Kenya’s power industry generation and transmission system planning is undertaken on the basis of a 20 year rolling Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP), updated every year.
It is estimated that 2011 peak load will grow 13 times by the year 2031. Forecasted peak demand for 2031 is 15,026 MW. The government of Kenya in its LCPDP for period 2011-2031 identified that geothermal is the least-cost choice technology to meet Kenya’s growing energy demand. The cumulative geothermal capacity target is 5.5 GW for the planning period, which is equivalent to 26% of the system peak demand by 2031. Wind and hydro power plants will provide 9% and 5% of total capacity respectively by 2031.
The present value of the total system expansion cost over the period 2011-2031 for the reference case development plan amounts to US.$ 41.4 billion, expressed in constant prices as of the beginning of 2010.
The transmission development plan indicates the need to develop approximately 10,345 Kms of new lines at an estimated present cost of USD 4.48 Billion.
The Ministry of Energy (MoE) is responsible for a timely implementation of the LCPDP by 2031.