled by the undulating landscape which provides sites for dams near population centres. Colombia’s solar and wind resources are also strong: the solar PV capacity factor averages around 17%, with highest potential in the centre and north, while wind capacity factors can reach more than 45% in La Guajira – levels above global averages.

Up to 2035, the pathway reverses Colombia’s trend of rising emissions by deploying clean energy technologies, enabling a decline in fossil fuel demand. It results in a 30% emissions reduction in 2035 in the APS compared with today’s levels. The power sector contributes half of this fall as solar PV and, in part, wind take hold, reducing the emissions intensity of the power sector by more than 85% to less than 35 grammes of CO2 per kilowatt hour. The electrification of end uses – for example, electric vehicle (EV) sales reach 80% of the market in 2035 in the APS – displaces fossil fuels, offsetting emissions increases from economic growth. Furthermore, strong policies and declining fossil fuel production lead to energy-related methane emissions declining by around 75% to 2035.

After 2035, clean technology deployment in end-use sectors – which had already started to make inroads – further accelerates, becoming the main driver of emissions decline. The transport sector alone accounts for half of the emissions decline from 2035 to 2050, as continued EV sales embed into an increasingly electrified vehicle stock. Around 40% of emissions reductions come from the industry and buildings sectors, as electrification and efficiency improvements take hold. Bioenergy, hydrogen and carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) contribute to these emissions reductions – they play a crucial role in long-distance transport and energy-intensive industries. In the power sector, solar PV and wind expansion continues, complemented by a 50% increase in the capacity of dispatchable low-emissions sources from 2035 to 2050, to ensure that rapidly rising electricity demand can be met by renewables substituting fossil fuels, with a coal phase-out by 2040.

The transport sector currently accounts for almost 40% of Colombia’s total final consumption and emissions, mostly in the form of imported refined oil products. Although two/three-wheelers make up 70% of vehicles, cars and vans account for almost half of transport demand, and economic growth more than doubles car ownership by 2050 in the APS. The rollout of EVs is crucial to arrest the emissions increase: the share of EVs in car sales rises sharply from a third in 2030 to virtually all cars by 2040, increasingly permeating the car fleet so that by 2050 more than 80% of cars on the road are EVs. Electric buses follow suit, building on the 1 500 already deployed in Bogotá, supporting public transport decarbonisation in cities with challenging geographies for metro infrastructure. Despite Colombia’s mountainous terrain and challenges in meeting long-distance charging requirements, 70% of all heavy freight trucks are electric by 2050, with biofuels and hydrogen filling the gap.

Colombia’s industry sector is poised for substantial growth, particularly in non-energy-intensive industries, nearly doubling output by 2050. In the APS, electricity becomes the leading source of energy in industry by 2050, followed by bioenergy. Electrification is driven by non-energy-intensive industries, such as the food industry, which accounts for a quarter of Colombia’s current industrial energy demand. As carbon prices rise, heat pumps and electric boilers become increasingly competitive for low-temperature processes. By displacing coal, electricity’s share of energy for food processing rises from around 15% in 2024 to 45% by 2050. Energy-intensive industries see slower electrification, but advances in hydrogen, bioenergy and CCUS technologies offer long-term potential to reduce emissions.

Rising incomes, expanding floorspace and increasing access to household equipment drive energy demand in buildings along the pathway. The share of electricity in the sector’s fuel mix doubles to 80% by 2050, supported by widespread cooking electrification and the rapid uptake of cooling demand, as the rate of air conditioner ownership is projected to more than quadruple by mid-century. Efficiency gains – especially through ambitious minimum energy performance standards for air conditioning and appliances – play an important role in curbing demand growth, avoiding 215 PJ by 2050 – half of the current buildings demand.

