-
Oil Market Report - May 2019
…demand growth estimate has been revised down by 70 kb/d to 1.2 mb/d and our 2019 forecast is reduced by 90 kb/d to 1.3 mb/d. Revisions for 2018 impacted mainly non-OECD Asia and African countries. The 2019 revision is seen in OECD Asia in 1Q19.Non-OECD countries will drive global oil demand in 2019, adding 1.1 mb/d of growth, with China and India growing by 0.7 mb/d. Net OECD growth will be 0.2 mb/d, led by the US. Global oil demand will average 100.4 mb/d in 2019.In April, global oil supply fell 300 kb/d…
-
Oil Market Report - April 2019
…trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. Highlights Our global demand growth estimates for 2018 and 2019 are again unchanged at 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively. After a slow start to the year, OECD growth will be 0.3 mb/d, with non-OECD growing by 1.1 mb/d.Demand in China, India and the US is estimated to have grown by 1 mb/d in Jan-Feb 2019. OECD demand fell in 4Q18 for the first time since end-2014 and also in 1Q19, mainly on weaker European numbers, but it will recover, led by the US.Global oil supply dropped…
-
Oil Market Report - March 2019
…d, on losses in Venezuela and lower output from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Outperformance by Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies with supply cuts pushed OPEC compliance to 94%.Global refining throughput returned to growth, with 1Q19 expected to be up 0.8 mb/d y-o-y. China accounts for over 90% of the increase, while weaker performance in other regions supported product cracks, resulting in the first gains in refinery margins since November. OECD commercial oil stocks rose 8.6 mb on the month in January to their highest level since November 2017. However, the increase was lower than the seasonal norm…
-
Oil Market Report - February 2019
… Highlights Our global demand estimate for 2018 is unchanged. Growth in 4Q18 was robust at 1.4 mb/d y-o-y and for 2018 as a whole growth was 1.3 mb/d. China (0.44 mb/d), India (0.21 mb/d) and the US (0.54 mb/d) contributed 1.19 mb/d of the total.Growth in demand in 2019 is expected to be 1.4 mb/d, unchanged from our last Report. It is supported by lower prices and the start-up of petrochemical projects in China and the US. Slowing economic growth will, however, limit any upside.Global supply fell 1.4 mb/d to 99.7 mb…
-
Oil Market Report - January 2019
…2019 are unchanged at 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively. The impact of higher oil prices in 2018 is fading, which will help offset lower economic growth.Non-OECD countries dominate oil demand growth in 2019, with the 875 kb/d seen last year accelerating to 1.15 mb/d. China and India provide 62% of the total. OECD growth will slow from 390 kb/d in 2018 to 280 kb/d in 2019. The US provides 82% of the OECD total.Global oil supply fell by 950 kb/d in December, led by lower OPEC output ahead of new supply cuts. At 100.6 mb/d…
-
Oil Market Report - September 2018
…1.4 mb/d and 1.5 mb/d, respectively. The pace of growth slowed sharply in 2Q18, caused by weaker OECD Europe and Asia demand. US gasoline demand growth eased due to higher prices.Non-OECD demand remains resilient but there is a risk to the 2019 outlook from currency depreciation and trade disputes. Demand in China and India combined will grow by 910 kb/d in 2018, but the pace slows to 640 kb/d in 2019.Global supply in August reached a record 100 mb/d as higher output from OPEC offset seasonal declines from non-OPEC. Nevertheless, non-OPEC supply was up 2…
-
Oil Market Report - January 2018
…pushed up the 2017 growth to 1.6 mb/d, while our growth estimate for 2018 remains unchanged at 1.3 mb/d.The slowdown in 2018 demand growth is mainly due to the impact of higher oil prices, changing patterns of oil use in China, recent weakness in OECD demand and the switch to natural gas in several non-OECD countries.Global oil supply in December eased by 405 kb/d to 97.7 mb/d due mostly to lower North Sea and Venezuelan output. Production was steady on a year ago as non-OPEC gains of nearly 1 mb/d offset declines in OPEC.A plunge in Venezuelan…
-
Oil Market Report - May 2017
…higher than sweet crudes.In 2Q17, global refining activity slows down seasonally, lower by 370 kb/d from 1Q17, but is set to ramp up by 2.4 mb/d by July-August. The OECD leads the way: in non-OECD areas, maintenance and refinery closures in the Middle East, underperformance in Latin America and flat growth in India are not offset by growth in China and Russia. Highlights Weakness in a number of previously solid countries - India, US, Germany and Turkey - curtailed the 1H17 global demand growth estimate by 115 kb/d. Global demand growth is, however, still forecast at 1.3 mb/d…
-
Oil Market Report - May 2023
…as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. Highlights World oil demand is forecast to rise by 2.2 mb/d year-on-year in 2023 to an average 102 mb/d, 200 kb/d above last month’s Report. China’s demand recovery continues to surpass expectations, with the country setting an all-time record in March at 16 mb/d. While the OECD is set to return to growth in 2Q23, its average 2023 increase of 350 kb/d pales in comparison with 1.9 mb/d in non-OECD gains.Significant outages in…
-
Oil Market Report - February 2022
…effective spare capacity, which could fall from 5.1 mb/d to 2.5 mb/d by year-end. A further 1.3 mb/d of Iranian crude supply could gradually be brought to market should sanctions be lifted.A reassessment of historical data has resulted in a significant upgrade to our demand estimates. While the revisions lift baseline demand – primarily for Saudi Arabia (in LPG use) and China (in the petrochemical sector) – by nearly 800 kb/d, growth rates are largely unchanged. World oil demand is set to expand by 3.2 mb/d this year, to reach 100…
