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Methodological note

This release is based on data for the first quarter of 2021 (Q1) from numerous sources, using data available as of mid-April 2021. Data are available for around two-thirds of global primary energy demand.

In general, the data collected include the latest monthly IEA country data submissions through end-February and end-March when available; other statistical releases from national administrations around the world; and IEA estimates where official data are missing.

Oil demand data by country issue from the recent market data compiled for the latest monthly IEA Oil Market Report, published on 14 April 2021.

Gas demand data have been collected for around two-thirds of global gas demand. Data include information from the EIA for the United States, transmission system operators in Europe, CQPGX for China, PPAC for India, KOGAS for Korea and LNG import data as a proxy for gas demand in several additional countries.

Coal demand data are derived principally from coal-fired electricity generation information, with available data covering around two-third of global coal demand.

Data collected for renewable energy production in 2020 and Q1 2021 were combined with renewable energy capacity additions in over 100 countries.

Daily, weekly and monthly electricity demand and generation data were compiled from several sources, such as the United States EIA hourly data, ENTSO-E hourly data for Europe, latest monthly submission for OECD countries, National Load Dispatch Centre daily data for India, as well as China and Brazil. Collected electricity demand and generation data cover around three-quarters of global electricity demand.

As a result of possible differences in data collection methodologies and data definitions, real-time and daily data may not match the methodologies used for monthly, quarterly or annual data.

The impact of the pandemic on sectoral and economy-wide activity was assessed based on quarterly and annual data from Oxford Economics (2021) for countries available (a combined share of more than 85% of global GDP for quarterly data and 95% for annual data). These were complemented by annual data from the World Economic Outlook Database.

CO2 emissions include emissions from all uses of fossil fuels for energy purposes. CO2 emissions do not include emissions from industrial processes, industrial waste and non-renewable municipal waste. CO2 emissions from international marine and aviation bunkers are included at the world level only.

Acknowledgements

This study was prepared by the Energy Demand Outlook team in the Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks (STO) in co-operation with other directorates and offices of the International Energy Agency. The study was designed and directed by Laura Cozzi, Chief Energy Modeller and Head of Division for Energy Demand Outlook.

Musa Erdogan led on data management and analysis, Timothy Goodson led on analysis and was lead author.

Key contributions from across the IEA were from Yasmine Arsalane (lead economic outlook), Heymi Bahar (lead renewables), Christophe Barret (lead oil), Paulina Becerra Zavala (co-lead electricity), Joel Couse (macroeconomics), Trevor Criswell (renewables), Amrita Dasgupta (India), Mathilde Daugy (monthly electricity data), Jean-Baptiste Debreuil (lead natural gas), Carlos Fernandez Alvarez (lead coal), Luis Fernando Rosa (oil), Julia Guyon (China and historical data), Stefan Lorenczik (co-lead electricity), Gergely Molnar (natural gas), Akos Losz (natural gas), Laszlo Varro (lead macroeconomics), Brent Wanner (lead electricity supply and nuclear). Gianluca Tonolo provided essential support.

Jethro Mullen and Gregory Viscusi carried editorial responsibility.

Therese Walsh was the copy-editor.

Thanks go to the IEA’s Communication and Digital Office for their help in producing the report and website materials, particularly to Jad Mouawad, Jethro Mullen, Gregory Viscusi, Astrid Dumond, Christopher Gully, Grace Gordon, Merve Erdil, Rob Stone, Tanya Dyhin and Therese Walsh.