National Climate Resilience Assessment for Kenya

Climate and geography

Situated in the east of the African continent, Kenya holds a diverse topography that creates significant climatic variation distinguishable via three zones: Kenya’s northern and northeastern lowland zones provide arid and semi‑arid climate all year with an annual precipitation less than 250 millimetres (mm) on average. Its central highlands are agriculturally rich with a temperate climate and over 2 000 mm of rainfall per year. The 1 420 kilometre (km) long coastline with the Indian Ocean has a typically tropical climate, hotter and more humid than the western and northern regions. Kenya is heavily affected by seasonal precipitation. Kenya’s “long rains" season takes place from March through May, followed by a drier period for most of the country and a “short rains” season between October and December. Kenya’s temperatures show little seasonal variation across the different zones, with average temperatures ranging between 18 °C at the higher elevations to 26 °C along the coast. Due to the East African Rift running through Kenya’s western regions, the country is exposed to a moderate earthquake risk. The greatest hazard areas with magnitudes of 5‑6 are in the northwest and along the southern border with Tanzania. Kenya’s coast hosts Mombasa as the largest port as a central link between the Indian Ocean and the East African hinterlands. Most of Kenya’s population lives in urban centres stretching from the Port of Mombasa across Nairobi, the country’s capital in the centre, to Western Kisumu located next to Lake Victoria.

Energy sector

While 78% of Kenya’s domestic energy production in 2024 still relied on bioenergy – primarily consumed in the residential sector – the country is making progress in its clean energy transition. Kenya increased its electricity access rate from 30% in 2010 to more than 75% since 2023. Its Last Mile Connectivity Project (LMCP), launched in 2015, increased the number of people with access to electricity in rural areas from less than 15 million to around 27 million in 2024. Kenya further is making important steps in transitioning to clean cooking fuels. Between 2014 and 2024, it increased its access rate to clean cooking from only 11% to 34% by scaling up liquefied petroleum gas, electricity and bioethanol use. Kenya released in 2024 the Kenya National Cooking Transition Strategy (KNCTS), laying out pathways to reach universal access by 2028. Over 80% of urban households rely on charcoal for cooking, driving deforestation despite a logging ban in 2017. The ban was lifted in July 2023 in favour of rules for responsible forest management, and in March 2025 the government proposed legislation that mandates licensing for all charcoal producers. So far illegal logging continues, and charcoal use remains high as alternatives remain largely unaffordable for many households.

In parallel, Kenya’s electricity mix has diversified significantly over the last decade and in 2024, the country generated 91% of its electricity from renewable sources, with 43% sourced from geothermal plants in the Rift Valley. The country is the world’s sixth-largest geothermal producer with an estimated potential capacity of 10 gigawatts (GW). In March 2026, Kenya commissioned an additional 35 megawatts (MW), and two other projects – the third 35 MW power plant of the Menengai Geothermal Project in the Rift Valley and the 300 MW Baringo-Silali-Paka project – are planned to be fully operational by mid‑2026 and 2028, respectively. In 2024, 28% of Kenya’s electricity stemmed from its 16 hydropower plants with a total installed capacity of 826 MW. Kenya’s Ministry of Energy fosters the continuous development of small run-of-the-river plants that help to increase electricity access, for example through its National Small Hydro Resource Atlas. The country also operates one of the largest wind farms in Africa – the Lake Turkana Wind Power project with a capacity of 310 MW. Kenya had deployed 369 MW of solar by the end of 2024 and is leading the way in demonstrating how government support can unlock hard-to-reach and low-affordability customers by providing targeted local currency financing and results-based incentives through its Off-Grid Solar Access Project (KOSAP). Further, Kenya announced plans for the construction of a 1 GW nuclear power plant in Siaya County in eastern Kenya starting in 2027.

Temperature

Kenya has experienced less mean temperature rise than the global average. Mean temperatures in Kenya have increased since the early 1960s, accelerating in recent decades. to reach a rate of 0.27 °C per decade over the 2000‑2024 period. The levels of warming varied throughout the country: Mombasa in the southeast on the coast observed a 0.17 °C per decade increase since 1960, while Lodwar in the northwest observed a 0.37 °C decadal rate of warming.

