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Ukraine’s Energy Security
A pre-winter assessment As Ukraine enters its fourth winter of war, ensuring that residents retain reliable access to heat and power is of the utmost importance. While Ukraine made strong strides in rebuilding and strengthening the resilience of its energy system this past spring and summer, the situation remains fragile, and the risk of huge disruptions and widespread destabilisation remains – particularly as Russia expands the scope and sophistication of its attacks.This analysis builds on the IEA’s September 2024 report, Ukraine’s Energy Security and the Coming Winter. It provides an update on the latest developments through October…
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Unlocking Ukraine’s Hydrogen Opportunity: A Roadmap
…went from having a large capacity surplus before the war to a power deficit in 2024 due to Russia’s attacks. This has focused attention on energy security and restoring the reliability of supply. Hydrogen demand from conventional applications in refining and ammonia has also plunged, falling 80%, with most of these assets in southern Ukraine, where the frontline and occupied areas are located. Overall economic damage from the war has been extensive, with reconstruction costs previously estimated by the World Bank at more than USD 0.5 trillion – three times Ukraine’s GDP.Reconstruction offers an opportunity to build…
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Energy System Resilience
…its energy sector and to increase its ability to withstand and rapidly recover from Russia’s attacks on its energy infrastructure. The report explores the lessons that Ukraine has been learning as it works to bolster system resilience and identifies measures that apply to a range of high-impact events – such as cyberattacks, physical attacks on infrastructure, extreme and severe weather, and unexpected infrastructure failures – and can in turn be adopted by policymakers and regulators around the world, taking into account national circumstances and following assessments of costs and risk.The International Energy Agency (IEA) has worked closely with Ukraine…
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Russia's War on Ukraine
…effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which in February 2022 sparked the first truly global energy crisis. Two years on, energy prices have pulled back from record highs, but trends vary widely among regions. In many parts of the world, prices are still elevated – holding back economic growth, straining the finances of households and businesses, and complicating efforts to improve access to electricity. Energy markets, faced with an unusually high degree of geopolitical uncertainty, remain on edge.In Ukraine, the energy sector is on the front line of the war for the second consecutive winter. As temperatures have dropped, Russia has…
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Unlocking Ukraine’s Hydrogen Opportunity: A Roadmap Taking stock of the effect of war
…for reconstruction. Public debt reached nearly 100% of GDP at the end of 2024, with 80% in foreign currency. Ukraine is expected to have a fiscal deficit until at least 2033, and external finance will be needed. Foreign grants and development finance may be a source of public support for hydrogen projects, but will face competing needs for restoration elsewhere in the energy system. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has had a profound impact on the country. This chapter takes stock of the effects related to hydrogen, including demand for existing applications like ammonia and refining, as well…
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Policy options to accelerate distributed solar PV in Ukraine Distributed solar PV in Ukraine
…Tariff”) policy.However, this capacity was affected by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with roughly 1 GW of (mostly utility-scale) solar PV capacity damaged, destroyed or inaccessible due to occupation. Combined with hydropower (-1.5 GW) and wind power (-1.3 GW) losses, the drop in capacity resulted in a nearly 4 TWh decline in total renewable generation from 2021 to 2022. The war also had an impact on the pace of new utility-scale installations.Solar power was a leader in renewables deployment in 2024. According to various sources, including the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy, around 300 MW…
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Unlocking Ukraine’s Hydrogen Opportunity: A Roadmap Executive summary
…damaged or destroyed, leading to a power deficit equal to about one-third of peak demand. Hydrogen demand was nearly 1 Mtpa before the war, predominantly for ammonia production, with only about 40 ktpa from refining. However, assets have since been damaged or occupied and demand has plunged by almost 80%. Steel output, which represents a potential new application for hydrogen, has dropped by almost two-thirds.Massive capital mobilisation is needed for reconstruction, but there is also a lot of bilateral support flowing to Ukraine. The cost of reconstruction was estimated to have reached USD 524 billion by December 2024. Transport infrastructure is…
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Ukraine’s Energy Security A pre-winter assessment
Ukraine’s energy sector continues to be a major target of Russian missile and drone attacks As Ukraine enters its fourth winter of the war, energy infrastructure continues to be targeted by Russian attacks. Ukraine’s natural gas and power infrastructure remain vulnerable, with an increasing number of missiles and drones striking critical plants and pipelines. At the same time, evolving tactics and technologies are present a persistent challenge for Ukraine’s air and passive defences.Energy security is central to Ukraine’s overall security. Ensuring that Ukrainian citizens retain access to heat and power is of the utmost importance…
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Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2024 Executive summary
…tensions, energy security and affordability remain top priorities for Southeast Asia. The recent global energy crisis highlighted the region’s vulnerability to fuel price shocks, with fossil fuel consumption subsidies soaring to a record USD 105 billion in 2022 – nearly 60% above the previous peak. Energy security risks continue to loom large as Russia’s war in Ukraine continues and conflicts in the Middle East escalate, with Southeast Asia reliant on the Middle East for 60% of its current oil imports.Energy-related environmental issues, including poor air quality and the impacts of climate change, are becoming more urgent. In…
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From farms to fuel: Ukraine’s biomethane opportunity for energy security and European decarbonisation
Ukraine biomethane A strategic opportunity for biomethane in Ukraine In 2025, Ukraine exported biomethane to the European Union (EU) for the first time – a milestone that opens an opportunity to scale-up domestic low-emissions gas. Home to the largest agricultural land area in Europe, Ukraine has the resource potential to become one of the continent’s leading biomethane producers, supplying both its domestic market and the EU via an already existing pipeline infrastructure.The first exports of biomethane come at a critical moment. Repeated Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have exposed the vulnerabilities of centralised energy supply. Although…