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Oil Market Report - August 2019
…oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. Highlights Global demand fell 160 kb/d y-o-y in May, the second annual fall seen in 2019. In January to May it was up only 520 kb/d, the lowest increase for the period since 2008. Chinese oil demand was revised upwards, but India and the US show weakness. We lowered our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 by 100 kb/d and 50 kb/d, to 1.1 mb/d and 1.3 mb/d, respectively.Global oil supply held steady in July above 100 mb/d, but fell below year earlier levels for the first…
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Oil Market Report - April 2019
…trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. Highlights Our global demand growth estimates for 2018 and 2019 are again unchanged at 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively. After a slow start to the year, OECD growth will be 0.3 mb/d, with non-OECD growing by 1.1 mb/d.Demand in China, India and the US is estimated to have grown by 1 mb/d in Jan-Feb 2019. OECD demand fell in 4Q18 for the first time since end-2014 and also in 1Q19, mainly on weaker European numbers, but it will recover, led by the US.Global oil supply dropped…
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Oil Market Report - October 2018
…for demand growth in 2018 and 2019 has been reduced for both years by 110 kb/d to 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively. This is due to a weaker economic outlook, trade concerns, higher oil prices and a revision to Chinese data.OECD demand, supported by a strong 1Q18 and robust US growth, will expand by 300 kb/d in 2018, slowing to 130 kb/d in 2019. Non-OECD demand will grow by 1 mb/d in 2018, led by China and India, which together account for 60% of the global increase.Global oil supply is growing fast; in September, world oil production…
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Oil Market Report - September 2018
…1.4 mb/d and 1.5 mb/d, respectively. The pace of growth slowed sharply in 2Q18, caused by weaker OECD Europe and Asia demand. US gasoline demand growth eased due to higher prices.Non-OECD demand remains resilient but there is a risk to the 2019 outlook from currency depreciation and trade disputes. Demand in China and India combined will grow by 910 kb/d in 2018, but the pace slows to 640 kb/d in 2019.Global supply in August reached a record 100 mb/d as higher output from OPEC offset seasonal declines from non-OPEC. Nevertheless, non-OPEC supply was up 2…
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Oil Market Report - January 2018
…pushed up the 2017 growth to 1.6 mb/d, while our growth estimate for 2018 remains unchanged at 1.3 mb/d.The slowdown in 2018 demand growth is mainly due to the impact of higher oil prices, changing patterns of oil use in China, recent weakness in OECD demand and the switch to natural gas in several non-OECD countries.Global oil supply in December eased by 405 kb/d to 97.7 mb/d due mostly to lower North Sea and Venezuelan output. Production was steady on a year ago as non-OPEC gains of nearly 1 mb/d offset declines in OPEC.A plunge in Venezuelan…
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Oil Market Report - October 2017
…was down 400 kb/d on a year ago. Compliance with supply cuts for the year-to-date is 86%.OECD commercial stocks fell 14.2 mb in August from an upwardly revised July. The surplus over the five-year average fell to 170 mb. Global stocks are likely to have drawn in 3Q17 as reductions in floating storage and the OECD outweighed net builds in China.Benchmark crude prices rose by $2-4/bbl in September versus August, marking the third straight month of gains. Middle distillate prices increased almost twice as fast as crude, reflecting lower refinery throughputs and higher demand.For…
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Oil Market Report - December 2018
…rose 100 kb/d m-o-m to 33.03 mb/d in November as Saudi Arabia and the UAE reached record highs, more than offsetting a sharp loss from Iran. The group agreed to cut output by 0.8 mb/d from January.Global refining throughput growth came to a halt in 4Q18, with annual losses in Latin America and Europe only just offset by gains in the US, Middle East and China. Lower crude prices helped margins, although the gasoline-focused US Gulf Coast lagged behind.OECD commercial stocks rose in October for the fourth consecutive month, by 5.7 mb, to 2 872 mb…
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Oil Market Report - April 2018
…partly due to cold weather in the US and the start-up of a petrochemical project. There are offsetting reductions to growth in 2Q and 3Q.Non-OECD demand in 1Q18, by contrast, has been revised down by 260 kb/d due to weak Chinese data. India's early 2018 growth is strong at 380 kb/d y-o-y in the first two months.Global oil supply eased by 120 kb/d in March, to 97.8 mb/d, after OPEC and non-OPEC producers deepened their cuts to 2.4 mb/d. Output was nevertheless 1.4 mb/d higher than a year ago mainly due…
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Oil Market Report - December 2017
…the highest this year, and lifted the 2017 average to 91%.OECD commercial stocks fell 40.3 mb in October to 2 940 mb, their lowest level since July 2015. They are now 111 mb above the five-year average. Chinese crude stocks likely fell in October for the first time in a year. Preliminary global stocks data for November shows a mixed picture.Benchmark crude prices rose by $4-5/bbl on average in November and traded at their highest level in more than two years in early December. The extension of the OPEC/non-OPEC output cuts and, latterly, the closure of the…
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Latin America Energy Outlook 2023
World Energy Outlook Special Report Latin America and the Caribbean is a region that stands out in the global energy sector. It boasts extraordinary natural resources – both fossil fuels and renewable energy – and a significant share of the world’s critical minerals. It also has a history of ambitious policy making in pursuit of stronger energy security and greater sustainability that has delivered one of the cleanest electricity mixes in the world. As the region emerges from a period of sluggish economic growth, countries in Latin America and the Caribbean now stand to leverage these resources to revitalise their economies…