Temperature increases pushed up cooling needs more strongly than they decreased heating requirements. Cooling degree days (CDDs) in Kenya have increased at a rate of 142 CDDs per decade over the 2000‑2024 period. In 2024, Kenya experienced 793 CDDs, a 76% increase since 2000. Heating degree days (HDDs) decreased over the same period, at a rate of 8 HDDs per decade.

Kenya is projected to warm significantly, particularly under a high-emissions climate change scenario. In a scenario where global warming remains below 2 °C (Below 2 °C), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that land surface temperature in Kenya will be 1.87 °C higher by the end of the century compared with pre‑industrial levels.1 In a scenario where global warming exceeds 3 °C (Above 3 °C) by the end of the century, the IPCC projects that land surface temperature in Kenya warms by 3.90 °C by the end of the century. In this scenario, all of Kenya’s counties would experience a temperature rise of at least 3.5 °C. In 15 of 47 counties, particularly those in the north and west of the country, the increase may exceed 4 °C.

Kenya also faces an increased risk of heatwaves. In a low-emissions scenario (Below 2 °C), Kenya is projected to experience an average of 27 additional days with a maximum temperature above 35 °C by the end of the century compared with the period 1995‑2014. Under a high-emissions scenario (Above 3 °C), this increase reaches 92 additional days. Some of Kenya’s regions could even experience a strong increase in extremely hot days (with maximum temperatures above 40 °C). Three counties in the north and east (Garissa, Marsabit and Turkana) could experience an additional 12 or more extremely hot days by 2100 compared with 1995‑2014. In Wajir County in the northeast, this increase may reach 37 days.

Kenya faces the dual challenge of expanding electricity access while preparing for rising temperatures that increase for the population’s cooling requirements. Kenya’s electricity consumption per capita of 0.19 megawatt-hours (MWh) remained well below Africa’s average of 0.617 MWh in 2023, though it had increased by 74% since 2000. In 2023, around 9.6 million people suffered from a lack of cooling due to poverty, substandard housing and lack of electricity access. Kenya is expected to reach universal electricity access before 2035 and International Energy Agency (IEA) analysis estimates electricity consumption to quadruple in the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)2 by 2040. The higher electricity consumption is in part driven by increased ownership of cooling appliances such as air conditioning.

Rising temperatures can also affect Kenya's electricity supply. In March 2024, high temperatures in northeast Mandera County caused the overheating and failure of diesel generators, leaving the local population without electricity for cooling needs. Overall, extreme heat reduces the transmission capacity of electricity networks, leading to higher losses and creating a risk of short circuits when sagging into vegetation. In a global warming pathway of Above 3 °C, 70% of Kenya’s existing grid could be exposed to at least 20 additional days with a maximum temperature above 35°C, and 20% could be exposed to more than 100 additional days by the end of the century. The projected upsurge in extreme heat events may disrupt power supply, posing additional challenges to the insufficient grid infrastructure. These combined impacts of higher temperatures and increased demand are expected to become more severe. To minimise the negative impacts of extreme temperatures on electricity grids, while meeting increasing electricity demand for cooling, the adoption of energy efficiency solutions for cooling devices and buildings are key for building climate resilience.

Extreme temperatures adversely impact electricity generation technologies by lowering their operational performance. High temperatures can reduce the output of solar power generation. With panel temperature exceeding 25 °C, efficiency typically declines by 0.3‑0.5% per degree, depending on plant design and materials used. Heat can also have adverse effects on the life span of battery cells and other electronic components that accompany solar panels. KOSAP is a cornerstone in the country’s ambition to reach universal electricity access by 2030, and according to the country’s energy plans, its solar capacity is planned to nearly double by 2028. In the Above 3 °C scenario, nearly 90% of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity would be exposed to more than 20 additional days with a maximum temperature above 35 °C by 2100, and 15% of solar PV capacity could be exposed to more than 100 additional days. Under limited global warming, less additional investment in solar PV capacity is required to achieve universal electricity access.   

