• • Article

  • 08 Nov 2019

  Nigeria Energy Outlook

  …in the main cities, and to improved cookstoves in rural areas. Nigeria fossil fuel demand and consumption by scenario to 2040 Delayed reforms and growing competition in international oil markets means that it takes time for oil production to revive.In both scenarios, gas demand grows strongly in the industry and power sectors, leading to action to increase production and reduce gas flaring. Cumulative energy supply investment of $445 billion is needed in the STEPS, almost 80% of which goes to upstream oil and gas.The AC requires a significant ramp up in power sector investment. Spending on electricity networks…

• • Fuel report

  • Dec 2017

  Oil Market Report - December 2017

  …countries. Highlights Our forecast for global demand growth remains unchanged at 1.5 mb/d in 2017 (or 1.6%) and 1.3 mb/d in 2018 (or 1.3%). Revisions have been made to data for Nigeria, Germany and Iraq. The baseline for oil demand has been raised by roughly 0.2 mb/d.Global oil supply rose 0.2 mb/d in November to 97.8 mb/d, the highest in a year, on the back of rising US production. Output was nonetheless down 1.1 mb/d on a year ago when Russia and Middle East OPEC producers pumped at record rates. Non…

• • Fuel report

  • Feb 2018

  Oil Market Report - February 2018

  …global refining throughput is expected to slow by 0.4 mb/d in 1Q18 to 81.1 mb/d due to seasonal maintenance, primarily in the US and Middle East. A strong rebound is expected in April-May as runs ramp up to meet increased seasonal demand and to replenish product stocks. Highlights Global oil supply in January edged lower to 97.7 mb/d but was 1.5 mb/d above last year as rebounding US production underpinned non-OPEC output growth.OPEC crude oil production in January was steady month-on-month (m-o-m) at 32.16 mb/d…

• • Fuel report

  • Nov 2017

  Oil Market Report - November 2017

  …$1-2/bbl in October versus September and pushed higher in early November, buoyed by tensions in the Middle East. Oil product markets weakened relative to crude following the return of US refineries to higher throughput levels.For 4Q17, our refining throughput forecast is revised marginally lower to 80.8 mb/d, but refined product inventories are forecast to build as demand seasonally slows down. Relatively robust refining activity level continues into January and February 2018, with runs forecast to grow 1.1 mb/d y-o-y.Our analysis of global oil balances implies oversupplied crude oil markets in 4Q17 and 1Q18…

• • Fuel report

  • May 2017

  Oil Market Report - May 2017

  …cuts. Sour grades continued to trade higher than sweet crudes.In 2Q17, global refining activity slows down seasonally, lower by 370 kb/d from 1Q17, but is set to ramp up by 2.4 mb/d by July-August. The OECD leads the way: in non-OECD areas, maintenance and refinery closures in the Middle East, underperformance in Latin America and flat growth in India are not offset by growth in China and Russia. Highlights Weakness in a number of previously solid countries - India, US, Germany and Turkey - curtailed the 1H17 global demand growth estimate by 115 kb/d. Global demand growth is, however…

• • Fuel report

  • Apr 2017

  Oil Market Report - April 2017

  …refinery maintenance season.After 1Q17's almost flat performance vs 1Q16, refinery throughput in 2Q17 will grow 1.15 mb/d y-o-y. Refinery crude demand will surge by 3.5 mb/d between March and July, with most of the increase coming from Atlantic Basin refiners and the Middle East. Highlights Global demand growth of 1.3 mb/d is forecast for 2017, a second consecutive annual decline and slightly below our prior forecast following weaker than expected 1Q17 demand. Subdued gains in Russia and India, and weaker momentum in OECD countries, were key factors.World oil supply fell by 755 kb/d in…

• • Fuel report

  • Jan 2017

  Oil Market Report - January 2017

  …of refined product stocks movements shows a 4Q16 build in the OECD, with the overhang in non-OECD implied refined product inventories persisting. Highlights The global demand outlook for 2016 has been raised following the release of robust preliminary 4Q16 numbers. Colder weather in northern Europe provided impetus as did rapid industrially-driven Asian growth. Global oil demand growth for 2016 is now expected to be 1.5 mb/d, slowing to 1.3 mb/d in 2017 as product prices potentially rise.Global oil supplies fell by more than 0.6 mb/d in December, to 97.6 mb/d on lower OPEC and non-OPEC output. For 2016…

• • Fuel report

  • Sep 2018

  Oil Market Report - September 2018

  …of 32.63 mb/d in August. A rebound in Libya, near record Iraqi output and higher volumes from Nigeria and Saudi Arabia outweighed a substantial reduction in Iran and a further fall in Venezuela.From August's record rate of 83.5 mb/d, global crude runs decline due to maintenance before surging in December to another record high of 84.5 mb/d. US refining is booming with runs almost reaching 18 mb/d in August, while Latin American activity continues to fall.OECD commercial stocks rose 7.9 mb in July to 2 824 mb, only the fourth monthly increase in the last year…

• • Fuel report

  • Jun 2017

  Oil Market Report - June 2017

  …throughput growth is driven by the US and China in the East. Highlights Recent weaknesses in demand growth are likely to prove transitory, particularly in post currency-reform India. Although global growth was only 0.9 mb/d in 1Q17, it accelerates in 2H17 and for the year as a whole our outlook remains unchanged at 1.3 mb/d. In 2018, growth increases modestly to 1.4 mb/d as demand reaches a record 99.3 mb/d.Global oil supply rose by 585 kb/d in May to 96.69 mb/d as both OPEC and non-OPEC countries produced more. Output stood 1.25 mb…

• • Fuel report

  • Feb 2017

  Oil Market Report - February 2017

  …average throughput growth to 465 kb/d. 1Q17 refinery runs are forecast to grow 200 kb/d y-o-y. Highlights Supported by strong 4Q16 numbers,the estimate for global oil demand growth for 2016 was revised up for the third consecutive month to 1.6 mb/d. Although still forecast to decelerate in 2017 to 1.4 mb/d, recent improvements in industrial activity are providing support.Global oil supplies plunged nearly 1.5 mb/d in January, with both OPEC and non-OPEC countries producing less. At 96.4 mb/d, world oil production stood 730 kb/d…