Achieving Southeast Asia’s announced energy and climate pledges would bring forward a structural shift in the region’s energy system. In the Announced Pledges Scenario, total energy demand grows by around 2% per year to 2035, as stronger efficiency gains and electrification weaken the link between economic growth and energy consumption. Clean energy meets most incremental demand growth, raising its share in the energy mix to around 30% by 2035.

Fossil fuel demand peaks before 2035 across all major fuels in the APS, in contrast to continued growth under today’s policy settings. Coal demand peaks around 390 Mtce by 2030 and declines to 140 Mtce by 2050, driven mainly by reduced coal-fired power generation and faster renewables deployment. Oil demand peaks in the early 2030s and falls to around 3.9 mb/d by 2050 as transport electrification and efficiency gains accelerate. Natural gas demand peaks at around 205 bcm around 2030 before declining to about 110 bcm by 2050, as low-emissions alternatives expand across power, industry and end uses.

Rapid electrification reshapes final energy consumption and reduces import exposure. Total final consumption reaches 26 EJ by 2035 in the APS, compared with 28 EJ in the STEPS, as stronger efficiency and electrification curb demand growth. By 2050, fossil fuel demand in end-use sectors falls to around 10 EJ, or less than 40% of total final consumption, compared with more than 19 EJ in the STEPS. This lowers imported fossil fuel needs by 4 EJ in 2050 relative to the STEPS and reduces the fossil fuel import bill by USD 160 billion, strengthening energy security while lowering emissions.

End-use sectors change at different speeds, but all contribute to lower fossil fuel dependence. Industry remains the largest source of final energy demand growth, rising by 40% to 13 EJ by 2050, while electricity demand more than doubles as non-energy-intensive industries expand and electrify. In energy-intensive industries, electrification exceeds 20% by 2050, helping reduce coal demand by around 30%. In transport, energy demand is only around 5% higher in 2050 than today despite much larger vehicle fleets, as electric vehicles, rail and biofuels expand. EVs and biofuels displace around 3 mboe/d of oil demand by 2050, equivalent to Southeast Asia’s current crude oil imports. In buildings, electricity’s share rises from 55% today to 85% by 2050 as appliances, cooling, cooking and water heating electrify.

Electricity becomes the backbone of the APS energy system. Electricity demand rises by around 70% by 2035 and triples by 2050, reaching around 4 000 TWh per year. Electricity’s share in final consumption increases from about one-quarter today to nearly half by mid-century, compared with one-third in the STEPS. Buildings, industry and transport all contribute to growth: by 2050, electricity demand increases by nearly 900 TWh in industry and 400 TWh in transport. Peak demand grows even faster than overall electricity demand, especially because of cooling, making digitalisation, smart grids, demand response, energy management systems and efficient appliances central to electricity security.

Low-emissions sources dominate electricity generation in the APS, requiring a major scale-up of renewables, grids and flexibility. Electricity generation rises from around 1 460 TWh in 2024 to about 2 450 TWh in 2035 and nearly 4 600 TWh by 2050. Low-emissions sources increase from around one-quarter of generation today to just over half in 2035 and around 90% in 2050. Solar PV rises from 44 TWh in 2024 to more than 450 TWh in 2035 and nearly 1 750 TWh in 2050, while wind grows from 18 TWh to over 270 TWh in 2035 and more than 1 080 TWh by mid-century. Battery storage expands from just over 1 GW today to more than 60 GW in 2035 and over 300 GW in 2050, while transmission and distribution capacity expands more than two-and-a-half-fold by 2050.

Efficiency gains are essential to make the APS achievable. Southeast Asia’s energy intensity improved by only 0.1% per year between 2015 and 2024, far below the global average of 1.4%. In the APS, energy intensity improvement accelerates to around 2% per year by 2030, around 35% faster than in the STEPS. This helps contain overall energy demand growth to 7 EJ by 2035 and 13 EJ by 2050. The main gains come from industrial heat electrification, more efficient motors, improved truck performance, stronger building codes, tighter minimum energy performance standards for air conditioners and wider deployment of smart meters and energy management systems.

Low-emissions fuels and technologies complement electrification where direct electricity use is difficult or where firm low-emissions supply is valuable. Southeast Asia produced 4 Mt of hydrogen in 2024, nearly all from fossil fuels. In the APS, hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels expand into shipping, power, aviation and industry; shipping accounts for nearly 40% of total demand by 2035, while power sector demand exceeds 6.5 Mt by 2050, supported by ammonia co-firing. Hydrogen production reaches 16 Mt by 2050, three-quarters of it low-emissions, compared with 7 Mt in the STEPS, of which only 4% is low-emissions. Modern bioenergy, CCUS and geothermal also play larger roles: CCUS reaches more than 150 Mt of CO2 captured by 2050, while geothermal output exceeds 200 TWh. Across these technologies, clearer regulation, demand creation, de-risking instruments and regional co-operation are critical to improving bankability.