Wind power plants typically remain resilient to temperatures up to 40 °C but higher temperatures imply lower operational performance. Extreme heat can require temporary safety shutdowns at around 45 °C to prevent damage caused by overheating when air circulation systems cannot sufficiently cool the electromechanical system. Kenya considered this risk in the environmental impact assessment for its 310 MW Lake Turkana Wind Power project, noting the need to select a turbine that can withstand high temperatures.

In the Above 3 °C scenario, nearly 75% of Kenya’s existing and planned wind power capacity is projected to experience an increase of 20‑40 days with a maximum temperature above 40 °C by 2100 compared with pre‑industrial levels. In a low-emissions scenario, none of the capacity would see a significant increase in extreme heat days.

Geothermal power plants are sensitive to high ambient air temperature and its fluctuations. Geothermal plants operating with air-cooled condensers, such as Kenya’s Olkaria III, can face output losses of up to 50% in temperatures above 30 °C. Nakuru County, which hosts all of Kenya’s operational geothermal power plants, did not experience temperatures over 30 °C between 1951 and 2020. However, climate projections indicate that Nakuru could face up to 15 days of temperatures above 30 °C per year. Opting for water-based cooling systems in new plants as implemented in other Olkaria stations can limit adverse temperature impacts.  

Precipitation

Severe droughts and episodic intense floods are characteristic of the Horn of Africa. Kenya is particularly vulnerable to such events due to its strong dependence on rain-fed agriculture. Flood and drought risk is projected to increase, and the government estimates that floods will cost Kenya about 5.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) every five years and droughts around 8% of GDP every five years. For Kenya’s clean energy transition, a careful selection of sites for new energy assets is critical.

In both the Below 2 °C and Above 3 °C scenarios, Kenya’s annual precipitation is projected to increase. The rate of this change varies by county, ranging from an increase of 6.9-15.4% by the end of the century compared with pre‑industrial levels in the Below 2 °C scenario. In the Above 3 °C scenario, these increases range from 10.9-42.2%. The smallest precipitation increases are projected in the southeast (Mombasa and Kwale), and the largest increases are projected in the northern counties, Marsabit and Samburu.

Kenya’s maximum one-day precipitation is projected to increase by 18% in a Below 2 °C scenario and by 28% in an Above 3 °C scenario by the end of the century. Maximum one-day precipitation captures changes in short, extreme downpours that can overwhelm rivers and soils – a signal of flash and river flood risk. As a result, terrain classified as a floodplain in these areas is likely to widen and experience higher water levels for a given return period.

At the same time, the maximum number of consecutive dry days is projected to increase across Kenya. The three most populous counties – Nairobi, Kiambu and Nakuru – will see an increase of at least eight to ten days in consecutive dry days by the end of the century in both scenarios assessed. A lengthening of rain-free spells directly increases drought risk and indirectly furthers the risk for flash floods by reducing the soil’s ability to quickly absorb water when rain occurs.

Floods are a significant risk to Kenya’s infrastructure and reliable electricity supply. In the past years, riverine and flash floods resulting from heavy rainfall frequently caused substantial damage to electricity networks, submerging substations and collapsing transmission pylons and lines. For instance, floods in May 2024 led to nationwide power outages, lasting two weeks in parts of the country. The country’s utility, Kenya Power and Lighting Company (KPLC), decided to relocate transmission lines around Lake Nakuru. In addition, floods render roads impassable, leading to power outages due to fuel shortages in northeastern counties where electricity supply still strongly relies on diesel generators. For example, 19 000 consumers in Mandera experienced power cuts in March 2023.

Kenya’s existing electricity grid is projected to be exposed to an increase in heavy rainfall unless global warming is contained below 2 °C. In the Above 3 °C scenario, 95% of Kenya’s existing electricity grid is projected to be exposed to an increase in one-day maximum precipitation of 10‑20% by mid‑century, and 75% of grids could face an increase of at least 40% by the end of the century. In contrast, in the Below 2 °C scenario, grids do not face a substantial increase in heavy rainfall until mid‑century, and only 30% of the grid is projected to be exposed to an increase of 20‑30% of one-day maximum precipitation.

