Cite report
IEA, IRENA & UN Climate Change High-Level Champions (2023), Breakthrough Agenda Report 2023, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/breakthrough-agenda-report-2023
Report options
Road transport
State of transition
While road transport emissions continue to rebound towards pre-pandemic levels, sales of electric passenger cars – currently 14% of total car sales – have been doubling every 1.2 years. If this rate continues, the deployment of electric cars will exceed what is required under a net zero scenario, reaching 65% of new sales before 2030. Electrification across other vehicle types, as well as policies to reduce car use, will also be needed.
- Direct CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in the road sector have risen by 200 Mt since 2015. Emissions need to fall by nearly one-third by 2030 to align with the IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE Scenario).
- Variability in the price and availability of critical minerals largely explains why electric vehicle (EV) battery price reductions have stalled in recent years.
- Recent falls in critical mineral prices could lead to a reduction in battery prices in 2023, hastening purchase price parity for electric cars, which is expected to occur before 2030 in small and medium segments.
- The total cost of ownership (TCO) of electric buses and trucks is likely to be lower than their diesel counterparts across nearly all medium- and heavy-duty segments by 2030 in Europe, the United States and China.
- The global market share of EVs in other vehicle categories is growing, but will need to continue growing rapidly to achieve net zero ambitions.
Progress summary
Area | What progress has been made? | What more needs to be done? | 2023 |
---|---|---|---|
Long-term vision |
Increased membership of multiple initiatives setting voluntary commitments for zero emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption. Notable expansion of commitments beyond electric cars, including 5 corporate members of EV100+ and 14 corporate members of FMC Trucking. |
Translate voluntary commitments into binding policies for all major markets and secure broader support from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Expand commitments into new vehicle segments, including 2- and 3-wheelers. |
|
Finance and investment |
ZEV-Transition Council (ZEVTC) International Assistance Taskforce (IAT) and the Collective for Clean Transport Finance providing mapping and technical assistance, with a particular focus in Sub-Saharan Africa and India. Expansion of technical and financial assistance, notably via the GEF-7 Global Electric Mobility Programme and the World Bank’s Global Facility to Decarbonise Transport. |
Scale up support globally, including in product supply, policy and standards, through stronger co-ordinated working. Further co-ordinate to scale, accelerate and de-risk investment, reduce cost of capital, and mobilise companies. Countries should better track project-level key performance indicators to guide future policies and assistance efforts. |
|
Supply chains |
Co-ordination on EV battery supply chain sustainability by the Global Battery Alliance (GBA). UNECE developing methodology for measuring GHG emissions, covering the entire automotive life cycle. |
Greater global harmonisation of sustainability standards (i.e. battery carbon footprint, responsible sourcing) and common, interoperable standards for digital product passports (i.e. data governance). Support data & research on key obstacles and policies for enhancing circularity in battery value chains. |
|
Infrastructure |
Establishment of ZEVTC taskforce to facilitate collaboration on charging infrastructure deployment. ZEVWISE Coalition sharing knowledge and expertise in the medium- and heavy-duty segments, including infrastructure deployment and financing. |
Agree on a set of priority areas for scaling up technical and financial assistance and design an implementation plan for delivery. Design regional roadmaps that lay out the needs for infrastructure deployment for trucks and buses. |
|
Trade conditions |
UNEP given a formal charter by the UN Environment Assembly to pursue policy-oriented data collection and research on used vehicle quality standards. |
Exporting and importing countries should convene to agree on an international harmonised framework on minimum standards on used vehicles, and establish a publicly accessible database for tracking. |
Road transport recommendations
- Governments should agree on a timeline by which all new road vehicle sales should be zero emission, with interim targets for countries taking into account their level of economic development and ability to scale up infrastructure. Governments should put effective policies in place to implement these commitments. Targets should be in line with international climate goals and should include all vehicle types.
- Governments and international organisations should increase low-cost financing and dedicated funding to projects to accelerate ZEV adoption in EMDEs, focusing on ensuring that EMDE countries are aware of and have ready access to technical assistance and financing offers, and ensuring the effectiveness of project delivery and policy development support.
- Governments should work together to agree on harmonised sustainability standards and metrics, including battery carbon footprint, responsible sourcing and broader environmental, social and governance risks and impacts wherever possible. In the context of digital product passports, they should work towards enabling global interoperability, including harmonised data governance (i.e. data collection, management, assurance and verification standards). Further, governments should jointly address priority areas for sustainable value chains including transport, trade and recycling bottlenecks for battery materials at the end of life, circularity-based product design and processing, and technical assistance for developing markets and emerging economies on EV battery end-of-life management.
- Governments should agree to further increase technical and financial assistance to support charging infrastructure. Governments and companies should support and leverage the mechanisms established for sharing best practices, knowledge, and relevant technology, and for supporting implementation by countries and Non-State Actors at national and regional levels.
- Exporting and importing countries should agree on minimum standards for cross-border trade of used vehicles. Countries should establish a publicly accessible database for tracking cross-border used vehicle trade. Governments and companies should develop strategies to define and legislate quality standards, enforced at ports of export and defined based on standards established by importing countries, for used Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles, as well as commitments to support the international trade of second-hand ZEVs, and publish plans by COP28.