Under the new Accelerating Clean Cooking and Electricity Services Scenario (ACCESS), investment of nearly USD 150 billion is needed to achieve universal electricity access in sub-Saharan Africa by 2035. This represents a six-fold increase in annual spending from today’s levels, facilitated by improvements to the regulatory environment, strengthened risk management by developers and risk-mitigation tools to support more private investment, and a more targeted use of concessional funds.

Around 45% of households currently without access are connected via the grid under the ACCESS scenario, with financial support for households to reduce connection fees and increased community engagement to improve take-up rates once the grid arrives. However, decentralised solutions remain essential, especially for rural areas. Integrated energy planning and improved tendering approaches can help design impactful interventions, streamline processes, and thus unlock further capital.

Private finance accounts for roughly 45% of spending under the ACCESS scenario, making up over half of spending in decentralised solutions but a slightly lower share in grids. The private sector already plays a key role in solar home systems (SHS) but faces obstacles in other sectors: many countries do not allow private investment in grids, and mini-grid regulations are often unclear on areas such as tariff design. Improving project bankability, including by raising demand for electricity, and tapping into domestic capital markets, can unlock further private capital.

Concessional finance is essential for derisking private investment and directing capital to underserved markets. Universal access by 2035 will require USD 6.2 billion per year, a significant jump from an average of USD 1 billion per year in 2019-2023. The World Bank and African Development Bank’s Mission 300 – with the target of electrifying 300 million people by 2030 – can help drive up concessional funding levels, which have otherwise been relatively static.

The limited supply of equity remains one of the biggest obstacles to scaling electricity access spending. Without equity, companies are forced to find less well-adapted financing solutions, relying on results-based finance or debt financing. This inhibits the creation of a pipeline of bankable projects and prevents companies from being able to scale up. Increasing patient equity, primarily from concessional finance providers, will be crucial.

To support the private financing of decentralised solutions, new solutions are emerging in recent years and include off-balance sheet financing via securitisation, the development of energy-as-a-service models for households with low incomes, the use of green bonds for mini-grids and crowdfunding.