Jet fuel demand accounts for around 7% of global oil demand. Jet fuel markets look to be particularly vulnerable to an extended loss of Middle East production and exports, given limited flexibility elsewhere to increase output.

Description: Travel for work accounts for a large share (between 20% and 40%) of aviation activity. In many cases, travel for work can be temporarily substituted by virtual meetings. A reduction of around 40% of flights taken for work purposes is feasible in the short term, while maintaining productivity.

Impact: Very high voluntary participation to work-related flight reduction campaigns could yield reductions in jet kerosene demand by between 7% and 15%.

How governments can enable this: Governments can launch campaigns to encourage companies to limit air travel for work whenever possible. Governments lead by example by limiting air travel for public officials and encouraging more meetings to take place virtually.

Policy examples: In response to the 2026 crisis in the Middle East, several governments have limited travel for work by public officials. For example, Thailand has suspended overseas trips for government agencies and state enterprises, while Egypt, Pakistan and Viet Nam have all announced measures to limit public official travel.