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Oil Market Report - January 2023
…fall. After an increase of 2.1 mb/d in 2022, refinery throughputs are set to grow by 1.5 mb/d in 2023, helped by 2.2 mb/d of capacity additions between 4Q22 and end-2023.Russian oil exports fell by 200 kb/d m-o-m in December to 7.8 mb/d, as crude shipments to the EU declined after the EU crude embargo and G7 price cap came into effect. Russian diesel exports surged to a multi-year high of 1.2 mb/d, of which 720 kb/d was destined for the EU. Record…
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Oil Market Report - February 2022
…by 6.3 mb/d in 2022. That would erode effective spare capacity, which could fall from 5.1 mb/d to 2.5 mb/d by year-end. A further 1.3 mb/d of Iranian crude supply could gradually be brought to market should sanctions be lifted.A reassessment of historical data has resulted in a significant upgrade to our demand estimates. While the revisions lift baseline demand – primarily for Saudi Arabia (in LPG use) and China (in the petrochemical sector) – by nearly 800 kb/d, growth rates are largely unchanged. World oil demand is set to expand…
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Oil Market Report - May 2023
The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. Highlights World oil demand is forecast to rise by 2.2 mb/d year-on-year in 2023 to an average 102 mb/d, 200 kb/d above last month’s Report. China’s demand recovery continues to surpass expectations, with the country setting an all-time…
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Partner Country Series - Gas Pricing: China’s Challenges and IEA Experience
…an ambitious goal of doubling its use of natural gas from 2011 levels by 2015. Prospects as of 2012 were good for significant new supplies – both domestic and imported, conventional and unconventional – to come online in the medium term, but notable challenges remained, particularly concerning gas pricing and the institutional and regulatory landscape. While China’s circumstances are, in many respects unique, some current issues are similar to those a number of IEA countries have faced. This report highlights some key challenges for China in its transition to greater reliance on natural gas, then explores in detail relevant experiences from…
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Oil Market Report - January 2017
…Non-OPEC supplies are forecast to grow by 385 kb/d in 2017, as higher prices in the wake of an anticipated coordinated supply cut stimulate increased investment in the US. Recovering LTO production underpins a 320 kb/d gain in total US output this year.OECD industry stocks fell across crude and oil products in November, marking a fourth consecutive monthly decline. Taking into account preliminary data for December, stocks are 82 mb below July's historical peak, even if for now they remain above the symbolic 3 000 mb level.Oil prices rose in early December and stayed within a $53-57/bbl range…
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Oil Market Report - June 2022
…2017-2021 average. Preliminary data for May show total OECD stocks building by 6 mb.Despite economic headwinds, steady demand for light sweet crude in a tight physical market is boosting marker grade prices as they are in the same crude quality family. Since 6 June, WTI and Brent futures have averaged over $120/bbl. North Sea Dated hit $127.9/bbl on 13 June. Small buffers After seven consecutive quarters of hefty inventory draws, slowing demand growth and a rise in world oil supply through the end of the year should help world oil markets rebalance. This situation might…
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Oil Market Report - October 2018
…now and end-2019. After increasing by 0.9 mb/d this year, refinery runs will grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2019, while refined product demand growth is only 1 mb/d.OECD commercial stocks rose 15.7 mb in August to 2 854 mb, their highest level since February, on strong refinery output and LPG restocking. OECD inventories are likely to have risen by 43 mb (470 kb/d) in 3Q18, the largest quarterly increase in stocks since 1Q16.ICE Brent prices reached four-year highs above $85/bbl in early October. The Brent-WTI differential has widened to $9/bbl as US price increases…
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Special data release with revisions for the People's Republic of China
…balances for 2011 to 2013 and using these the IEA revised its 2011-13 data based on these newly available figures, published in this document. The revisions show significant changes both on the supply and demand side for a number of energy products, resulting in breaks in time series between 2010 and 2011. For the years 2000-10, revisions will be published in the next edition of IEA publications in summer 2016. The revised energy balances released by the NBS integrate findings from a national economic census for all years since 2000. The revised balance data solve several detailed issues…
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Oil Market Report - December 2018
…oil prices stabilised with ICE Brent close to $60/bbl and NYMEX WTI at $52/bbl. Weak demand weighed on gasoline and naphtha markets. Freight rates to transport crude and products have soared to multi-year highs. Highlights Our estimate of 2018 oil demand growth is largely unchanged at 1.3 mb/d. Non-OECD data for September and October confirm an expected slowdown due to relatively high prices, although OECD demand has been slightly revised upwards, for 4Q18.Our projection for oil demand growth in 2019 remains also unchanged, at 1.4 mb/d, as the impact of lower prices is offset by…
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Oil Market Report - June 2017
The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world’s most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. Highlights Recent weaknesses in demand growth are likely to prove transitory, particularly in post currency-reform India. Although global growth was only 0.9 mb/d in 1Q17, it accelerates in 2H17 and for the year as a whole our outlook remains unchanged at 1.3 mb/d. In 2018…