• • Fuel report

  • Dec 2017

  Oil Market Report - December 2017

  …losing almost $1/bbl. Highlights Our forecast for global demand growth remains unchanged at 1.5 mb/d in 2017 (or 1.6%) and 1.3 mb/d in 2018 (or 1.3%). Revisions have been made to data for Nigeria, Germany and Iraq. The baseline for oil demand has been raised by roughly 0.2 mb/d.Global oil supply rose 0.2 mb/d in November to 97.8 mb/d, the highest in a year, on the back of rising US production. Output was nonetheless down 1.1 mb/d on a year ago when Russia and Middle East OPEC producers pumped at…

• • Fuel report

  • May 2017

  Oil Market Report - May 2017

  …refinery closures in the Middle East, underperformance in Latin America and flat growth in India are not offset by growth in China and Russia. Highlights Weakness in a number of previously solid countries - India, US, Germany and Turkey - curtailed the 1H17 global demand growth estimate by 115 kb/d. Global demand growth is, however, still forecast at 1.3 mb/d in 2017, with demand at 97.9 mb/d.Global oil supply fell by 140 kb/d in April as non-OPEC, and especially Canada, pumped less. At 96.17 mb/d, output stood 90 kb/d below a year ago, even as non-OPEC returned…

• • Fuel report

  • Jan 2017

  Oil Market Report - January 2017

  …crudes. Fuel oil was a strong performer due to supply shortages.Higher estimates for 4Q16 global refinery crude throughput - up by 160 kb/d - were partly responsible for a 260 kb/d downward revision for 1Q17. Our analysis of refined product stocks movements shows a 4Q16 build in the OECD, with the overhang in non-OECD implied refined product inventories persisting. Highlights The global demand outlook for 2016 has been raised following the release of robust preliminary 4Q16 numbers. Colder weather in northern Europe provided impetus as did rapid industrially-driven Asian growth. Global oil demand growth for 2016 is now expected to be 1.5 mb/d…

• • Fuel report

  • Aug 2018

  Oil Market Report - August 2018

  …unchanged at 1.4 mb/d. In 2019 growth accelerates slightly to 1.5 mb/d, but there are risks to the forecast from escalating trade disputes and rising prices if supply is constrained.Global oil supply rose by 300 kb/d in July to 99.4 mb/d, 1.1 mb/d above a year-ago. Compliance with the Vienna Agreement eased to 97% in July as output cuts were relaxed. Non-OPEC production is expected to grow by 2 mb/d in 2018 and by 1.85 mb/d next year.OPEC crude oil output was steady in July, at 32.18 mb/d. An unexpected decline in…

• • Fuel report

  • Sep 2018

  Oil Market Report - September 2018

  …significant inventory builds in Japan and the US, and a fall in Europe.ICE Brent prices fell in August but recently have climbed to two-month highs near $80/bbl. Both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI futures curves are backwardated. The Brent/WTI differential has widened by $5/bbl since early August due to relatively weaker US prices. Highlights Global oil demand growth estimates for 2018 and 2019 are unchanged at 1.4 mb/d and 1.5 mb/d, respectively. The pace of growth slowed sharply in 2Q18, caused by weaker OECD Europe and Asia demand. US gasoline demand growth eased due to…

• • Fuel report

  • Oct 2018

  Oil Market Report - October 2018

  …respectively. This is due to a weaker economic outlook, trade concerns, higher oil prices and a revision to Chinese data.OECD demand, supported by a strong 1Q18 and robust US growth, will expand by 300 kb/d in 2018, slowing to 130 kb/d in 2019. Non-OECD demand will grow by 1 mb/d in 2018, led by China and India, which together account for 60% of the global increase.Global oil supply is growing fast; in September, world oil production, at around 100 mb/d, was 2.6 mb/d higher than a year ago. Non-OPEC output is forecast to expand by 2…

• • Fuel report

  • Jun 2017

  Oil Market Report - June 2017

  …Although global growth was only 0.9 mb/d in 1Q17, it accelerates in 2H17 and for the year as a whole our outlook remains unchanged at 1.3 mb/d. In 2018, growth increases modestly to 1.4 mb/d as demand reaches a record 99.3 mb/d.Global oil supply rose by 585 kb/d in May to 96.69 mb/d as both OPEC and non-OPEC countries produced more. Output stood 1.25 mb/d above a year ago, the highest annual increase since February 2016. Gains were dominated by non-OPEC, particularly the US.OPEC crude output rose by 290 kb/d in…

• • Fuel report

  • Nov 2017

  Oil Market Report - November 2017

  …Oil product markets weakened relative to crude following the return of US refineries to higher throughput levels.For 4Q17, our refining throughput forecast is revised marginally lower to 80.8 mb/d, but refined product inventories are forecast to build as demand seasonally slows down. Relatively robust refining activity level continues into January and February 2018, with runs forecast to grow 1.1 mb/d y-o-y.Our analysis of global oil balances implies oversupplied crude oil markets in 4Q17 and 1Q18. While refined product inventories are also forecast to increase, the main oil stock draws are expected from increased seasonal demand…

• • Fuel report

  • Jun 2019

  Oil Market Report - June 2019

  …higher growth in 2H19 at 1.6 mb/d.In 2020, global oil demand growth will rise to 1.4 mb/d, supported by solid non-OECD demand and petrochemicals expansion. The IMO switch will result in major changes to bunker fuel demand, sharply increasing gasoil demand from 4Q19.Non-OPEC supply growth will accelerate from 1.9 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The US leads the gains, but solid growth also comes from Brazil and Norway. In May, global oil supply eased by 0.1 mb/d to 99.5 mb/d, down 2.8 mb/d from the November peak…

• • Fuel report

  • Jun 2018

  Oil Market Report - June 2018

  …northern hemisphere. A slowdown is expected in 2H18.For 2019, our first estimate of demand anticipates growth of 1.4 mb/d. A solid economic background and an assumption of more stable prices are key factors. Risks include possibly higher prices and trade disruptions. Some governments are considering measures to ease price pressures on consumers.Global oil supply rose 276 kb/d in May, to 98.7 mb/d, as non-OPEC output rose further to stand a hefty 2.2 mb/d above a year ago. OPEC production crept higher. Non-OPEC supply will grow by 2.0 mb/d in 2018, easing slightly…