Kenya’s hydropower plants face a high seasonal variability in rainfall, resulting in water scarcity for some plants during the dry periods. For instance, in February 2023, hydropower generation dropped by 64% compared with the previous month and hit a record low due to a prolonged drought. Although power rationing was avoided due to additional electricity import from Ethiopia, power prices increased. In the future, both annual mean precipitation and seasonal variability in rainfall are projected to increase. The hydropower potential of Kenya’s operating plants is projected to see a fluctuation due to the high variability in streamflow, which results from changing precipitation and temperature patterns. All scenarios assessed project a decrease of around 10% in hydropower potential between today and mid‑century, compared with 1971‑2010, followed by a recovery by the end of the century.

Most of Kenya’s geothermal power plants operate with wet cooling towers. This reduces plants’ sensitivity to temperature fluctuations but makes them dependent on water availability. This operational constraint is actively managed and so far, geothermal plants contributed to stabilising electricity generation during droughts. In early 2023, plants increased outputs by 46% to compensate for reductions in hydroelectricity. Ensuring cooling water supply in the future requires optimal management of competing uses of resources.

Four Olkaria-based plants, accounting for nearly half of Kenya’s geothermal capacity, rely on Lake Naivasha, Nakuru County, for cooling water. Environmental impact assessments conclude that the increasing rate of abstraction is likely to lower the lake’s water levels in the long term and recommends plant operators to develop contingency plans for alternative water sources and collaborate with the lake management committee to optimise water abstraction. At the end of the century, Nakuru county is projected to be exposed to 16 consecutive dry days per year, slightly fewer than the 2000‑2014 average, indicating a similar water availability compared with today.

Solar PV installations are highly vulnerable to floods as water ingress can damage the electrical equipment, cause corrosion, and destabilise mounting structures which increases post-event failure rates. Increased runoff from paved grounds and solar panels during heavy rain can contribute to the site flooding. A thorough site selection and tailored drainage systems are key. For instance, the environmental impact assessment study for the Malindi solar power plant discusses current flood risk, and project developers contracted an independent flood risk assessment. The assessment concludes that river and coastal flooding is not a risk, but surface water floods need to be considered in the construction design as the site faces an average annual rainfall of 750 mm to 900 mm with a recorded maximum daily precipitation of 255 mm.  Apart from two floating solar PV projects, Rift Valley Roses and the Kamburu Dam, none of Kenya’s installations is located in today’s 1-in-500-year floodplains. However, in the Above 3 °C scenario, sites with 60% of existing capacity are projected to face an increase of up to 50% in one-day maximum precipitation by the end of the century. In the Below 2 °C scenario, the increase in heavy downpours is limited: only 20% of existing solar PV capacity faces an increase of up to 30% in one-day maximum precipitation.

Kenya is advancing plans for the construction of its first nuclear power plant. Kenya’s Nuclear Power and Energy Agency (NuPEA) conducted a strategic environmental and social assessment (SESA) for its nuclear power programme in 2023, followed by an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Integrated Nuclear Infrastructure Review for Research Reactors. On NuPEA’s invitation, the Netherlands Commission for Environmental Assessment reviewed the SESA and concluded that the report lacks assessments on effects of climate change and key natural hazard risks while acknowledging that not all national studies for the site selection were included. In June 2025, Kenya announced plans to start construction in 2027 in Siaya, close to Lake Victoria, as it ranked highest in geological stability compared with other sites surveyed. NuPEA plans to conduct engineering studies and environmental impact assessments for the final two candidate sites within Siaya over the next two years.

