National Climate Resilience Assessment for Algeria

Geography and climate

Algeria experiences significant climate variation from north to south that can be divided into two distinct climates: a sub‑humid Mediterranean climate paralleling the 2 150 kilometre (km) coastline in the north, and south of it, an arid desert climate. On the coast and in the Tell Atlas, the climate is Mediterranean with hot, dry summers and mild, rainy winters, including rare frosts. All cultivable land, representing less than 3% of the country’s area, is located in this climate zone. The High Plains and the Saharan Atlas form a transitional zone where a continental climate is observed. Winters can be cold with temperatures falling below 0 °C, while summers are hot with temperatures regularly exceeding 30 °C and occasionally surpassing 40 °C. This region forms a semi‑arid transitional zone leading into dry desert climate in the south. About 85% of Algeria’s land mass is classified as desert area, characterised by extremely low and irregular rainfall, averaging about 150 millimetres (mm) annually. The Sahara Desert is one of the hottest regions in the world, where day temperatures can reach or even exceed 50 °C, while night temperatures below 0 °C are common, particularly in winter. As a result, more than 90% of Algeria’s population inhabits the coast. Algeria’s energy consumption strongly increased to 1.5 tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) per capita in 2023, well above Morocco, Egypt or Tunisia.

Energy sector

Algeria is a net exporter of energy with substantial oil and gas resources. The economy is highly dependent on hydrocarbon extraction operations – the sector accounted for 14% of gross domestic product (GDP), 86% of exports and 47% of budget revenues between 2019 and 2023. Principally all oil and gas extraction takes place in the hot and arid southern desert areas. A few major pipeline routes link southern fields through the Hassi R’Mel field with the population and export hubs in the north. Due to its high population density, the coastal region also hosts a substantial share of the country’s energy infrastructure and assets such as gas-fired power plants and electricity networks. Over 90% of Algeria’s power generation relies on natural gas. Algeria achieved full access to electricity in 2022, through connections to the national or distributed grids. Algeria has a goal to install 15 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy by 2030, predominantly solar photovoltaic (PV), of which more than 3 GW has already been realised. The government further launched a programme for the development of off-grid renewable energy, specifically aimed at remote areas without a national grid connection.

Temperature

Between 2000 and 2023, Algeria’s mean surface temperature increased by 0.49 °C per decade, significantly exceeding the global average of 0.37 °C per decade in the same period. This warming trend has led to notable shifts in climate patterns and energy consumption. Cooling degree days (CDDs), which give an indication for demand for air conditioning, increased in Algeria by 35% between 2000 and 2023 – more than 100 CDDs per decade – compared with an average increase of 25% globally. At the same time, heating degree days (HDDs), reflecting the demand for heating, decreased at a rate of 70 HDDs per decade over the same period. 

Climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that the temperature rise in Algeria will continue across all emission scenarios through the end of the century, likely outpacing the global average.1 This warming trend is anticipated to be particularly pronounced in the Saharan desert. According to projections, under a low-emissions scenario, in which the global increase in temperature is kept below 2 °C (Below 2 °C), mean temperature increase will likely reach 2.6 °C compared with pre‑industrial levels (1850‑1900) by the end of the century. In a high-emissions scenario, where the global increase in temperature surpasses 3 °C (Above 3 °C), mean temperatures in Algeria can increase by up to 5.6 °C compared with historical levels (1850‑1900).

Algeria is already prone to heatwaves today and experienced an increase in frequency, length and intensity of heatwaves in the 2010‑2020 period compared with 1951‑1980 at all weather stations in the country. While before the 1970s, heatwaves often occurred in the second half of July, now heatwaves are increasingly observed also in other months and seasons. In pre‑industrial times (1850‑1900), the country experienced an average of 107 days with a maximum temperature above 35 °C. Of these, 45 days saw temperatures surpassing 40 °C. Algeria’s average days with a maximum temperature above 35 °C increased to 122 days in the period 1995‑2014. These averages mask significant regional disparities. During 1995‑2014, the 14 most coastal provinces, or wilayas, experienced between 20 and 39 days with maximum temperature above 35 °C, while the 7 most southern wilayas, all located in the Sahara, experienced between 112 and 161 days with maximum temperature above 35 °C. In a low-emissions scenario (Below 2°C), Algeria could face an additional 58 days with maximum temperature above 35 °C. In a high-emissions scenario (Above 3 °C), this increase could reach 113 additional days. 

