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Oil Market Report - October 2024
…and as field maintenance work in Kazakhstan and Norway lowered output. Non-OPEC+ supply growth of around 1.5 mb/d this year and next is led by the Americas, accounting for 80% of gains.Refining margins slumped further in September as gasoline, jet and diesel cracks deteriorated while crude prices improved on a relatively tighter market. As a result, global crude run estimates are further reduced by 180 kb/d to 82.8 mb/d for 2024 and by 210 kb/d to 83.4 mb/d in 2025, representing annual gains of 540 kb/d and 610 kb…
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Oil Market Report - January 2023
…2 mb/d of capacity additions between 4Q22 and end-2023.Russian oil exports fell by 200 kb/d m-o-m in December to 7.8 mb/d, as crude shipments to the EU declined after the EU crude embargo and G7 price cap came into effect. Russian diesel exports surged to a multi-year high of 1.2 mb/d, of which 720 kb/d was destined for the EU. Record discounts for Russian benchmark Urals grade saw Russian revenues slip by $3 bn m-o-m to $12.6 bn.Global observed oil inventories surged by 79…
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Oil Market Report - June 2022
…d in 2022 and 1.6 mb/d in 2023, boosting throughputs by 2.3 mb/d and 1.9 mb/d, respectively. Nevertheless, product markets are expected to remain tight, with a particular concern for diesel and kerosene supplies. While diesel cracks eased month-on-month in May, both jet fuel and gasoline cracks surged as demand picked up seasonally.Following nearly two years of declines, observed global oil inventories increased by 77 mb in April. OECD industry stocks also rose, by 42.5 mb (1.42 mb/d), helped by government stock releases of nearly 1 mb/d…
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Oil Market Report - July 2018
…Crude oil prices fell in June but since the Vienna Agreement meetings values for ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI have increased by 7% and 13%, respectively, on news of supply disruptions. In product markets, increased refinery output and signs of slowing demand put pressure on gasoline, diesel and jet fuel cracks.Global refining throughput will grow by 2 mb/d from 2Q18 to 3Q18, with more than half of the increase in the Atlantic Basin. Runs are forecast to reach 82.8 mb/d, 0.7 mb/d higher than the previous record level in 4Q17. This could result in large crude stock draws…
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Oil Market Report - September 2017
…when they normally increase. The surplus over the five-year average fell to 190 mb. OECD product stocks were only 35 mb above the five-year average at end-July and could soon fall below it because of the impact of Hurricane Harvey.Benchmark crude prices rose by $1-3/bbl in August with higher crude demand and outages in Libya. North American crudes lagged behind global benchmarks and Hurricane Harvey increased the gap in late August. Diesel and gasoline prices went higher.For 3Q17, our refinery throughput forecast is revised down by 0.7 mb/d, due to Hurricane Harvey's impact…
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Oil Market Report - August 2017
…falls in July, including the largest monthly US crude stock draw for more than three years.Benchmark crude prices rose by $1-2/bbl in July with higher crude demand from refiners and anticipated oil field maintenance. Sweet-sour spreads widened for the first time in four months. Strong demand and refinery outages in Europe boosted diesel and gasoline prices.Refining throughput is expected to reach its annual peak in August, with runs at 81.4 mb/d. 3Q17 throughput is forecast to grow 0.9 mb/d y-o-y. Global refining activity will seasonally decline in September and October, before bouncing back…
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Does security of supply drive key biofuel markets in Asia?
…and diesel demand with biofuels is a means of increasing a country’s domestic fuel supply. China produces ethanol from corn and cassava, India uses feedstocks such as molasses from its sugar industry (the world’s second-largest) to make ethanol, and Indonesia manufactures biodiesel from palm oil, of which it is the world’s largest producer. However, the production of biodiesel in China and India, and ethanol in Indonesia, is lower because of lower domestic feedstock resources.Security of supply can be strengthened through the application of mandate polices that prescribe replacing a share of gasoline or diesel consumption…
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Oil Market Report - September 2018
The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world’s most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. Highlights Global oil demand growth estimates for 2018 and 2019 are unchanged at 1.4 mb/d and 1.5 mb/d, respectively. The pace of growth slowed sharply in 2Q18, caused by weaker OECD Europe and Asia demand. US gasoline demand growth eased due to higher prices.Non-OECD demand…
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Oil Market Report - October 2018
The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world’s most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. Highlights The forecast for demand growth in 2018 and 2019 has been reduced for both years by 110 kb/d to 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively. This is due to a weaker economic outlook, trade concerns, higher oil prices and a revision to Chinese data.OECD demand…
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Oil Market Report - June 2017
The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world’s most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. Highlights Recent weaknesses in demand growth are likely to prove transitory, particularly in post currency-reform India. Although global growth was only 0.9 mb/d in 1Q17, it accelerates in 2H17 and for the year as a whole our outlook remains unchanged at 1.3 mb/d. In 2018…