-
Oil Market Report - April 2026
…trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. Listen to the most recent episode of the Everything Energy podcast with senior oil market analysts Rebecca Schulz and David Martin, which draws on fresh data and analysis from the April OMR Highlights Oil demand is expected to contract by 80 kb/d this year, as the Iran war upends our global outlook. This is 730 kb/d less than in last month’s Report and a forecast 1.5 mb/d 2Q26 decline would be the sharpest since Covid-19 slashed fuel consumption. Initially, the deepest cuts in oil use have…
-
Oil Market Report - March 2025
…recent delivery data have been below expectations, leading to slightly lower estimates for 4Q24 and 1Q25 growth at 1.2 mb/d y-o-y.World oil supply rose by 240 kb/d in February to 103.3 mb/d, led by OPEC+. Kazakhstan pumped at an all-time high as Tengiz ramped up, while Iran and Venezuela boosted flows ahead of tighter sanctions. Non-OPEC+ production is set to rise by 1.5 mb/d in 2025, led by the Americas. Following a 770 kb/d output decline last year, OPEC+ output could hold steady in 2025 if voluntary…
-
Oil Market Report - June 2025
…rallied by $5/bbl to $74/bbl after Israel's 13 June air strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities. May and early June prices were range-bound as trade tensions subsided somewhat after the United States and China agreed a three-month tariff détente. Conversely, plans by OPEC+ to accelerate the unwinding of voluntary output cuts added to the prospect of comfortable 2H25 balances. Geopolitical risk in focus Global oil markets were roiled by a rapid escalation in geopolitical tensions after Israel launched a series of air strikes on targets in Iran on 13 June and Tehran retaliated…
-
Gas Market Report, Q3-2025
…fall amid weaker natural gas demand and strong competition from Europe for flexible LNG cargoes. Geopolitical tensions have continued to fuel price volatility, while adding to the unusually wide range of uncertainties that could affect this report’s short-term forecasts. The conflict between Israel and Iran highlighted the Middle East’s important role in energy security and served as a stark reminder that geopolitical tensions can easily distort a still-fragile global gas balance. This report includes a special section on the Middle East. Meanwhile, global LNG supply growth is set to accelerate in 2026 to its fastest pace…
-
Oil Market Report - August 2025
…By early August, however, prices tumbled by $3/bbl to $67/bbl after OPEC+ announced plans to fully unwind its 2.2 mb/d voluntary output cuts by September. Beneath the calm Oil prices have been caught in the crosshairs of fast-changing market dynamics. While new sanctions on Russia and Iran threaten to impact trade flows, weaker economic growth is poised to temper demand. Volatility in oil markets slumped to near all-time lows in July as Brent crude oil futures hovered around $70/bbl. However, the early August OPEC+ supply agreement and the prospects for untenable stock builds…
-
Oil Market Report - September 2025
…being pulled in different directions by a range of forces, with the potential for supply losses stemming from new sanctions on Russia and Iran coming against a backdrop of higher OPEC+ supply and the prospect of increasingly bloated oil balances. China continues to stockpile crude oil, helping keep Brent crude futures in slight backwardation. Prices moved in a narrow band since August and at the time of writing Brent was $67/bbl, largely unchanged from a month earlier.Toughened sanctions on Iran and Russia have so far had a relatively modest impact on supply and trade flows, even as exports...
-
Oil Market Report - October 2025
…while oil on water dropped 8 mb. Preliminary data for September show sharply higher oil stocks, led by a 102 mb build in oil on water.In calm trading, benchmark crude prices were little changed in September, as a looming supply surplus dampened the bullish impact of heightened Ukraine tensions and fresh sanctions against Russia and Iran. Price volatility continued to languish at historical lows. At the time of writing, ICE Brent futures were trading at around $64/bbl – down approximately $11/bbl year-to-date. Stocking up The oil market has been in surplus since the start of the…
-
Oil Market Report - January 2026
…oil prices jumped by about $6/bbl at the start of the new year in the wake of geopolitical developments in Iran and Venezuela, but eased by mid-month as tensions moderated. North Sea Dated fell by $0.99/bbl m-o-m in December to an average $62.64/bbl, as markets remained well supplied. This was the benchmark’s sixth consecutive monthly decline, with prices hitting a low of $60.07/bbl mid-month – the weakest since early 2021. Buffer zone The new year got off to a turbulent start as geopolitical tensions rose around Iran and Venezuela…
-
Oil Market Report - February 2026
…oil markets on tenterhooks about uncertain developments in the Persian Gulf. Off balance Benchmark crude oil prices surged by $10/bbl over January as a number of supply outages tightened physical crude markets and geopolitical tensions rose between Iran and the United States. While prices gave back a few dollars at the start of February on reports of progress in ongoing negotiations to de-escalate the tensions, they quickly reversed course after the United States advised ships to steer clear of Iranian waters when navigating the Strait of Hormuz. ICE Brent futures traded around $70/bbl at the time of…
-
Oil Market Report - March 2026
…April compared to previous estimates. Higher oil prices and a more precarious outlook for the global economy pose further risks to the forecast. Global oil consumption is now set to increase by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 2026 – down 210 kb/d from last month.Oil prices have gyrated wildly since the United States and Israel launched joint air strikes on Iran on 28 February. Disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies due to attacks on the region’s oil infrastructure and the cessation of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent futures soaring, trading within a whisker…