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Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)

The Announced Pledges Scenario introduced this year aims to show to what extent the announced ambitions and targets, including the most recent ones, are on the path to deliver emissions reductions required to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. It includes all recent major national announcements of 2030 targets and longer term net zero and other pledges, regardless of whether these have been anchored in implementing legislation or in updated NDCs. In the APS, countries fully implement their national targets to 2030 and 2050, and the outlook for exporters of fossil fuels and low emissions fuels like hydrogen is shaped by what full implementation means for global demand.

The way these pledges are assumed to be implemented in the APS has important implications for the energy system. A net zero pledge for all GHG emissions does not necessarily mean that CO2 emissions from the energy sector need to reach net zero. For example, a country’s net zero plans may envisage some remaining energy-related emissions are offset by the absorption of emissions from forestry or land use. It is not possible to know exactly how net zero pledges will be implemented, but the design of the APS, particularly with respect to the details of the energy system pathway, has been informed by the pathways that a number of national bodies have developed to support net zero pledges . Policies in countries that have not yet made a net zero pledge are assumed to be the same as in the STEPS. Non-policy assumptions, including population and economic growth, are the same as in the STEPS.