Algeria’s energy consumption significantly increased in the past two decades. It nearly tripled between 2000 and 2022 and according to the Algerian Ministry of Energy and Mines, it increased 3.6% at the end of September 2024 compared with the previous year alone. The growth in energy demand is a result of Algeria’s development progress and economic growth but is further accelerated by climate change. The air-conditioning market in the country has been growing and is set to increase by 7.9% each year during the forecast period of 2025‑2031. Algeria has the third-largest air-conditioning market on the continent, with Egypt and Nigeria leading the list. Between 2022 and 2024, residential electricity demand increased by 15%, with households consuming annually on average 2 400 kilowatt-hours (kWh). This uptick can be primarily attributed to the growing reliance on air conditioning during summer, with over 40% of households exceeding 1 000 kWh in the third trimester of 2024 (summer). With rising temperatures and economic progress, electricity consumption from increased use of cooling appliances is expected to grow, particularly during peak hours.

Increasing peak electricity demand can pose a serious risk of disruption to the electricity system. Robust energy planning and energy efficiency measures can help level demand peaks and build resilience against the seasonal peak demand. In July 2024, Algeria recorded its highest electricity peak demand to date of 19.1 GW. To address this challenge, Sonelgaz, the state-owned utility and gas company, undertook extensive preparations beginning in September 2023, including the completion of critical projects aimed at ensuring a stable electricity supply during the high-demand summer months. These efforts included significant state-funded investments, such as bolstering electricity production and an urgent programme to strengthen the electrical transmission network. The infrastructure now includes equipment capable of withstanding temperatures exceeding 55 °C. The initiative specifically targeted 16 provinces that had experienced exceptionally high electricity consumption the previous year, ensuring the country could meet the unprecedented demand effectively. A remaining challenge is to connect the southern electricity networks with the national northern grid, to enable southern provinces to benefit from northern surplus power generation and better help balance the grid.

Hydrocarbon extraction operations could become more costly due to extreme heat in central provinces with large oil and gas deposits. To withstand thermal stress, operations must invest in high-quality equipment and machinery and adopt increased maintenance routines. In addition, extreme heat requires greater attention to worker safety to avoid heat-related deaths and hospitalisations. Extreme temperatures and heatwaves can also pose challenges to electricity transmission and generation. At times when the need for cooling drives up electricity demand through increased use of air conditioning, this exacerbates the threat to electricity security. Standard transmission lines are conceived for a maximum current-carrying capacity around 25 °C and require derating when ambient air temperature increases. Further, heat can cause the metal in transmission and distribution lines to expand, leading to sagging, which can cause power lines to touch trees or other obstacles, increasing the risk of power outages and sparking wildfires. Regarding electricity generation, extreme heat can lower the efficiency of natural gas-fired power plants, which account for 99% of electricity generation in Algeria. Natural gas combustion and combined-cycle power plants can be affected by high ambient temperatures, as their performance is linked to air mass flow, which decreases when ambient temperatures rise. For instance, a study on a natural gas combined-cycle power plant in Türkiye showed that an increase in ambient temperature from 8 °C to 23 °C reduced electricity generation capacity from around 228 MW to 197 MW and led to higher running costs through a fall in efficiency, from 43.3% to 42.7%. Furthermore, as ambient temperatures increase in the future, gas power plants requiring cooling become less efficient, compounding the impact on overall performance. In a low-emissions scenario (Below 2 °C), over 70% of current installed capacity of natural gas-fired power plants would be exposed to at least additional 20 to 40 days with maximum temperature above 35 °C compared with pre‑industrial levels (1850‑1900) by the end of the century. In a high-emissions scenario (Above 3 °C), the entirety of natural gas-fired power plants would be exposed to at least 40 additional days of maximum temperature above 35 °C, with over 80% of natural gas capacity experiencing at least 60 additional days of maximum temperature above 35 °C.

Precipitation

In Algeria, about 85% of the land mass is classified as desert area, characterised by extremely low and irregular rainfall, averaging about 150 mm annually. In the High Plains and the Saharan Atlas, precipitation remains sparse and irregular, ranging between 200 mm and 400 mm per year. Along the Mediterranean coast and in the Tell Atlas, precipitation patterns vary, decreasing from east to west (from 1 000 mm to 400 mm annually) and from north to south (from 1 000 mm to less than 130 mm annually). Precipitation is seasonal, with most rainfall occurring in the months between November and February.

In climate projections, precipitation trends differ greatly across the country. The populated northern regions are expected to experience even steeper declines in precipitation than the desert south, which, in a high-emissions scenario, could see an overall increase in rainfall. In both emissions scenarios, northern Algeria would see a decrease in precipitation, with reductions reaching up to 22% and up to 35% in low- and high-emissions scenarios, respectively. Conversely, the south could experience an increase in precipitation, increasing by up to 71% in a high-emissions scenario, outweighing the decreases in the north, leading to an average increase in precipitation across the country.

