Ukraine’s energy system faces significant risks this winter as Russian threat evolves

Ukraine has made significant strides to strengthen the resilience of its energy system as it enters its fifth winter of war since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. But as Russian drones become more sophisticated, they threaten to outpace these efforts – with the country still likely to face power shortages in the coming months, according to a new IEA report.

Published today, the report takes stock of Ukraine’s energy system and preparedness for the 2026-27 winter heating season, when electricity demand rises as colder temperatures raise energy needs across the country. It also draws lessons from last winter, when widespread damage to power plants and electricity networks led to prolonged outages during a colder-than-average winter.

Since last winter, Ukraine has taken important steps to secure its energy system. Over the past year, it has continued to invest in air defences as well as passive protection measures for critical energy infrastructure, such as anti-drone netting. It has also added around 400 megawatts (MW) of distributed gas-fired power generation, alongside new wind capacity and battery storage, and created strategic reserves of energy equipment. Smaller, more widely distributed energy resources are more difficult for drones to target than large power plants.  

Decentralised power supply and electricity imports helped Ukraine’s energy system weather disruptions last winter, with imports covering a growing share of the deficit, especially during evening peaks. However, neither was used to its full potential. Bringing new distributed units into operation could take substantially longer than initially expected, while market rules – including price caps – at times limited imports. Electricity grid bottlenecks also restricted how far imported power could reach eastern regions of Ukraine, leaving them particularly exposed.

At the same time, Russia has intensified its attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and started using faster, jet-powered drones that are harder to intercept. These attacks have already damaged power generation assets, electricity networks, gas facilities and oil infrastructure ahead of the heating season. As a result, the report warns that power shortages are likely this winter, with their severity depending on the intensity of attacks and weather conditions.

The report finds that some of the most effective measures available for this winter involve making better use of assets Ukraine already has at its disposal. Connecting delivered equipment could add power generation capacity within weeks, while allowing batteries and consumers to help manage demand could curb electricity consumption during evening peaks.

Protecting district heating is another priority. More than 30% of Ukrainian households rely on district heating, which has come under increasingly heavy attack over the past two winters. When heating systems fail, households turn to electric heaters, adding to electricity demand when the system is already under strain. Decentralising heating, including by using a larger number of smaller co-generation units and modular boiler houses connected to district heating networks, has helped some households maintain heat supplies despite repeated strikes and demonstrates the value of this approach, according to the report.

To prepare for the upcoming winter, the report calls for a shift from winter-by-winter emergency measures towards multiyear resilience planning. With critical energy equipment taking six to nine months to deliver, procurement for the winter 2027-28 heating season should begin now, according to the report. Coordinated purchasing, strategic equipment reserves and financing that covers installation as well as delivery are all measures that could help Ukraine and its partners move more quickly from responding to damage towards preparing for future attacks.