Global coal trade retreated in 2025 after hitting an all-time high the previous year, with total imports falling by around 4% to 1.48 billion tonnes (Bt). The decline was concentrated in thermal coal, with weaker demand across most major importing countries reducing trade volumes to around 1.11 Bt. By country, China accounted for most of the drop: imports there fell from a record 548 million tonnes (Mt) in 2024 to around 495 Mt in 2025 as sluggish demand, strong domestic production and ample inventories curbed the need for foreign coal. India’s import growth also stalled, while purchases in Japan, Korea, Chinese Taipei and the European Union extended previous declines. Southeast Asia was the main exception, with resilient demand in several countries helping to offset some of the declines elsewhere.

On the supply side, Indonesia accounted for the largest reduction in thermal coal exports, with shipments falling to 517 Mt in 2025 from 557 Mt in 2024, mainly reflecting the drop in Chinese imports. Australia’s thermal coal exports remained broadly stable at 209 Mt. Colombia’s thermal coal shipments dropped sharply to 45 Mt – their lowest level since 2003 – while exports from the United States also declined. Russia, by contrast, maintained thermal coal exports at around 130 Mt, with continued sales to Asian markets offsetting the effects of sanctions, logistical constraints and weak profitability.

Global trade in metallurgical coal also weakened in 2025, retreating from the record level reached in 2024 amid softer coal demand for steel and reduced Chinese import requirements. Australia remained the world’s largest exporter of metallurgical coal, shipping around 142 Mt, while Mongolia continued to be a key supplier to the Chinese market. Russia and Canada also remained important suppliers, while shipments from the United States declined from the previous year. As a swing supplier, the US export volumes are sensitive to prices.

We now expect global coal trade volumes to edge higher in 2026, contrary to our December forecast of a contraction, as a result of the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, which has pushed up import demand in some countries as well as a surge in Chinese imports from neighbouring Mongolia.

Seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to fall to around 1 062 Mt in 2026 from about 1 074 Mt in 2025. This is driven primarily by China, whose seaborne thermal coal imports are projected to drop to around 310 Mt from 325 Mt in 2025 as the country draws on its high inventories and increases Mongolian imports.

India and Europe remain the main sources of decline in seaborne thermal coal demand. India’s imports are projected to fall to around 160 Mt in 2026 from 167 Mt in 2025, as high inventories and efforts to substitute imports with domestic coal weigh on purchases from both utilities and industrial consumers. In Europe, however, the main driver is the drop in Türkiye, where we expect a drop of 8 Mt down to 30 Mt, owing to weaker coal demand for power generation.

Stronger demand elsewhere should temper those declines. Japan’s imports of thermal coal, for example, are expected to remain firm at around 124 Mt, following an upward revision due to the conflict in the Middle East, while Korea’s coal imports are forecast to rise by more than 10% from 2025 amid a series of nuclear outages and higher natural gas prices.

Southeast Asia remains the only major source of sustained import growth, with regional imports of coal expected to increase to around 164 Mt from 156 Mt in 2025, led by Viet Nam, where imports will likely reach 62 Mt, up from 55 Mt last year.  Power generation demand in Viet Nam continues to outstrip domestic coal supply, despite government efforts to encourage production.

Global exports of thermal coal are therefore expected to decline only marginally in 2026, as weaker seaborne trade outweighs higher rail-based exports mainly from Mongolia to China. Indonesia is responsible for much of the decline, with exports projected to fall sharply to around 485 Mt from 517 Mt in 2025 as weaker demand in key markets weighs on shipments. Indonesian export flows also remain subject to uncertainty over production targets, export policies and regulatory changes, including the planned transition to a new state-owned company, Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI), which will eventually oversee all coal exports. The system entered an experimental phase in June and is scheduled to become fully operational in September.

Other major exporters are expected to fare better. South Africa should see its shipments increase slightly to around 71 Mt, despite recent train derailments and other rail corridor constraints that continue to affect coal flows to Richards Bay, the main exporting port. Australian and Russian exports are forecast to increase to around 216 Mt and 132 Mt, respectively, underscoring their relative resilience amid challenging market conditions.

Meanwhile, global trade in metallurgical coal is poised for a significant jump in 2026. Seaborne demand for metallurgical coal is projected to rise by 16 Mt from 304 Mt in 2025, reflecting stronger demand from India and Indonesia, which is offsetting weaker Chinese seaborne imports and softer demand in Japan, Korea and Chinese Taipei. Indonesia’s coking coal imports are expected to surge by 38% as it ramps up coke exports, meaning that it will overtake China to become the world’s largest coke exporter.

The bigger story, however, is China’s accelerating shift away from seaborne supply and towards Mongolia. Mongolian coking coal exports to China by rail are expected to surge more than 50% to around 91 Mt. Chinese purchases from Mongolia, which were already on the rise, have jumped amid disruptions to domestic production after a mining accident in Shanxi province in May prompted temporary closures for safety inspections. The impact has been particularly significant for coking coal, as more than half of Chinese coking coal is produced in Shanxi.

Elsewhere, Australia will remain the dominant exporter of metallurgical coal – exceeding 150 Mt in 2026 – although weather and operational disruptions might continue to constrain shipments. Russia, meanwhile, faces continued pressure from sanctions and logistics bottlenecks as its exports are routed to Asian markets through Far East ports. The export volumes from the United States, a price sensitive exporter, depend on price levels.

Despite the resilience of metallurgical coal seen in 2026, overall coal trade volumes will likely retreat to 2025 levels next year, as shipments of thermal coal continue to decline across much of Asia and Europe. The main driver is China, where demand for imported thermal coal remains weak. Meanwhile, the structural decline in imports by the European Union, Japan, Korea and Chinese Taipei continues unabated. India’s thermal coal imports are expected to remain broadly stable, with stronger industrial demand offsetting lower import requirements from the power sector. Southeast Asia remains the only major source of import growth for thermal coal, led by Viet Nam and the Philippines. But this increase is too small to outweigh falling imports in China and other mature import markets.

On the export side, Indonesia is expected to account for the largest decline in thermal coal shipments, reflecting weaker demand from key Asian buyers and rising domestic consumption. Russian exports are also projected to fall, although the outlook remains uncertain given ongoing trade sanctions, logistical constraints and the effect of government support measures. Colombian thermal coal exports are expected to drop further amid weak Atlantic demand, while exports from Australia and South Africa remain broadly stable. Taken together, these shifts are expected to reduce global thermal coal exports to around 1 087 Mt.

Unlike thermal coal, metallurgical coal trade is expected to remain broadly stable in 2027. Stronger import demand from India, driven by expanding steel production and limited domestic supplies of high-quality coking coal, is expected to offset weaker demand in China and other mature economies. Australia, the largest metallurgical coal exporter, is expected to capture most of the resulting increase in export volumes, while the United States also benefits from stronger demand. By contrast, Mongolia’s export outlook remains closely tied to Chinese import demand.