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Oil Market Report - June 2023
…are forecast to increase by 1.8 mb/d in 2023 and 1 mb/d next year when it averages 83.4 mb/d. A further decline in OECD crude runs next year is more than offset by the 1.3 mb/d increase in non-OECD activity. New capacity in Oman and Kuwait and ample availability of discounted Russian crude in Asia skews activity away from the Atlantic Basin. Refinery margins were stable in May, with gains in Atlantic Basin light distillates partially offset by weaker middle distillates.Global observed oil inventories rose by 10 mb in April as…
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Oil Market Report - May 2023
…However, weak margins mean the 2H23 runs forecast has been downgraded, most notably for Europe and the US. New capacity and ample availability of discounted Russian crude in Asia skews activity away from the Atlantic Basin.Russian exports of crude and refined oil products edged up in April to a post-invasion high of 8.3 mb/d. Shipments of crude oil increased by 250 kb/d, offsetting a decline in product exports of 200 kb/d. Estimated oil export revenues increased by $1.7 billion to $15 billion on the back of higher crude oil exports and a narrower…
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Oil Market Report - April 2017
…inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. Highlights Global demand growth of 1.3 mb/d is forecast for 2017, a second consecutive annual decline and slightly below our prior forecast following weaker than expected 1Q17 demand. Subdued gains in Russia and India, and weaker momentum in OECD countries, were key factors.World oil supply fell by 755 kb/d in March as OPEC and non-OPEC producers pumped less and improved compliance with the output reduction pact. Total non-OPEC output is set to rise again, however, with growth of 485 kb/d…
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Oil Market Report - December 2018
…d, as the impact of lower prices is offset by lower economic growth assumptions, weakening currencies and downward revisions to certain countries e.g. Venezuela.Global oil supply fell 360 kb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) in November to 101.1 mb/d due lower output in the North Sea, Canada and Russia. Cuts from January reduce non-OPEC production growth for 2019 by 415 kb/d, to 1.5 mb/d, compared with 2.4 mb/d in 2018.OPEC crude oil output rose 100 kb/d m-o-m to 33.03 mb/d in November as Saudi Arabia and the UAE reached record highs, more…
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Oil Market Report - May 2017
…before the OPEC output deal. They rose on 15 May after Russia and Saudi Arabia indicated support for an extension of the production cuts. Sour grades continued to trade higher than sweet crudes.In 2Q17, global refining activity slows down seasonally, lower by 370 kb/d from 1Q17, but is set to ramp up by 2.4 mb/d by July-August. The OECD leads the way: in non-OECD areas, maintenance and refinery closures in the Middle East, underperformance in Latin America and flat growth in India are not offset by growth in China and Russia. Highlights Weakness in a number of…
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Oil Market Report - November 2018
…OECD countries, as the impact of higher year-on-year prices is amplified by currency devaluations and slowing economic activity. Our non-OECD demand forecast has been revised down by 165 kb/d for 2019.Global oil supplies are growing rapidly, as record output from Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US more than offsets declines from Iran and Venezuela. October output was up 2.6 mb/d on a year ago. Non-OPEC output will grow by 2.4 mb/d this year and 1.9 mb/d in 2019.OPEC crude output rose 200 kb/d in October to 32.99 mb/d, up 240 kb…
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Oil Market Report - February 2018
…in January, to 58.6 mb/d, but was 1.3 mb/d higher than a year ago. US crude output, up 1.3 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), will soon overtake Saudi Arabia and could catch Russia by the end of the year. Compliance with output cuts by non-OPEC countries was 85%.Global oil demand growth for 2018 has been increased slightly to 1.4 mb/d, partly due to an optimistic GDP forecast from the IMF. This is down from last year’s gain of 1.6 mb/d, as higher oil prices, shifting…
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Oil Market Report - December 2017
…raised by roughly 0.2 mb/d.Global oil supply rose 0.2 mb/d in November to 97.8 mb/d, the highest in a year, on the back of rising US production. Output was nonetheless down 1.1 mb/d on a year ago when Russia and Middle East OPEC producers pumped at record rates. Non-OPEC supply is set to rise by 0.6 mb/d in 2017 and 1.6 mb/d next year.OPEC crude supply fell in November for the fourth consecutive month to 32.36 mb/d, down 1.3 mb/d on a year ago. Output was lower in Saudi Arabia…
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Oil Market Report - January 2018
…drive up non-OPEC supply by 1.7 mb/d in 2018, versus last year's 0.7 mb/d increase. US crude supply will push past 10 mb/d, overtaking Saudi Arabia and rivalling Russia.OECD commercial stocks declined for the fourth consecutive month in November, by 17.9 mb, with a large fall in middle distillates. Preliminary data for December suggest a further fall of 42.7 mb.Global crude oil markets saw an exceptionally tight 4Q17 as the large draw in OECD crude stocks coincided with a decline in Chinese implied crude balances. The combined draw is estimated at 1 mb/d.Benchmark crude…
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Oil Market Report - July 2018
…1H18 will see growth of close to 1.2 mb/d, accelerating to 1.6 mb/d in the second half. We expect growth of 1.4 mb/d in world oil demand in both 2018 and 2019, unchanged from last month's Report.Global oil supply rose by 370 kb/d in June mainly due to higher Saudi Arabian and Russian output as parties to the Vienna Agreement decided to achieve 100% compliance. OPEC crude production in June reached a four-month high of 31.87 mb/d. A surge from Saudi Arabia offset losses in Angola, Libya, and Venezuela.Non-OPEC output is set to expand…