Sea level rise and storm surges

Although most of Kenya’s energy infrastructure is well above sea level, some cities are exposed to risks of storm surges, coastal flooding and erosion, exacerbated by sea level rise. The sea level at Kenya’s coastline increased at a rate of 3.44 centimetres (cm) per decade from 1993 to 2025. In the Below 2 °C scenario, the sea level is projected to rise by 21 cm by mid‑century and by 48 cm by the end of the century compared with 1995‑2014 levels. The Above 3 °C scenario projects 24 cm of sea level rise by mid‑century and up to 75 cm by the end of the century. Mombasa’s port is considered to be particularly vulnerable. In recent years, heavy rainfall repeatedly inundated container yards, roads and storage areas, causing major operational delays. National policy documents estimate that 30 cm of sea level rise could submerge 4 km2 to 6 km2 of the city. Around Mombasa’s coast, the Above 3 °C scenario projects a sea level rise of 31 cm by 2060 compared with 1995‑2014 levels, while in the Below 2 °C scenario this rise would only be reached by 2070. Projections further show that rainfall will intensify under high-emissions scenarios, amplifying future flood risks. Recognising these growing vulnerabilities, the port operator, Kenya Ports Authority, adopted a Green Port Policy (2024‑2028) to embed climate resilience measures into port operations and management, including eco‑terracing and mangrove restoration.

Kenya does not typically experience tropical cyclones, but there is precedent. In May 2024, Cyclone Hidaya was the first cyclone to hit Kenya’s coast and in the same year, Cyclone Laly caused destruction with uprooted trees contributing to power outages that led to water supply disruptions. The World Meteorological Organization argued that the positive El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole phase in 2023 played significant roles in the extreme weather patterns observed in 2024.

Landslides and wildfire

Wildfires and landslides also affect Kenya’s energy sector. Long rain seasons and heavy rainfall can trigger landslides in mountainous terrain with steep slopes and unstable, sparsely vegetated soil, particularly in combination with seismic activities. Kenya’s western provinces with the Rift Valley Escarpment and Mount Elgon are particularly exposed. Landslides regularly damage Kenya’s infrastructure, including energy assets: in November 2025 a landslide in Chesongoch destroyed power lines, causing local electricity outages for multiple days. As climate projections show an increasingly wetter climate, in the landslide-prone eastern provinces, infrastructure exposure to this hazard may increase.

Kenya is exposed to wildfire risk, and past droughts exacerbated fire damages. Projected increases in consecutive dry days in vegetated areas can further heighten wildfire risk. Among infrastructure assets, electricity networks are particularly vulnerable to wildfires. In dry seasons, sparks from electricity lines can start wildfires in their vicinity, posing a direct threat to secure electricity supply. Fire can damage towers and deposit soot on insulators, which can cause further line sparking or even short circuits, and lead to unplanned power outages. IEA analysis shows that wildfire risk to Kenya’s grids is moderate. Around 30% of Kenya’s national electricity grid is built in areas that are expected to experience a wildfire every two to ten years on average, and the remaining 70% of the network can expect wildfires less than every ten years.

As Kenya’s local communities rely heavily on solid biomass and domestically produced charcoal for cooking, fuelwood is an important energy source. Wildfires are typically triggered by a combination of human activities and natural factors, and charcoal production is a common cause across African countries. For instance, in 2025, charcoal production caused a wildfire in Namibia, burning 30% of the Etosha National Park. According to a study, most Zambian producers confirm the occasional triggering of wildfires.

Kenya has incorporated climate resilience in its climate and energy policy framework and has built a solid institutional and regulatory foundation to successfully achieve short- and long-term objectives. The regularly updated National Climate Change Action Plans (NCCAPs) and mandatory environmental impact assessments for major infrastructure projects are key tools to implement required measures. Through the National Framework for Climate Services, Kenya is enhancing its monitoring framework, closing an important gap in publicly available data. In a next step, the country can prioritise establishing a robust framework to track progress of its resilience objectives.