As precipitation decreases, the risk of droughts is rising in Algeria, contributing to the desertification of thousands of hectares annually, with the High Plains being particularly at risk. Algeria is among the countries that already face high water stress, further exacerbated by drought conditions. Water availability is critical in several key energy operations, including cooling in thermal power plants, oil and gas extraction, and mining for critical minerals. Water scarcity can significantly disrupt energy production, not only by limiting water availability but also by escalating operational costs. This forces energy producers to invest in costly alternatives or face operational restrictions. Algeria is significantly expanding its desalination capacity at the Mediterranean coast to address growing water scarcity challenges, particularly in light of climate-related pressures. The country is investing USD 3 billion in the second phase of its ambitious desalination programme, part of a larger USD 5.4 billion initiative, to build six plants by 2030. Algeria’s existing gas-powered fleet is partially shielded from drought risks as fewer than 20% of the plants rely on water-based cooling and use saline water from the Mediterranean Sea.

In Algeria, drought risks and a rising threat of flooding go hand in hand as climate change is causing more extreme precipitation events, where heavy rain often follows prolonged periods of drought. During such conditions, the ground is likely unable to absorb heavy rainfalls rapidly enough, creating high surface run‑off which can contribute to flash floods and river overflows. Compared with previous decades, Algeria experienced a notable rise in flood events between 2010 and 2022, highlighting the country's growing vulnerability, with severe social and economic impacts. The Algerian government has reported spending an average of USD 255 million per year over the past 15 years to respond to natural hazards, with 70% of the amount allocated to floods. Floods and excessive precipitation can impact energy infrastructure, especially the electricity grid and operations, such as extraction and refining activities. In September 2024, severe flooding impacted regions in southern and western Algeria, displacing 280 families in Béchar and damaging road and electricity infrastructure. 

Other climate risks

Caused by a combination of high temperatures and drought conditions, wildfires pose a significant threat to Algeria's energy infrastructure and assets. According to the General Directorate of Forests, about 3 000 fire outbreaks were recorded annually over the period 2010‑2019, burning nearly 310 km² a year. Wildfires pose substantial risks to human lives, property and the natural environment, and emergency responses to these events depend heavily on the continued and reliable operation of critical infrastructure including energy. Fires can damage transmission lines, power plants and pipelines as well as extraction and refining activities, leading to widespread energy outages and disruptions. For example, in July 2023, wildfires on the Mediterranean coast caused devastating loss of life, forced people to evacuate and cut power for 1 700 homes. In response, Algeria’s government implemented new policies, improved disaster response and invested in new equipment, including the use of drone technology and high-resolution cameras using artificial intelligence, to monitor wildfire hotspots more effectively. By 2024, the impact of observed wildfires was notably less severe, with no reported fatalities as the fire season concluded in August.

Algeria's northern coastline, stretching about 2 450 km along the Mediterranean Sea, is relatively densely populated and hosts a significant portion of the country's energy infrastructure and assets. The coast is increasingly exposed to rising sea levels because of climate change. Since 1993, global sea levels have risen by around 100 mm, with 2023 marking a record high: The rate of global mean sea level rise in the past ten years (2014‑2023) is more than twice the rate of sea level rise in the period 1993‑2002. The IPCC projects that the Mediterranean Sea level will continue to rise in the coming decades and centuries. Compared with 1990‑2014, sea levels could rise by 40 mm by the end of the century in a low-emissions scenario (Below 2°C). In a high-emissions scenario (Above 3°C), sea levels could rise by up to 0.6 metres by the end of the century compared with 1990‑2014. A study done on the central part of the Algerian coast, close to Zemmouri, showed that in 2022 52% of the examined coastline had high to very high physical coastal vulnerability, taking into account sea level rise, coastal slope, mean tidal range, wave height and coastal erosion rate. Sea level rise poses significant risks to coastal areas in Algeria, potentially exacerbating coastal erosion and flooding, resulting in increased risks of property damage and exposure of energy infrastructure. Further scientific assessments of risks to power plants, refineries and the electricity grid can guide measures to cope with the projected sea level rise and will help energy companies and investors incorporate sea level rise risks into their plans for future operation. In a first step, Algeria updated its National Strategy for Integrated Coastal Zone Management 2020‑2030. The implementation of coastal protection measures (e.g. maritime walls, submersible barriers, soil fixation, artificial nourishment with sand, anti‑flood structures and nature-based solutions) could contribute to enhancement of overall resilience against sea level rise.

