Based on today’s policies, investment and market trends, only three African countries are set to reach universal clean cooking access by mid-century. Sub-Saharan Africa could achieve universal coverage by 2040, if countries were to replicate the best historical rates of progress seen in similar countries around the world – a pathway explored in the new Accelerating Clean Cooking and Electricity Services Scenario (ACCESS). It will require 80 million people to gain access annually, or a 4.7 percentage point improvement in access rates each year, comparable to rates of progress seen in Indonesia, Cambodia and Viet Nam.

By 2035 in the ACCESS, nearly all households move away from cooking methods posing the most acute risks to human health, with almost 95% of urban households already having clean cooking access by that point. Southern Africa reaches universal access to clean cooking earlier than other regions, given current levels and policies, followed by West, East and then Central Africa.

The ACCESS uses new geospatial analysis to assess the availability and affordability of all cooking solutions and the likely adoption pathway while optimising for more convenient, higher performing stoves. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) accounts for 61% of new clean cooking access by 2040, followed by electricity at 17%, modern biomass, bioethanol, and biogas together making up the remainder. Natural gas only plays a role in a few dense urban areas in gas-producing countries.

The consumption of modern cooking fuels grows sixfold by 2040 in the ACCESS. This implies a fivefold increase in LPG and electricity consumption for cooking over today’s levels, and ten-fold for modern bioenergy, albeit from a low starting point. These increases are meaningful for African and international markets in the long-term. Sub‑Saharan Africa’s LPG demand for cooking in 2040 is equal to 8% of today’s global LPG market – around 940 kbd. Bioethanol demand would be 6% of today’s global market. Electricity for cooking increases sub-Saharan Africa’s electricity demand by 65 TWh by 2040 – 15% of the region’s current total electricity generation.

Achieving universal clean cooking access in Africa requires USD 37 billion worth of investment from now through to 2040 – more than USD 2 billion annually. But the benefits of universal access to clean cooking are immense. By 2040, the cumulative premature deaths averted in sub-Saharan Africa by pursuing the ACCESS instead of today’s trajectory reaches 4.7 million. The average household more than halves the amount of time they spend gathering fuels, making and tending to fires and cooking each day. On net, Africa’s annual greenhouse gas emissions fall by 540 Mt CO₂-eq – roughly equal to the emissions of international aviation. The total forest area spared from deforestation is equivalent to the size of Ecuador.