Solar PV emerges as the leading power generation source, with capacity exceeding 65 GW by 2050, similar to Brazil’s current capacity. It helps meet electricity demand that, including hydrogen production, almost quadruples to 300 TWh in 2050 in the APS. While wind capacity grows to 25 GW by 2050, dispatchable low-emissions capacity from hydro, nuclear, bioenergy and geothermal doubles to 30 GW, strengthening system reliability. Grid flexibility is further supported by a rapid scale-up of battery storage, rising to 48 GW in 2050. Some natural gas and oil generation remains for backup use and electricity access in remote areas. The electricity grid, spanning over 750 000 km in 2024, nearly doubles to meet rising demand and integrate variable renewables, calling for annual grid investment to rise to USD 4.2 billion by 2050.

Tapping into the potential of Colombia’s agriculture sector and other residues, the share of bioenergy in total energy demand rises from 10% in 2024 to 25% in 2050. Domestic liquid biofuel production shifts from conventional to emerging sources like waste and residues; solid bioenergy increases in energy-intensive industries and power; and gaseous bioenergy takes a higher share of power generation. Meanwhile, low-emissions hydrogen production surges through water electrolysis projects, reaching around 1.2 million tonnes by 2050 in the APS as Colombia capitalises on its strong renewables potential and competitive production costs. Early growth in low-emissions hydrogen is export-driven, but domestic demand, especially from transport and industry, rises steadily.

Just energy transitions are central to Colombia’s policy framework. In the APS, the country accelerates its progress in increasing access to electricity and clean cooking: 4.2 million people gain access to clean cooking by 2030 to reach universal access. A shift to low-emissions technologies creates new employment opportunities, estimated at an additional 77 000 jobs by 2035. However, declines in fossil fuel employment mean that total energy sector employment is set to remain stable to 2035 in the APS at around 300 000 jobs. Transition employment challenges will likely be most acute in fossil fuel-producing departments such as La Guajira, Cesar (coal) or Meta (oil). Some synergies are possible: around a third of current low-emissions projects are within 50 kilometres of coal mines. Strategic support for industries linked to the energy transition could even increase the total number of energy sector jobs, accompanied by the retraining of workers to help them switch employment to low-emissions technologies.

Colombia’s electricity security is influenced by its climate variability. It has alternating wet and dry seasons, with El Niño and La Niña events amplifying swings in precipitation and temperature patterns. With hydropower generation currently leading, and a pathway to net zero emissions increasingly reliant on variable renewables, weather patterns and climate change emphasise the need to plan a resilient energy system. Hydropower output could decline up to 25% by 2100 under high-warming scenarios. Complementary dispatchable low-emissions sources like bioenergy, geothermal and nuclear power will help alleviate pressure, but as renewable energy expands and fossil fuel use declines, better management of the grid and scaling up system flexibility will be paramount. Furthermore, droughts and wildfires – both aggravated by El Niño – are further considerations for grid siting and management; over half of Colombia’s current networks lie in fire-prone zones. While the required infrastructure for the electrification of end uses introduces new security challenges, it also enhances energy security by reducing dependence, especially on refined oil products.

Clean energy investment is expected to exceed fossil fuel investment for the first time in 2025 and reach almost 85% of total annual energy investment by 2035 in the APS. The power sector transition accounts for half of clean energy investment, mainly to build out grid infrastructure, solar PV, wind generation and battery storage; the balance is for end uses such as EVs and building retrofits. International public finance is crucial to mobilise private investment in the transition, especially given the lower revenues from fossil fuels. Colombia’s Country Platform is a key initiative to mobilise resources to support this transition, although high financing costs and access to long-term debt remain key challenges.

On a net zero pathway, Colombia’s energy sector economy will pivot towards clean energy technologies, presenting growth opportunities. As production from its mature oil and gas fields wanes, and barring significant investment in new developments, its fossil fuel market size is set to decline whether a net zero pathway is taken or not. Yet the decarbonisation of Colombia’s energy system shifts the focus to other market sectors: the size of the clean energy market is projected to rise fivefold by 2050 in the APS, bringing with it a new set of job opportunities and revenue streams. With strategic planning and support for specific industries, Colombia’s clean energy market size could exceed that in the APS, potentially by one-third in 2050. Realising these opportunities will depend on co‑ordinated action and strong investment to support the shift away from fossil fuels.