Another climate risk, identified by Algeria’s 2024 law on the prevention of major risks and disaster management, are violent sandstorms. Due to the Middle East and North Africa region’s proximity to the Sahara Desert, the region is one of the dustiest in the world. Algeria, and especially the Algerian Sahara, are susceptible to sand and dust storms. In the last decade, the changing climate increased the frequency of sandstorms. In March 2022, for example, Météo Algérie, the National Meteorological Office, issued strong wind and sandstorm warnings for some of the northern provinces. Apart from health impacts, sand and dust storms can have significant impact on the energy sector. Sand and dust storms can cause damage to energy assets and infrastructure, driving up maintenance needs and associated cost and potentially bringing operations to halt. Sand and dust storms may especially reduce the efficiency of solar PV generation through reduced solar radiation due to airborne dust as well as sand and dust accumulation on panels. Algeria has a goal to install 15 GW of renewable energy by 2030, predominantly solar PV, of which more than 3 GW has already been realised. Solar PV project development should integrate resilience approaches into the planning and development process of sites to prevent decreased power generation, including regular cleaning protocols for the solar PV modules, coating of panels to reduce dust adherence, and establishing buffers with native vegetation to reduce soil erosion and spread of dust by wind. Relaunched in 2023, Algeria’s Green Dam project can play an important role in mitigating desertification. 

As a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Algeria has demonstrated its commitment to climate actions through the submission of national documents such as its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution in 2016; its Initial, Second and Third National Communications in 2001, 2010 and 2023; and its First Biennial Update Report in 2023. The Fourth National Communication as well as Algeria's National Adaptation Plan (NAP) are currently under preparation. In 2023, the Green Climate Fund approved Algeria’s request to advance its NAP process, addressing short- and medium-term adaptation needs while laying the groundwork for long-term strategies. The joint project is set for a duration of three years (2023‑2026) and is being implemented in collaboration with Algeria’s Ministry of Environment and Renewable Energies, with support from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

Algeria launched in 2019 the National Climate Plan (PNC) 2020‑2030, which aligns closely with other national strategic documents, such as Algeria's economic and social strategy, the 2021 Government Action Plan, the National Spatial Planning Scheme and strategies related to the environment, including the National Strategy for the Environment and Sustainable Development (2017‑2035) and the National Strategy for Biodiversity (2016‑2030), as well as Algeria's international obligations. Focus areas in adaptation include coastal risk management, flood risk management and water management in general as well as mitigating erosion and desertification. In 2021, the Ministry of Energy Transition and Renewable Energy, in collaboration with other ministries, released a White Book on the Impact of Climate Change in Algeria, building upon the priorities outlined in the PNC.

Addressing impacts of climate change, these measures are further supported by the National Delegation for Major Risks, established in 2011. The delegation overseeing disaster risk management in Algeria has taken significant steps, including partnering with the World Bank in 2023 for the study Diagnostic on Climate and Disaster Risk Management in Algeria. This initiative evaluated Algeria’s disaster risk policies and management systems. It highlights Algeria’s robust normative framework for risk management, emphasising prevention through policies such as the National Drought Plan (2019) and the National Strategy for Flood Prevention and Management by 2030. Additionally, Algeria is fully committed to international frameworks related to disaster risk management, including the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015). However, challenges persist, including gaps in implementation tools, insufficient sectoral co‑ordination, and a need for more detailed climate and disaster risk analyses to better guide planning and investment decisions. Strengthening collaboration across sectors and administrative levels as well as refining policy execution are critical next steps for improving Algeria’s disaster resilience, including climate disaster resilience.

Algeria’s energy policies do not explicitly consider climate resilience, but they prioritise renewable energy development and energy efficiency as critical components of the country’s energy transition. Algeria has significant potential for renewable energies and the government has given priority to promoting renewable energy by adopting its Renewable Energy Development Program. Algeria aims to install 15 GW of renewable capacity, predominantly solar PV, of which more than 3 GW has already been launched. This supports the country's commitment to diversifying its energy portfolio and helping make more production available for export, while reducing emissions. Diversification of energy sources can help in building a climate-resilient energy system.

Energy consumption in Algeria has significantly increased over the past decades, and demand continues to grow. To promote more responsible use of energy and preserve resources, Algeria launched an updated energy efficiency programme tailored to the three end-use sectors: buildings, transport and industry. By 2030, the programme aims to save 63 Mtoe and avoid emissions of around 193 Mt CO₂ through measures such as enhanced thermal insulation in buildings, adoption of efficient technologies such as solar water heaters and LED lighting, promotion of cleaner fuels in transport, and energy audits in industry. This contributes to slowing growth in peak demand, which reached new highs in July 2024.

Algeria has recognised the importance of considering climate change in its policies and has done considerable work on disaster risk management. However, policies and national frameworks are still evolving, and it will be essential to put a particular focus on the climate resilience of the energy sector. The completion of the NAP and the inclusion of energy-specific measures can provide a solid foundation for this process. To enhance climate resilience of its energy sector, Algeria can prioritise demand management and energy efficiency measures to curb future growth in peak electricity use. Diversifying its electricity mix accompanied with investments in grid modernisations and distributed energy systems can also help improve security risks. Amid efforts to interconnect grids, designers could consider flexible and modular designs that could allow networks to be operated in isolation or in concert with the wider grid in the face of disruptions. Such efforts need to be combined with robust protocols and measures to reduce desertification and mitigate disaster risks from wildfires and flash floods.