For resource rich-economies, the high reliance on hydrocarbon revenues, coupled the risk of fluctuations in prices, creates well-known pitfalls. The current market and policy environment is adding to these uncertainties, with questions surrounding the impact of the shale revolution in the short term, along with longer-term structural questions about the outlook for demand. In response to these changing conditions, many major producers are displaying a renewed commitment to reform and economic diversificaiton.
This analysis focuses mainly on six countries: Iraq, Nigeria, Russia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. It provides a comprehensive assessment of how the prospects for major oil and gas producer economies evolve in various scenarios to 2040.
The report assesses the impact of different price and demand trajectories on revenues from oil and gas in several key producer economies; explores the ways in which the energy sector can help mitigate vulnerabilities and support economic diversification; and examines the potential implications of different pathways for energy markets, global environmental goals, and energy security.