-
Oil Market Report - December 2017
…losing almost $1/bbl. Highlights Our forecast for global demand growth remains unchanged at 1.5 mb/d in 2017 (or 1.6%) and 1.3 mb/d in 2018 (or 1.3%). Revisions have been made to data for Nigeria, Germany and Iraq. The baseline for oil demand has been raised by roughly 0.2 mb/d.Global oil supply rose 0.2 mb/d in November to 97.8 mb/d, the highest in a year, on the back of rising US production. Output was nonetheless down 1.1 mb/d on a year ago when Russia and Middle East OPEC producers pumped at…
-
Oil Market Report - March 2017
…implied refined product stock drawdowns supporting higher throughput. Highlights Having expanded by 1.6 mb/d in 2016, global oil product demand growth is expected to ease back to 1.4 mb/d in 2017. Early indicators of 1Q17 demand support this, with slowdowns seen in January in Japan, Germany, Korea and India.Global oil supplies rose 260 kb/d in February as OPEC and non-OPEC producers pumped more. At 96.52 mb/d, world oil production stood 170 kb/d below a year ago. OPEC posted a year-on-year decline for the second month running. In 2017 non-OPEC output is set to rise…
-
Oil Market Report - May 2017
…refinery closures in the Middle East, underperformance in Latin America and flat growth in India are not offset by growth in China and Russia. Highlights Weakness in a number of previously solid countries - India, US, Germany and Turkey - curtailed the 1H17 global demand growth estimate by 115 kb/d. Global demand growth is, however, still forecast at 1.3 mb/d in 2017, with demand at 97.9 mb/d.Global oil supply fell by 140 kb/d in April as non-OPEC, and especially Canada, pumped less. At 96.17 mb/d, output stood 90 kb/d below a year ago, even as non-OPEC returned…
-
Oil Market Report - February 2022
…world oil output could rise by 6.3 mb/d in 2022. That would erode effective spare capacity, which could fall from 5.1 mb/d to 2.5 mb/d by year-end. A further 1.3 mb/d of Iranian crude supply could gradually be brought to market should sanctions be lifted.A reassessment of historical data has resulted in a significant upgrade to our demand estimates. While the revisions lift baseline demand – primarily for Saudi Arabia (in LPG use) and China (in the petrochemical sector) – by nearly 800 kb/d, growth rates are largely unchanged. World oil…
-
Oil Market Report - January 2017
…crudes. Fuel oil was a strong performer due to supply shortages.Higher estimates for 4Q16 global refinery crude throughput - up by 160 kb/d - were partly responsible for a 260 kb/d downward revision for 1Q17. Our analysis of refined product stocks movements shows a 4Q16 build in the OECD, with the overhang in non-OECD implied refined product inventories persisting. Highlights The global demand outlook for 2016 has been raised following the release of robust preliminary 4Q16 numbers. Colder weather in northern Europe provided impetus as did rapid industrially-driven Asian growth. Global oil demand growth for 2016 is now expected to be 1.5 mb/d…
-
Oil Market Report - August 2018
…unchanged at 1.4 mb/d. In 2019 growth accelerates slightly to 1.5 mb/d, but there are risks to the forecast from escalating trade disputes and rising prices if supply is constrained.Global oil supply rose by 300 kb/d in July to 99.4 mb/d, 1.1 mb/d above a year-ago. Compliance with the Vienna Agreement eased to 97% in July as output cuts were relaxed. Non-OPEC production is expected to grow by 2 mb/d in 2018 and by 1.85 mb/d next year.OPEC crude oil output was steady in July, at 32.18 mb/d. An unexpected decline in…
-
Oil Market Report - September 2018
…significant inventory builds in Japan and the US, and a fall in Europe.ICE Brent prices fell in August but recently have climbed to two-month highs near $80/bbl. Both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI futures curves are backwardated. The Brent/WTI differential has widened by $5/bbl since early August due to relatively weaker US prices. Highlights Global oil demand growth estimates for 2018 and 2019 are unchanged at 1.4 mb/d and 1.5 mb/d, respectively. The pace of growth slowed sharply in 2Q18, caused by weaker OECD Europe and Asia demand. US gasoline demand growth eased due to…
-
Oil Market Report - June 2023
…Russian crude in Asia skews activity away from the Atlantic Basin. Refinery margins were stable in May, with gains in Atlantic Basin light distillates partially offset by weaker middle distillates.Global observed oil inventories rose by 10 mb in April as a 15.9 mb decline in oil on water and a 1.1 mb drop in non-OECD stocks partly offset a 27 mb build in OECD stocks. OECD industry stocks rose by 33.6 mb but were still 86.4 mb lower than the five-year average. Preliminary May data show a further stock build in OECD countries…
-
Oil Market Report - June 2019
…higher growth in 2H19 at 1.6 mb/d.In 2020, global oil demand growth will rise to 1.4 mb/d, supported by solid non-OECD demand and petrochemicals expansion. The IMO switch will result in major changes to bunker fuel demand, sharply increasing gasoil demand from 4Q19.Non-OPEC supply growth will accelerate from 1.9 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The US leads the gains, but solid growth also comes from Brazil and Norway. In May, global oil supply eased by 0.1 mb/d to 99.5 mb/d, down 2.8 mb/d from the November peak…
-
Oil Market Report - November 2018
… Highlights The outlook for global oil demand growth is largely unchanged at 1.3 mb/d in 2018 and 1.4 mb/d in 2019, as a weaker economy is largely offset by lower oil prices. OECD demand is expected to increase by 355 kb/d in 2018, slowing to 285 kb/d in 2019.Oil demand is slowing in several non-OECD countries, as the impact of higher year-on-year prices is amplified by currency devaluations and slowing economic activity. Our non-OECD demand forecast has been revised down by 165 kb/d for 2019.Global oil supplies are growing rapidly, as record output…