Energy-related CO2 emissions implied by climate pledges, 2010-2050

Sources

IEA (2025), Climate Pledges Explorer.

Notes

CPS = Current Policies Scenario; NDC = nationally determined contribution; STEPS = Stated Policies Scenario. Estimates exclude international bunkers. Ranges for 2030 NDCs and new NDCs reflect the conditionality of international support for the full achievement of pledges from developing economies, and the uncertainty over the contribution of the energy sector in economy-wide targets. The analysis covers new NDCs submitted until 27 March 2026. Countries without new NDCs are assumed to have the same rate of mitigation as in their latest NDC, except for the United States, which has exited the Paris Agreement. Detailed methodology can be found in the Annex of the State of Energy Policy 2026.