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Oil and Gas Emergency Policy: China 2012 update
…a net oil importer since 1993. More than 50% of the total crude oil imports came from counties of the Middle East. To prevent a potential shock to the economy caused by an oil supply disruption, the Chinese government has been steadily pushing to build an oil stock reserve system. China has completed four stockpiling facilities. Regarding natural gas, a strong policy push has boosted natural gas supplies, particularly to residential customers, so that its share doubled in 2009; in 2010, domestic supplies met 90% of domestic consumption. The key elements of China’s approach to gas security are to…
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Oil Market Report - December 2017
…losing almost $1/bbl. Highlights Our forecast for global demand growth remains unchanged at 1.5 mb/d in 2017 (or 1.6%) and 1.3 mb/d in 2018 (or 1.3%). Revisions have been made to data for Nigeria, Germany and Iraq. The baseline for oil demand has been raised by roughly 0.2 mb/d.Global oil supply rose 0.2 mb/d in November to 97.8 mb/d, the highest in a year, on the back of rising US production. Output was nonetheless down 1.1 mb/d on a year ago when Russia and Middle East OPEC producers pumped at…
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Oil Market Report - October 2024
…bbl. Oil security in focus Benchmark oil prices bounced sharply higher in early October, as potential oil supply risks once again took centre stage. Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran are fuelling fears of a broader Middle East conflict and disruptions to Iranian exports. Nevertheless, the resolution of a political dispute in Libya that briefly cut its oil exports in half, relatively modest production losses due to major hurricanes sweeping the US Gulf Coast and weak end-user demand have helped to steady markets. At the time of writing, Brent crude oil futures were trading at around $78/bbl, up…
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Oil Market Report - March 2017
…implied refined product stock drawdowns supporting higher throughput. Highlights Having expanded by 1.6 mb/d in 2016, global oil product demand growth is expected to ease back to 1.4 mb/d in 2017. Early indicators of 1Q17 demand support this, with slowdowns seen in January in Japan, Germany, Korea and India.Global oil supplies rose 260 kb/d in February as OPEC and non-OPEC producers pumped more. At 96.52 mb/d, world oil production stood 170 kb/d below a year ago. OPEC posted a year-on-year decline for the second month running. In 2017 non-OPEC output is set to rise…
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Oil Market Report - May 2017
…refinery closures in the Middle East, underperformance in Latin America and flat growth in India are not offset by growth in China and Russia. Highlights Weakness in a number of previously solid countries - India, US, Germany and Turkey - curtailed the 1H17 global demand growth estimate by 115 kb/d. Global demand growth is, however, still forecast at 1.3 mb/d in 2017, with demand at 97.9 mb/d.Global oil supply fell by 140 kb/d in April as non-OPEC, and especially Canada, pumped less. At 96.17 mb/d, output stood 90 kb/d below a year ago, even as non-OPEC returned…
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China's Worldwide Quest for Energy Security
…their domestic resources; but growth eventually overwhelmed them and led to rising oil imports. Within the next decade, China’s oil imports are expected to grow rapidly and outstrip those of many OECD countries. Gas imports are also projected to increase as China switches to cleaner energy. Aware of its growing dependency on imported energy, China seeks a more prominent position in the existing global system of energy production and trade. Where it can, China seeks to open new connections in global markets. Increasingly, external energy policies are entwined in foreign economic and security policies in general. This book documents…
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Oil Market Report - October 2017
…Following very strong year-on-year demand growth of 2.2 mb/d in 2Q17, the pace slowed to 1.2 mb/d in 3Q17, reflecting relatively weak July and August data and the impact of hurricanes in September. Our forecast of global demand growth remains unchanged at 1.6 mb/d in 2017 (or 1.6%) and 1.4 mb/d in 2018 (or 1.4%).Global oil supply rose 90 kb/d in September to 97.5 mb/d as non-OPEC output edged higher. Output stands 620 kb/d higher than last year. In 2017, non-OPEC supplies are expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d…
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Oil Market Report - May 2023
…oil demand is forecast to rise by 2.2 mb/d year-on-year in 2023 to an average 102 mb/d, 200 kb/d above last month’s Report. China’s demand recovery continues to surpass expectations, with the country setting an all-time record in March at 16 mb/d. While the OECD is set to return to growth in 2Q23, its average 2023 increase of 350 kb/d pales in comparison with 1.9 mb/d in non-OECD gains.Significant outages in Iraq, Nigeria and Brazil were only partly offset by increases elsewhere, with global oil…
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Oil Market Report - February 2022
…world oil output could rise by 6.3 mb/d in 2022. That would erode effective spare capacity, which could fall from 5.1 mb/d to 2.5 mb/d by year-end. A further 1.3 mb/d of Iranian crude supply could gradually be brought to market should sanctions be lifted.A reassessment of historical data has resulted in a significant upgrade to our demand estimates. While the revisions lift baseline demand – primarily for Saudi Arabia (in LPG use) and China (in the petrochemical sector) – by nearly 800 kb/d, growth rates are largely unchanged. World oil…
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Oil Market Report - June 2022
…for nearly 80% of growth next year.Non-OPEC+ is set to lead world supply growth through next year, adding 1.9 mb/d in 2022 and 1.8 mb/d in 2023. As for OPEC+, total oil output in 2023 may fall as embargoes and sanctions shut in Russian volumes and producers outside the Middle East suffer further declines. Assuming Libya rebounds from a steep drop, the bloc’s production could increase 2.6 mb/d this year, eroding its spare capacity cushion.Global refining capacity is set to expand by 1 mb/d in 2022 and 1.6…