By adopting the National Climate Change Framework Policy and the Climate Change Act in 2016, Kenya laid the foundations for strengthening climate resilience in the energy sector. The framework policy recognises the need to counteract adverse climate impacts on electricity generation and sets the direction for mainstreaming climate resilience and adaptive capacity across sectors and levels of government, while the Climate Change Act provides the legal backbone. The act establishes the National Climate Change Council, the Climate Change Directorate and the Climate Change Fund to implement, co‑ordinate and finance climate resilience and adaptive capacity. It requires the council to prepare an NCCAP every five years that shall prescribe measures for climate change adaptation, mitigation and disaster risk reduction and estimate their budget, specifically to promote energy conservation, efficiency and renewable deployment. The act further requires the National Environmental Management Authority (NEMA) to integrate climate risk and vulnerability studies into all forms of assessments, required for the development of major energy projects.

The NCCAPs are Kenya’s primary domestic delivery mechanism for implementing the country’s second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) (2025), translating its international mitigation and adaptation pledges into time-bound, sector-specific actions, budgets and implementation responsibilities. Kenya’s second NDC commits to strengthen the resilience of energy systems and to climate-proof strategic energy infrastructure using vulnerability assessments, including drought- and flood-related risks, early warning, preparedness, and response measures alongside diversifying the electricity mix.

In 2023, Kenya released its NCCAP III 2023-2027. The plan sets out concrete objectives and budgets for energy and transport, as one of eight priority areas. It identifies reduced water availability for hydropower, decline of forest productivity, increased electricity demand for air conditioning due to extreme temperatures, and damage to electricity networks and port, road and rail infrastructure due to floods and landslides as key climate risks. The primary objective is to ensure affordable and reliable electricity through a low-carbon and climate-resilient energy system, promoting energy efficiency and encouraging the transition to clean cooking. By 2028, 589 MW of geothermal, wind and solar will be developed, 2.3 million additional customers connected to electricity grids, and 75% of the population encouraged to adopt modern cooking fuels. To strengthen climate resilience in energy infrastructure, the plan stipulates the goal that 50% of new distribution grid poles should be concrete or eco‑poles, 2 500 hectares of water catchment areas should be conserved and rehabilitated by protecting the areas feeding hydropower reservoirs, existing hydropower plants should be optimised, and water management and conservation improved. The Masinga Dam will be raised to enhance storage capacity after conducting an environmental social impact assessment and detailed feasibility study and designs. NEMA oversees strategic environmental assessments (SEAs) for policies and programmes, integrating climate risk considerations at the strategic planning stage to guide resilient development decisions. It also administers and licenses environmental impact assessments for individual projects, ensuring that potential climate risks are identified, mitigated and managed before project approval. Projects that require an environmental impact assessment before construction include electrical infrastructure, dams, mining, processing and manufacturing, and major transport infrastructure.

Several other policies stipulate and implement actions to enhance climate resilience in the energy sector. Kenya’s 2015‑2030 National Adaptation Plan strengthens the country’s agenda for mainstreaming climate resilience and estimates the cost of energy sector adaptation to be around USD 3.5 billion. The Fourth Medium Term Plan 2023‑2027, part of Kenya's long-term Vision 2030 agenda, outlines measures to strengthen resilience against drought risks, including implementing the National Integrated Drought Early Warning System. In 2023, Kenya developed a National Framework for Climate Services that expands the amount of publicly available climate and weather information, including national weather outlooks; solar radiation, wind and rain forecasts; and severe weather warnings. In addition to long-term outlooks, the framework will help produce seasonal, monthly, weekly and daily forecasts.

Kenya’s Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry and Ministry of Energy and Petroleum developed strategic plans that are relevant to the climate resilience of the country’s energy system. The Environment, Climate Change and Forestry Strategic Plan 2023‑2027 and the Energy and Petroleum Strategic Plan 2023‑2027 list co‑ordinating national action, capacity building and awareness raising on climate change adaptation and mitigation as a key priority. They highlight the need to halt deforestation and promote renewable energy sources and electricity access to strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards.

Kenya’s National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy (2020) seeks to curb energy demand growth, which can help make Kenya’s energy system more resilient overall. It establishes sectoral goals for energy efficiency, including increasing minimum performance standards, scaling up energy audits in industry, expanding public transportation access, reducing transmission and distribution system losses, and improving grid stability.