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Oil Market Report - October 2024
…markets on tenterhooks about Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack. The unwinding of ultra-bearish investor exchange positioning contributed to the price rebound. Prices had slumped to multi-year lows in September, driven by the prospect of an amply supplied market in 2025. At the time of writing, Brent was trading at around $78/bbl. Oil security in focus Benchmark oil prices bounced sharply higher in early October, as potential oil supply risks once again took centre stage. Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran are fuelling fears of a broader Middle East conflict and disruptions to Iranian exports…
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Oil Market Report - August 2019
…d, respectively.Global oil supply held steady in July above 100 mb/d, but fell below year earlier levels for the first time since November 2017. Robust compliance with OPEC+ supply cuts and losses from Venezuela and Iran saw OPEC oil production fall by 2 mb/d versus July 2018. Non-OPEC supply was up 1.4 mb/d y-o-y in July and is set to grow by 1.9 mb/d in 2019 and 2.2 mb/d next year.After a year-on-year fall in 1H19, global refining throughput is expected to pick up in the second half of the year…
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Oil Market Report - January 2019
…was up 2.8 mb/d on a year ago. Following annual gains of a record 2.6 mb/d in 2018, non-OPEC production growth is set to slow to 1.6 mb/d in 2019.OPEC crude oil output dropped by 590 kb/d in December, to 32.39 mb/d. Saudi Arabia cut back from record highs while Iran and Libya saw further losses. OPEC production is set to fall further in January, when new Vienna Agreement cuts take effect.Global refining throughput is estimated to have reached a record high of 84.2 mb/d in December, causing refinery margins to fall…
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Oil Market Report - October 2018
…oil production rose by 100 kb/d in September to a one-year high of 32.78 mb/d. Since May, OPEC output has increased by 735 kb/d, led by the main Gulf producers and supported by Nigeria and Libya, offsetting falls in Iran and Venezuela.Refiners are facing increased competition as capacity additions surge between now and end-2019. After increasing by 0.9 mb/d this year, refinery runs will grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2019, while refined product demand growth is only 1 mb/d.OECD commercial stocks rose 15.7 mb in August to 2 854 mb, their highest level since February…
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Oil Market Report - May 2017
…96.17 mb/d, output stood 90 kb/d below a year ago, even as non-OPEC returned to growth. Non-OPEC supply is set to increase 600 kb/d in 2017.OPEC crude production rose by 65 kb/d in April to 31.78 mb/d as higher output from Nigeria and Saudi Arabia more than offset lower flows from Libya and Iran. Crude production was down 535 kb/d compared to April 2016. Year-to-date compliance with production cuts remained robust at 96%.OECD commercial stocks decreased for a second straight month in March, by 32.9 mb (1.1 mb/d), to 3 025 mb. Product…
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Oil Market Report - May 2019
…oil stocks fell by 25.8 mb in March to 2 849 mb, more than the five-year average of 4 mb owing to counter-seasonal crude draws. In days of forward demand, stocks amount to 59.8 days, their lowest level since July 2018.ICE Brent rose to a five-month high of $74.57/bbl in late April after the end of US waivers on Iranian exports, but has since fallen by 6%. Gasoline strengthened in April ahead of the peak demand season. Cracks for other products fell due to higher crude prices. Highlights Our 2018 oil demand growth estimate has been revised down…
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Oil Market Report - February 2022
…by 6.3 mb/d in 2022. That would erode effective spare capacity, which could fall from 5.1 mb/d to 2.5 mb/d by year-end. A further 1.3 mb/d of Iranian crude supply could gradually be brought to market should sanctions be lifted.A reassessment of historical data has resulted in a significant upgrade to our demand estimates. While the revisions lift baseline demand – primarily for Saudi Arabia (in LPG use) and China (in the petrochemical sector) – by nearly 800 kb/d, growth rates are largely unchanged. World oil demand is set to expand…
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Oil Market Report - December 2018
…and Russia. Cuts from January reduce non-OPEC production growth for 2019 by 415 kb/d, to 1.5 mb/d, compared with 2.4 mb/d in 2018.OPEC crude oil output rose 100 kb/d m-o-m to 33.03 mb/d in November as Saudi Arabia and the UAE reached record highs, more than offsetting a sharp loss from Iran. The group agreed to cut output by 0.8 mb/d from January.Global refining throughput growth came to a halt in 4Q18, with annual losses in Latin America and Europe only just offset by gains in the US, Middle East and China. Lower…
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Oil Market Report - September 2018
…US. Non-OPEC production will grow by 2 mb/d in 2018 and 1.8 mb/d in 2019.OPEC crude supply rose to a nine-month high of 32.63 mb/d in August. A rebound in Libya, near record Iraqi output and higher volumes from Nigeria and Saudi Arabia outweighed a substantial reduction in Iran and a further fall in Venezuela.From August's record rate of 83.5 mb/d, global crude runs decline due to maintenance before surging in December to another record high of 84.5 mb/d. US refining is booming with runs almost reaching 18 mb/d in August, while…
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Oil Market Report - February 2020
…lower crude holdings. Total oil stocks stood 26.4 mb above the five-year average and covered 61 days of forward demand. Preliminary data for January show inventories building in the US and Japan while falling in Europe. Short-term floating storage of crude oil built 7.7 mb in January to 76.2 mb, most of which is Iranian oil.Crude oil futures tumbled by $10/bbl during January in anticipation of a negative impact on demand from Covid-19. The price of grades from the Middle East, North Sea and West Africa, popular with Chinese refiners, fell while…
