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Oil Market Report - December 2017
…countries. Highlights Our forecast for global demand growth remains unchanged at 1.5 mb/d in 2017 (or 1.6%) and 1.3 mb/d in 2018 (or 1.3%). Revisions have been made to data for Nigeria, Germany and Iraq. The baseline for oil demand has been raised by roughly 0.2 mb/d.Global oil supply rose 0.2 mb/d in November to 97.8 mb/d, the highest in a year, on the back of rising US production. Output was nonetheless down 1.1 mb/d on a year ago when Russia and Middle East OPEC producers pumped at record rates. Non…
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Oil Market Report - June 2023
…exports, while shipments to Africa, the Middle East and Latin America made up another 12%. Estimated export revenues fell by $1.4 bn to $13.3 bn, down 36% on a year ago, with average crude prices easing from $60/bbl in April to $55/bbl in May.Global refinery throughputs are forecast to increase by 1.8 mb/d in 2023 and 1 mb/d next year when it averages 83.4 mb/d. A further decline in OECD crude runs next year is more than offset by the 1.3 mb/d increase in non-OECD activity. New…
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Oil Market Report - December 2018
…in the US, Middle East and China. Lower crude prices helped margins, although the gasoline-focused US Gulf Coast lagged behind.OECD commercial stocks rose in October for the fourth consecutive month, by 5.7 mb, to 2 872 mb. They were above the five-year average for the first time since March. NGL and feedstock inventories hit a historic high whereas fuel oil stocks fell to a record low.Having fallen by 30% since early October, oil prices stabilised with ICE Brent close to $60/bbl and NYMEX WTI at $52/bbl. Weak demand weighed on gasoline and naphtha markets. Freight rates…
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Oil Market Report - February 2018
…global refining throughput is expected to slow by 0.4 mb/d in 1Q18 to 81.1 mb/d due to seasonal maintenance, primarily in the US and Middle East. A strong rebound is expected in April-May as runs ramp up to meet increased seasonal demand and to replenish product stocks. Highlights Global oil supply in January edged lower to 97.7 mb/d but was 1.5 mb/d above last year as rebounding US production underpinned non-OPEC output growth.OPEC crude oil production in January was steady month-on-month (m-o-m) at 32.16 mb/d…
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Oil Market Report - May 2017
…cuts. Sour grades continued to trade higher than sweet crudes.In 2Q17, global refining activity slows down seasonally, lower by 370 kb/d from 1Q17, but is set to ramp up by 2.4 mb/d by July-August. The OECD leads the way: in non-OECD areas, maintenance and refinery closures in the Middle East, underperformance in Latin America and flat growth in India are not offset by growth in China and Russia. Highlights Weakness in a number of previously solid countries - India, US, Germany and Turkey - curtailed the 1H17 global demand growth estimate by 115 kb/d. Global demand growth is, however…
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Oil Market Report - April 2017
…refinery maintenance season.After 1Q17's almost flat performance vs 1Q16, refinery throughput in 2Q17 will grow 1.15 mb/d y-o-y. Refinery crude demand will surge by 3.5 mb/d between March and July, with most of the increase coming from Atlantic Basin refiners and the Middle East. Highlights Global demand growth of 1.3 mb/d is forecast for 2017, a second consecutive annual decline and slightly below our prior forecast following weaker than expected 1Q17 demand. Subdued gains in Russia and India, and weaker momentum in OECD countries, were key factors.World oil supply fell by 755 kb/d in…
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Oil Market Report - February 2022
…6 mb/d, as restrictions to contain the spread of Covid ease.The global refining industry has underperformed relative to demand for the past six quarters and this is set to continue for most of 2022. The 3.8 mb/d forecast increase in throughputs this year lags behind demand growth even as 4Q22 runs are forecast to surpass pre-pandemic levels. Further upside is capped by closures and higher energy costs affecting refinery margins.OECD industry oil stocks declined by a steep 60 mb in December, led by large draws in middle distillates across all regions. At 2 680…
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Oil Market Report - January 2017
…of refined product stocks movements shows a 4Q16 build in the OECD, with the overhang in non-OECD implied refined product inventories persisting. Highlights The global demand outlook for 2016 has been raised following the release of robust preliminary 4Q16 numbers. Colder weather in northern Europe provided impetus as did rapid industrially-driven Asian growth. Global oil demand growth for 2016 is now expected to be 1.5 mb/d, slowing to 1.3 mb/d in 2017 as product prices potentially rise.Global oil supplies fell by more than 0.6 mb/d in December, to 97.6 mb/d on lower OPEC and non-OPEC output. For 2016…
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Oil Market Report - September 2018
…of 32.63 mb/d in August. A rebound in Libya, near record Iraqi output and higher volumes from Nigeria and Saudi Arabia outweighed a substantial reduction in Iran and a further fall in Venezuela.From August's record rate of 83.5 mb/d, global crude runs decline due to maintenance before surging in December to another record high of 84.5 mb/d. US refining is booming with runs almost reaching 18 mb/d in August, while Latin American activity continues to fall.OECD commercial stocks rose 7.9 mb in July to 2 824 mb, only the fourth monthly increase in the last year…
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Oil Market Report - March 2019
…IEA countries. Highlights Global oil demand growth slowed sharply in 4Q18 to 0.95 mb/d due to lower OECD demand, which declined by 0.3 mb/d year-on-year. Large falls were seen in Europe and Asia and there was slower growth in the Americas.Our global growth estimate for 2018 and our forecast for 2019 are nevertheless unchanged, at 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively, supported by solid non-OECD growth. Data for parts of the Middle East and Asia have been revised upwards.Global oil production fell by 340 kb/d in February as OPEC and non-OPEC cuts deepened. Output…