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Oil Market Report - May 2019
…demand growth estimate has been revised down by 70 kb/d to 1.2 mb/d and our 2019 forecast is reduced by 90 kb/d to 1.3 mb/d. Revisions for 2018 impacted mainly non-OECD Asia and African countries. The 2019 revision is seen in OECD Asia in 1Q19.Non-OECD countries will drive global oil demand in 2019, adding 1.1 mb/d of growth, with China and India growing by 0.7 mb/d. Net OECD growth will be 0.2 mb/d, led by the US. Global oil demand will average 100.4 mb/d in 2019.In April, global oil supply fell 300 kb/d…
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Oil Market Report - January 2019
…2019 are unchanged at 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively. The impact of higher oil prices in 2018 is fading, which will help offset lower economic growth.Non-OECD countries dominate oil demand growth in 2019, with the 875 kb/d seen last year accelerating to 1.15 mb/d. China and India provide 62% of the total. OECD growth will slow from 390 kb/d in 2018 to 280 kb/d in 2019. The US provides 82% of the OECD total.Global oil supply fell by 950 kb/d in December, led by lower OPEC output ahead of new supply cuts. At 100.6 mb/d…
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Oil Market Report - October 2018
…for demand growth in 2018 and 2019 has been reduced for both years by 110 kb/d to 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively. This is due to a weaker economic outlook, trade concerns, higher oil prices and a revision to Chinese data.OECD demand, supported by a strong 1Q18 and robust US growth, will expand by 300 kb/d in 2018, slowing to 130 kb/d in 2019. Non-OECD demand will grow by 1 mb/d in 2018, led by China and India, which together account for 60% of the global increase.Global oil supply is growing fast; in September, world oil production…
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Oil Market Report - September 2018
…1.4 mb/d and 1.5 mb/d, respectively. The pace of growth slowed sharply in 2Q18, caused by weaker OECD Europe and Asia demand. US gasoline demand growth eased due to higher prices.Non-OECD demand remains resilient but there is a risk to the 2019 outlook from currency depreciation and trade disputes. Demand in China and India combined will grow by 910 kb/d in 2018, but the pace slows to 640 kb/d in 2019.Global supply in August reached a record 100 mb/d as higher output from OPEC offset seasonal declines from non-OPEC. Nevertheless, non-OPEC supply was up 2…
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Oil Market Report - May 2017
…higher than sweet crudes.In 2Q17, global refining activity slows down seasonally, lower by 370 kb/d from 1Q17, but is set to ramp up by 2.4 mb/d by July-August. The OECD leads the way: in non-OECD areas, maintenance and refinery closures in the Middle East, underperformance in Latin America and flat growth in India are not offset by growth in China and Russia. Highlights Weakness in a number of previously solid countries - India, US, Germany and Turkey - curtailed the 1H17 global demand growth estimate by 115 kb/d. Global demand growth is, however, still forecast at 1.3 mb/d…
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Oil Market Report - October 2024
…trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. Highlights World oil demand is on track to expand by just shy of 900 kb/d in 2024 and close to 1 mb/d in 2025, marking a sharp slowdown on the roughly 2 mb/d seen over the 2022-2023 post-pandemic period. China underpins the deceleration in growth, accounting for around 20% of global gains both this year and next year, compared to almost 70% in 2023.Global oil supply plunged by 640 kb/d in September to 102.8 mb/d, with Libya’s political quagmire disrupting the country…
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Oil Market Report - October 2017
…was down 400 kb/d on a year ago. Compliance with supply cuts for the year-to-date is 86%.OECD commercial stocks fell 14.2 mb in August from an upwardly revised July. The surplus over the five-year average fell to 170 mb. Global stocks are likely to have drawn in 3Q17 as reductions in floating storage and the OECD outweighed net builds in China.Benchmark crude prices rose by $2-4/bbl in September versus August, marking the third straight month of gains. Middle distillate prices increased almost twice as fast as crude, reflecting lower refinery throughputs and higher demand.For…
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Oil Market Report - February 2017
…time projects are coming on stream in Brazil and Canada.OECD total oil stocks fell nearly 800 kb/d in 4Q16, the largest fall in three years.End-December inventories were below 3 000 mb for the first time since December 2015. Stocks continued to build in China and other emerging economies and volumes of oil at sea also increased.Front-month Brent futures gained by a modest $0.59/bbl to $55.51/bbl in January as traders awaited news of OPEC cuts. The Brent contango narrowed, while sour benchmark Dubai continued to rise versus Brent and WTI. Gasoline…
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Oil Market Report - June 2017
…preliminary data suggests stocks falling in Fujairah, Japan, Europe, Singapore and in vessels offshore, but rising in the US and China.Benchmark crude oil prices fell after 23 May, reflecting lower expectations about the pace of global market rebalancing. At publication time, crude prices are close to the levels when the OPEC output deal was announced. Fuel oil prices and cracks were boosted as stocks fell to their lowest level in two years due to tight supplies of sour crudes. Gasoline and naphtha prices fell.Record high US refinery throughput in April and May led to upward revisions to our 2Q17 and…
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Oil Market Report - April 2017
The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world’s most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. Highlights Global demand growth of 1.3 mb/d is forecast for 2017, a second consecutive annual decline and slightly below our prior forecast following weaker than expected 1Q17 demand. Subdued gains in Russia and India, and weaker momentum in OECD countries, were key factors.World oil supply fell…