SINGAPORE – Southeast Asia is set to become a key driver of world energy trends over the next 20 years as its energy demand grows at twice the global average, reflecting the region’s economic rise but also increasing the challenges for its policy makers, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency.
Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019 finds encouraging indications in many areas, but also some warning signs in terms of the security and sustainability of energy systems. The report, part of the IEA’s flagship World Energy Outlook series, was released alongside two other studies focused on the region: The Future of Cooling in Southeast Asia and ASEAN Renewable Energy Integration Analysis.
The content of the reports reflects the priorities of senior energy leaders in Southeast Asia. In 2018, energy ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) called for “stronger institutional ties” between ASEAN and the IEA, and requested the Agency’s assistance in several specific areas, including regional power trade, renewables integration, cooling efficiency and investment. These topics are all examined in detailed deep dives in the new reports. Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s Director of Energy Markets and Security, is presenting the report today at the 3rd Singapore-IEA Forum, part of Singapore International Energy Week.
Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019 and the two accompanying reports are a demonstration of the IEA’s ever deepening ties with Southeast Asia and ASEAN member states. The IEA has expansive work programmes with nations across the region, notably Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore, which are IEA Association countries. ASEAN identified the IEA as “a key strategic partner” this year, putting it in a unique position to work with and assist the region. The agency’s collaboration with national governments and ASEAN takes place across a wide range of energy issues such as energy efficiency, investment, power systems, energy security and data.
"Southeast Asia is set to have a major impact over the next two decades, adding the equivalent of Japan’s entire energy system to global demand. This rapid growth underscores the importance of Southeast Asian countries’ energy policies for their citizens but also for the world," said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director.
"As a key strategic partner of ASEAN, the IEA aims to help the region tackle its energy challenges across all fuels and all technologies, including through the insights provided in these latest reports," Dr Birol said.
According to Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019, the region is well on the way to achieving universal access to electricity by 2030. Millions of people in Southeast Asia have gained access to electricity since 2000, yet some 45 million there are still without it today. Meanwhile, rising fuel demand has outpaced production from within the region, meaning Southeast Asia is now on a path to becoming a large net importer of fossil fuels – mostly oil – with an annual energy trade deficit that balloons to more than USD 300 billion by 2040 under today’s policy settings. As well as being extremely costly, this raises energy security concerns as the region becomes ever more dependent on fluctuations in global energy markets and more vulnerable to unpredictable geopolitical events.
Since 2000, Southeast Asia’s 80% increase in overall energy demand has largely been met by a doubling in fossil fuel use. Oil is the largest element in the regional energy mix, and coal – largely for power generation – has been the fastest growing. This has underpinned the region’s development and industrial growth, but has also made air pollution a major risk to public health and driven up energy-related CO2 emissions.
Investment in renewables is starting to pick up: renewable capacity is expected to expand by more than one-third over the next five years, led by solar PV and hydropower. However, without additional changes in policy intentions, renewable sources of power generation would account for only around one-third of the increase in electricity demand to 2040, according to the new Outlook.
Based on today’s policy settings, Southeast Asia’s overall energy demand is set to grow by 60% between now and 2040. All fuels and technologies play a part in meeting the projected increase: oil demand surpasses 9 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2040, up from just above 6.5 mb/d today. Coal demand rises steadily.
If the region continues on this track, the consequences would be troubling. The number of annual premature deaths associated with outdoor and household air pollution is projected to rise to more than 650 000 by 2040, up from an estimated 450 000 in 2018. The projected growth in fossil fuel consumption would drive a two-thirds rise in CO2 emissions, reaching almost 2.4 billion tonnes in 2040.
Steering the region on to a healthier and more sustainable path would require concerted action across all parts of the energy sector, driven by a major increase in investment that includes significantly higher private sector financing. The four essential pillars of this shift would be:
- Massively scaling up the deployment of renewables, which can be helped by greater integration of regional power systems and by leveraging the region’s modern bioenergy potential in a sustainable manner;
- Putting a major focus on improving energy efficiency, especially in fast-growing sector such as cooling and road transport;
- Phasing out fossil fuel consumption subsidies in order to spur more sustainable energy consumption and investment decisions;
- Tackling legacy issues, most notably by addressing emissions from the least-efficient coal plant. Carbon capture, utilisation and storage is a vital technology option to reduce emissions from the power sector and from industry.
The IEA will continue to offer the data, analysis and real-world solutions to help countries in the region achieve their energy policy objectives.
ASEAN’s member states are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam.